NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Monday 19 October 2026

Trading day 2026-10-19

Market Snapshot

Victoria records negative daily average price of -$5.8/MWh

NSW and Queensland recorded average prices of $104.3/MWh and $103.0/MWh respectively, with zero negative hours across both regions. Victoria and South Australia recorded 33.7 and 25.3 negative hours respectively, with South Australia reaching a minimum of -$170.0/MWh at 15:25.

NEM demand peaked at 8296 MW in NSW at 18:35, while Queensland demand reached 7747 MW at 18:20, coinciding with peaks in Victoria and Tasmania.

Coal accounted for 46.7 per cent of generation, followed by wind at 20.8 per cent and rooftop solar at 16.1 per cent. Batteries discharged 14,205 MWh across the NEM, finishing the trading day with a net of -3228 MWh.

Total FCAS costs were low, with the highest cost being $49,977 for the raise regulation service, and no FCAS price spikes occurred during the trading day.

AEMO's notice at 15:01 stated a forecast LOR2 in South Australia for 22 October. AEMO's notice at 21:20 stated the cancellation of this forecast LOR2 in South Australia. Total emissions were 274,917 tCO2, representing an 8.6 per cent decrease from the same weekday last week.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts indicate prices reaching $470.57/MWh in NSW and $445.0/MWh in Queensland at 19:30.

In context · The NEM average price ranked fifth out of the last seven days and was below the $161.8/MWh recorded on the same weekday last week. Victoria's average price of -$5.8/MWh was the lowest in its seven-day range, which averaged $31.3/MWh.

NSW $104VIC $-6QLD $103SA $15TAS $98
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $35 $70 $105 $140 -$30 $3 $35 $68 $100 $0 $35 $70 $105 $140 -$110 -$57 -$5 $48 $100 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 05:00 11:00 17:00 23:00 05:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $104 $106 $65 $137 0 0
QLD $103 $104 $66 $131 0 0
SA $15 $19 -$170 $116 304 0
VIC -$6 -$4 -$44 $75 404 0
TAS $98 $98 -$14 $106 8 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,296MW
19:35
Trough
4,561MW
13:50
Energy
313.6GWh
QLD
Peak
7,747MW
19:20
Trough
5,460MW
04:10
Energy
306.1GWh
SA
Peak
1,613MW
20:20
Trough
797MW
13:25
Energy
61.7GWh
VIC
Peak
6,288MW
19:20
Trough
3,305MW
12:00
Energy
222.1GWh
TAS
Peak
1,151MW
19:20
Trough
759MW
12:45
Energy
45.9GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,0630$2019 Oct, 16:35
LOWERREG$5250$819 Oct, 16:30
LOWER60SEC$1660$119 Oct, 16:20
RAISE60SEC$1100$019 Oct, 06:25
LOWER5MIN$970$019 Oct, 14:55
RAISE6SEC$910$019 Oct, 17:40
LOWER6SEC$550$019 Oct, 16:15
RAISE5MIN$310$019 Oct, 10:30
Total$10,137

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$11,1360$2019 Oct, 16:35
LOWERREG$6,0670$819 Oct, 16:30
LOWER60SEC$4870$119 Oct, 16:20
RAISE60SEC$3180$019 Oct, 06:25
RAISE6SEC$2690$019 Oct, 17:40
LOWER5MIN$1760$019 Oct, 14:55
LOWER6SEC$1050$019 Oct, 16:15
RAISE5MIN$390$019 Oct, 10:30
Total$18,598

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$15,2530$2019 Oct, 16:35
LOWERREG$2,8310$819 Oct, 16:30
RAISE60SEC$3390$019 Oct, 06:25
LOWER60SEC$3390$119 Oct, 16:20
RAISE6SEC$2070$019 Oct, 17:40
LOWER6SEC$850$019 Oct, 16:15
RAISE5MIN$800$019 Oct, 10:30
LOWER5MIN$670$019 Oct, 14:55
Total$19,201

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$5,9250$819 Oct, 16:30
RAISEREG$5,8290$2019 Oct, 16:35
LOWER60SEC$4510$119 Oct, 16:20
RAISE60SEC$2890$019 Oct, 06:25
RAISE6SEC$2430$019 Oct, 17:40
LOWER5MIN$1640$019 Oct, 14:55
LOWER6SEC$1380$019 Oct, 16:15
RAISE5MIN$510$019 Oct, 10:30
Total$13,090

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWER6SEC$16,5180$319 Oct, 05:35
RAISEREG$8,6960$519 Oct, 05:35
RAISE6SEC$4,8640$2019 Oct, 06:25
LOWERREG$4,4320$319 Oct, 11:20
LOWER60SEC$3,1390$319 Oct, 05:35
RAISE60SEC$2,3070$319 Oct, 05:45
LOWER5MIN$3220$119 Oct, 06:35
RAISE5MIN$2840$019 Oct, 05:50
Total$40,562

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,016 MW at 19:30 as NSW spot hit $119/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 863 MW at 19:00 as QLD spot hit $125/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,234 MW at 20:00 as VIC spot hit $15/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 308 MW at 20:00 as SA spot hit $77/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,256 MW at 20:00 as TAS spot hit $102/MWh.

Discharged
5,335MWh
peak 1,016 MW · 19:30
Charged
6,624MWh
peak 1,466 MW
Net
-1,289MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
81%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,763MWh
peak 863 MW · 19:00
Charged
3,267MWh
peak 672 MW
Net
+496MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
115%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,067MWh
peak 1,234 MW · 20:00
Charged
4,959MWh
peak 973 MW
Net
-891MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
82%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,040MWh
peak 308 MW · 20:00
Charged
2,584MWh
peak 322 MW
Net
-1,544MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
40%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
14,205MWh
peak 3,256 MW · 20:00
Charged
17,433MWh
peak 3,050 MW
Net
-3,228MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
81%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$200-$100$0$100$20000:3007:3714:4521:5205:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
5,335MWh
-1,289
#2VIC
4,067MWh
-891
#3QLD
3,763MWh
+496
#4SA
1,040MWh
-1,544

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 45.5%
  • Coal45.5% · 88.5 GWh
  • Gas0.6% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro3.7% · 7.1 GWh
  • Wind10.2% · 19.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)16.1% · 31.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)21.1% · 41.1 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 67.7%
  • Coal67.7% · 122.2 GWh
  • Gas1.2% · 2.1 GWh
  • Hydro1.1% · 2.0 GWh
  • Wind13.5% · 24.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.1% · 9.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)8.6% · 15.5 GWh
  • Battery2.1% · 3.8 GWh
  • Other0.9% · 1.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 43.8%
  • Coal43.8% · 74.2 GWh
  • Hydro1.4% · 2.4 GWh
  • Wind28.8% · 48.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.9% · 10.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.7% · 29.9 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 4.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 68.6%
  • Gas3.9% · 1.6 GWh
  • Wind68.6% · 28.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.7% · 0.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)23.4% · 9.6 GWh
  • Battery2.5% · 1.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 70.3%
  • Hydro70.3% · 18.4 GWh
  • Wind20.8% · 5.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)8.9% · 2.3 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.5 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:008.7 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:009.0 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:002.0 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:001.3 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
50.5%
VIC · Daily renewable share
62.3%
QLD · Daily renewable share
32.2%
SA · Daily renewable share
88.4%
TAS · Daily renewable share
92.7%
Peak instantaneous
67.7%
at 12:05
Daily NEM-wide share
51.0%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    50.5%
  • VIC
    62.3%
  • QLD
    32.2%
  • SA
    88.4%
  • TAS
    92.7%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +9.1 GWh 28 —
NSW1-QLD1 −29.0 GWh 12 —
VIC1-NSW1 +39.1 GWh 0 —
V-SA −14.2 GWh 17 —
T-V-MNSP1 −466 MWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
274.9k tCO₂
▼ 8.6% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 78.0k tCO₂ 0.394 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 108.0k tCO₂ 0.598 tCO₂/MWh
SA 702 tCO₂ 0.017 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 88.2k tCO₂ 0.517 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh