NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Wednesday 21 October 2026

Trading day 2026-10-21

Market Snapshot

NEM average price reaches 113.0 $/MWh with zero cap intervals

NSW recorded the highest regional average price at 123.7 $/MWh, while SA had the lowest at 80.8 $/MWh. SA experienced 14.7 negative price hours, and VIC recorded 1.0 negative price hour. No region recorded any cap intervals. NSW demand peaked at 8482 MW at 18:45, and QLD demand reached 7627 MW at 18:30. Coal accounted for 51.1 per cent of the generation mix, followed by rooftop solar at 18.1 per cent. Batteries discharged 20034 MWh with a net position of -371 MWh. FCAS costs were highest for the RAISE6SEC service at 50661 dollars. The RAISE6SEC price peaked at 148 $/MW in TAS. Total emissions were 318629 tonnes, 0.9 per cent below the same weekday last week. AEMO issued a notice at 08:52 cancelling a forecast LOR2 in SA for 23 October. AEMO issued another notice at 14:43 cancelling a forecast LOR1 in SA for 23 October.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts show SA reaching 591.89 $/MWh at 17:30. AEMO projects an LOR2 condition in SA from 09:30 on 23 October.

In context · The NEM average price of 113.0 $/MWh was 49.3 $/MWh above the seven-day average. This ranked as the highest NEM average price of the last seven days.

NSW $124VIC $109QLD $119SA $81TAS $98
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $58 $115 $173 $230 -$10 $53 $115 $178 $240 $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 -$100 -$12 $75 $163 $250 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 05:00 11:00 17:00 23:00 05:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $124 $125 $88 $231 0 0
QLD $119 $120 $74 $205 0 0
SA $81 $115 -$118 $255 176 0
VIC $109 $115 -$21 $338 12 0
TAS $98 $98 $88 $150 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,482MW
19:45
Trough
4,951MW
13:05
Energy
325.1GWh
QLD
Peak
7,627MW
19:30
Trough
4,730MW
11:45
Energy
293.7GWh
SA
Peak
1,595MW
20:25
Trough
21MW
13:30
Energy
47.3GWh
VIC
Peak
6,242MW
19:00
Trough
3,522MW
13:40
Energy
236.4GWh
TAS
Peak
1,123MW
20:05
Trough
764MW
13:00
Energy
46.3GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,9400$1621 Oct, 09:25
LOWERREG$1,3030$721 Oct, 08:10
RAISE6SEC$2520$021 Oct, 07:30
RAISE60SEC$2270$022 Oct, 00:50
LOWER60SEC$2230$021 Oct, 08:30
LOWER5MIN$1110$021 Oct, 15:40
RAISE5MIN$550$021 Oct, 09:15
LOWER6SEC$480$021 Oct, 05:10
Total$9,159

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$16,1990$1621 Oct, 09:25
LOWERREG$6,3510$721 Oct, 08:10
RAISE6SEC$4690$021 Oct, 07:30
LOWER60SEC$4500$021 Oct, 08:30
RAISE60SEC$3760$022 Oct, 00:50
LOWER5MIN$1580$021 Oct, 15:40
LOWER6SEC$590$021 Oct, 05:10
RAISE5MIN$580$021 Oct, 09:15
Total$24,120

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$11,5200$1621 Oct, 09:25
LOWERREG$2,4790$721 Oct, 08:10
RAISE60SEC$4270$022 Oct, 00:50
RAISE6SEC$3980$021 Oct, 07:30
LOWER60SEC$2950$021 Oct, 08:30
RAISE5MIN$950$021 Oct, 09:15
LOWER5MIN$840$021 Oct, 15:40
LOWER6SEC$460$021 Oct, 05:10
Total$15,343

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,0160$1621 Oct, 09:25
LOWERREG$2,8230$721 Oct, 08:10
LOWER60SEC$4660$021 Oct, 08:30
RAISE6SEC$4310$021 Oct, 07:30
RAISE60SEC$3680$022 Oct, 00:50
LOWER5MIN$1540$021 Oct, 15:40
LOWER6SEC$1080$021 Oct, 05:10
RAISE5MIN$720$021 Oct, 09:15
Total$9,438

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISE6SEC$49,1110$14821 Oct, 11:15
LOWER6SEC$11,6780$321 Oct, 05:05
RAISEREG$8,8530$6721 Oct, 12:15
LOWERREG$4,6780$321 Oct, 06:05
RAISE60SEC$2,3830$322 Oct, 04:35
LOWER60SEC$2,2690$121 Oct, 10:25
RAISE5MIN$2050$021 Oct, 06:20
LOWER5MIN$1760$221 Oct, 16:05
Total$79,353

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 946 MW at 20:00 as NSW spot hit $124/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 863 MW at 19:00 as QLD spot hit $142/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,254 MW at 19:30 as VIC spot hit $125/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 481 MW at 20:30 as SA spot hit $128/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,235 MW at 20:00 as TAS spot hit $100/MWh.

Discharged
6,269MWh
peak 946 MW · 20:00
Charged
8,028MWh
peak 1,571 MW
Net
-1,759MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
78%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,216MWh
peak 863 MW · 19:00
Charged
5,302MWh
peak 954 MW
Net
-1,086MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
80%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
6,652MWh
peak 1,254 MW · 19:30
Charged
5,022MWh
peak 1,317 MW
Net
+1,630MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
132%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,897MWh
peak 481 MW · 20:30
Charged
2,052MWh
peak 366 MW
Net
+845MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
141%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
20,034MWh
peak 3,235 MW · 20:00
Charged
20,404MWh
peak 3,497 MW
Net
-371MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
98%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100$0$100$200$30000:3007:3714:4521:5205:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1VIC
6,652MWh
+1,630
#2NSW
6,269MWh
-1,759
#3QLD
4,216MWh
-1,086
#4SA
2,897MWh
+845

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 51.5%
  • Coal51.5% · 109.6 GWh
  • Gas2.1% · 4.5 GWh
  • Hydro3.6% · 7.8 GWh
  • Wind5.7% · 12.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)14.8% · 31.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)19.3% · 41.1 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 6.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 63.3%
  • Coal63.3% · 125.0 GWh
  • Gas1.2% · 2.4 GWh
  • Hydro2.1% · 4.1 GWh
  • Wind8.8% · 17.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.8% · 15.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.7% · 29.1 GWh
  • Battery2.1% · 4.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 55.3%
  • Coal55.3% · 86.9 GWh
  • Gas2.9% · 4.5 GWh
  • Hydro7.2% · 11.3 GWh
  • Wind4.9% · 7.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.4% · 11.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.1% · 26.9 GWh
  • Battery4.2% · 6.7 GWh
  • Other1.0% · 1.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 41.3%
  • Gas21.0% · 7.6 GWh
  • Wind21.3% · 7.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)6.1% · 2.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)41.3% · 15.0 GWh
  • Battery8.0% · 2.9 GWh
  • Other2.4% · 0.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 79.2%
  • Gas3.2% · 0.9 GWh
  • Hydro79.2% · 21.2 GWh
  • Wind9.4% · 2.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)8.2% · 2.2 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.7 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:008.3 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:002.2 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:001.2 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
46.1%
VIC · Daily renewable share
41.9%
QLD · Daily renewable share
37.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
67.9%
TAS · Daily renewable share
96.4%
Peak instantaneous
69.1%
at 12:50
Daily NEM-wide share
43.0%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    46.1%
  • VIC
    41.9%
  • QLD
    37.5%
  • SA
    67.9%
  • TAS
    96.4%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +14.8 GWh 32 —
NSW1-QLD1 −6.1 GWh 28 —
VIC1-NSW1 +2.3 GWh 26 —
V-SA −9.2 GWh 28 —
T-V-MNSP1 +0 MWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
318.6k tCO₂
▼ 0.9% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 97.7k tCO₂ 0.451 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 110.8k tCO₂ 0.557 tCO₂/MWh
SA 3.7k tCO₂ 0.098 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 105.9k tCO₂ 0.664 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 574 tCO₂ 0.022 tCO₂/MWh