NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Tuesday 20 October 2026

Trading day 2026-10-20

Market Snapshot

NEM average price reaches $97.4/MWh with 18.0 negative hours in Victoria

Regional prices ranged from $69.9/MWh in Victoria to $113.0/MWh in New South Wales, with Victoria recording 216 negative intervals totalling 18.0 hours. South Australia had 124 negative intervals, and no region recorded cap intervals.

New South Wales recorded the highest demand peak of 8354.0 MW at 18:40, while coal supplied 45.5 per cent of total generation. Rooftop solar contributed 18.1 per cent and wind 16.2 per cent, as batteries discharged 13889.0 MWh with a net of negative 6334.0 MWh.

The renewable share peaked at 74.9 per cent at 11:55, and total emissions were 279306.0 tonnes, down 16.9 per cent from the same weekday last week.

AEMO issued notices regarding a forecast LOR2 in South Australia for 23 October at 05:34, 10:04, 10:59 and 13:58. AEMO issued a forecast LOR1 for South Australia at 16:15, and a MT PASA notice at 13:31.

Today · Pre dispatch forecasts show Tasmania reaching $855.25/MWh at 09:00, and AEMO projects an LOR2 in South Australia from 04:30 on 23 October.

In context · The NEM average price of $97.4/MWh ranked first over the last seven days, above the seven day average of $60.4/MWh. This compares with a NEM average of $122.6/MWh on the same weekday last week.

NSW $113VIC $70QLD $103SA $98TAS $103
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $45 $100 $155 $210 -$50 $18 $85 $153 $220 -$20 $33 $85 $138 $190 -$110 -$22 $65 $153 $240 $0 $48 $95 $143 $190 05:00 11:00 17:00 23:00 05:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $113 $121 -$11 $231 32 0
QLD $103 $109 -$25 $226 38 0
SA $98 $121 -$118 $262 124 0
VIC $70 $78 -$50 $243 216 0
TAS $103 $103 $88 $321 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,354MW
19:40
Trough
4,387MW
13:45
Energy
309.8GWh
QLD
Peak
7,488MW
19:05
Trough
4,669MW
14:05
Energy
286.8GWh
SA
Peak
1,557MW
20:05
Trough
255MW
15:05
Energy
53.5GWh
VIC
Peak
6,371MW
19:30
Trough
3,711MW
12:50
Energy
239.6GWh
TAS
Peak
1,180MW
19:05
Trough
895MW
05:05
Energy
49.1GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,3900$1620 Oct, 18:00
LOWERREG$1,1620$1420 Oct, 15:40
RAISE6SEC$2390$020 Oct, 07:05
LOWER5MIN$2390$1020 Oct, 15:35
RAISE60SEC$2260$020 Oct, 10:30
LOWER60SEC$1890$120 Oct, 15:30
LOWER6SEC$630$020 Oct, 14:50
RAISE5MIN$420$021 Oct, 03:25
Total$10,550

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$14,9300$1620 Oct, 18:00
LOWER6SEC$9,2320$4720 Oct, 15:40
LOWERREG$7,3210$2020 Oct, 15:40
LOWER60SEC$6,5440$4020 Oct, 15:45
LOWER5MIN$6980$1520 Oct, 15:40
RAISE6SEC$4570$020 Oct, 07:05
RAISE60SEC$3590$020 Oct, 07:40
RAISE5MIN$460$020 Oct, 12:55
Total$39,587

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$14,2620$1620 Oct, 18:00
LOWERREG$2,9060$1420 Oct, 15:40
RAISE60SEC$4540$020 Oct, 10:30
RAISE6SEC$4210$020 Oct, 07:05
LOWER60SEC$3660$120 Oct, 15:30
LOWER5MIN$2820$1020 Oct, 15:35
LOWER6SEC$820$020 Oct, 14:50
RAISE5MIN$740$021 Oct, 03:25
Total$18,847

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,5510$1620 Oct, 18:00
LOWERREG$5,9580$1420 Oct, 15:40
LOWER5MIN$1,4280$1020 Oct, 15:35
LOWER60SEC$4940$120 Oct, 15:30
RAISE6SEC$4090$020 Oct, 07:05
RAISE60SEC$3720$020 Oct, 10:30
LOWER6SEC$1650$020 Oct, 14:50
RAISE5MIN$560$021 Oct, 03:25
Total$18,433

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISE6SEC$83,3280$25820 Oct, 22:10
LOWER6SEC$13,8800$320 Oct, 05:05
RAISEREG$11,1650$17420 Oct, 22:10
LOWERREG$4,1490$320 Oct, 17:05
RAISE60SEC$3,2310$1320 Oct, 18:55
LOWER60SEC$2,1690$120 Oct, 05:10
RAISE5MIN$3660$020 Oct, 05:05
LOWER5MIN$1290$020 Oct, 13:55
Total$118,417

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,232 MW at 20:00 as NSW spot hit $170/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,130 MW at 19:30 as QLD spot hit $171/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 659 MW at 20:00 as VIC spot hit $163/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 438 MW at 08:30 as SA spot hit $48/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,165 MW at 20:00 as TAS spot hit $100/MWh.

Discharged
5,144MWh
peak 1,232 MW · 20:00
Charged
6,656MWh
peak 1,304 MW
Net
-1,512MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,353MWh
peak 1,130 MW · 19:30
Charged
5,646MWh
peak 1,192 MW
Net
-1,293MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,343MWh
peak 659 MW · 20:00
Charged
5,206MWh
peak 1,229 MW
Net
-2,864MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
45%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,049MWh
peak 438 MW · 08:30
Charged
2,714MWh
peak 488 MW
Net
-665MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
75%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
13,889MWh
peak 3,165 MW · 20:00
Charged
20,223MWh
peak 3,418 MW
Net
-6,334MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
69%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$200-$100$0$100$200$30000:3007:3714:4521:5205:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
5,144MWh
-1,512
#2QLD
4,353MWh
-1,293
#3VIC
2,343MWh
-2,864
#4SA
2,049MWh
-665

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 46.0%
  • Coal46.0% · 90.3 GWh
  • Gas2.3% · 4.5 GWh
  • Hydro3.8% · 7.5 GWh
  • Wind7.1% · 13.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)15.8% · 31.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)22.4% · 43.9 GWh
  • Battery2.6% · 5.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.7%
  • Coal58.7% · 113.8 GWh
  • Gas1.1% · 2.2 GWh
  • Hydro2.2% · 4.3 GWh
  • Wind11.7% · 22.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.8% · 17.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.2% · 29.4 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 4.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 45.5%
  • Coal45.5% · 78.1 GWh
  • Gas1.4% · 2.4 GWh
  • Hydro3.2% · 5.4 GWh
  • Wind28.6% · 49.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.6% · 7.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.3% · 26.3 GWh
  • Battery1.4% · 2.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 36.7%
  • Gas18.0% · 5.6 GWh
  • Wind31.7% · 9.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.0% · 2.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)36.7% · 11.3 GWh
  • Battery6.6% · 2.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 73.3%
  • Gas3.1% · 0.9 GWh
  • Hydro73.3% · 20.2 GWh
  • Wind18.3% · 5.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)5.3% · 1.5 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.3 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:009.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:008.1 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:001.7 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:001.2 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
49.1%
VIC · Daily renewable share
58.5%
QLD · Daily renewable share
43.3%
SA · Daily renewable share
60.4%
TAS · Daily renewable share
96.9%
Peak instantaneous
74.9%
at 12:55
Daily NEM-wide share
49.7%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    49.1%
  • VIC
    58.5%
  • QLD
    43.3%
  • SA
    60.4%
  • TAS
    96.9%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +22.1 GWh 10 —
NSW1-QLD1 −14.7 GWh 22 —
VIC1-NSW1 +18.6 GWh 29 —
V-SA −22.7 GWh 0 —
T-V-MNSP1 +0 MWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
279.3k tCO₂
▼ 16.9% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 81.2k tCO₂ 0.407 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 100.8k tCO₂ 0.514 tCO₂/MWh
SA 2.7k tCO₂ 0.085 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 94.1k tCO₂ 0.551 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 566 tCO₂ 0.021 tCO₂/MWh