NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Saturday 10 October 2026

Trading day 2026-10-10

Market Snapshot

NSW reaches $23,200/MWh as VIC records 23.7 negative price hours

NSW averaged $217.80/MWh and recorded 0.2 cap hours. VIC averaged $14.80/MWh with 23.7 negative price hours, while SA and TAS recorded 19.8 and 21.2 negative hours respectively.

NSW recorded the highest demand peak of 7906 MW at 18:45. Coal contributed 46.3 per cent of the generation mix, followed by wind at 18.7 per cent and rooftop solar at 17.8 per cent. Batteries discharged 13,092 MWh with a net of -7110 MWh.

FCAS costs were highest for regulation raise at $35,381. Total emissions were 267,834 tCO2, 1.2 per cent above the same weekday last week.

AEMO's notice at 14:22 stated the cancellation of a forecast LOR1 in NSW for 12/10/2026.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts show QLD reaching $319.04/MWh at 19:30 and SA reaching $145.00/MWh at 18:30.

In context · The NEM average price ranked third out of the last seven days and was above the $53.50/MWh recorded on the same weekday last week. The NSW average of $217.80/MWh was the highest of its seven-day range of $80.90/MWh to $217.80/MWh.

NSW $218VIC $15QLD $106SA $47TAS $18
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $1.0k $2.0k $3.1k $4.1k -$130 -$62 $5 $73 $140 $0 $58 $115 $173 $230 -$30 $20 $70 $120 $170 -$110 -$50 $10 $70 $130 05:00 11:00 17:00 23:00 05:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $218 $229 $0 $23200 0 2
QLD $106 $110 $0 $251 0 0
SA $47 $65 -$29 $167 238 0
VIC $15 $27 -$148 $129 284 0
TAS $18 $19 -$158 $120 254 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
7,906MW
19:45
Trough
4,530MW
13:30
Energy
309.6GWh
QLD
Peak
7,257MW
19:35
Trough
4,116MW
11:10
Energy
276.5GWh
SA
Peak
1,361MW
20:25
Trough
74MW
14:50
Energy
41.6GWh
VIC
Peak
5,295MW
20:00
Trough
2,337MW
13:45
Energy
196.4GWh
TAS
Peak
1,057MW
19:05
Trough
709MW
13:20
Energy
43.5GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,7770$3510 Oct, 08:00
LOWERREG$1,1510$710 Oct, 06:45
RAISE6SEC$1580$010 Oct, 07:05
RAISE60SEC$1340$010 Oct, 06:30
LOWER60SEC$890$010 Oct, 14:35
RAISE5MIN$470$010 Oct, 07:10
LOWER5MIN$460$010 Oct, 16:10
LOWER6SEC$400$010 Oct, 15:25
Total$5,443

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,3470$3510 Oct, 08:00
LOWERREG$2,6520$710 Oct, 06:45
LOWER60SEC$3620$010 Oct, 14:35
RAISE6SEC$3570$010 Oct, 07:05
RAISE60SEC$3060$010 Oct, 06:30
LOWER6SEC$1050$010 Oct, 15:25
LOWER5MIN$990$010 Oct, 16:10
RAISE5MIN$550$010 Oct, 07:10
Total$10,284

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$12,6080$3510 Oct, 08:00
LOWERREG$4,1460$710 Oct, 06:45
RAISE6SEC$3510$010 Oct, 07:05
RAISE60SEC$3320$010 Oct, 06:30
LOWER60SEC$2400$010 Oct, 14:35
RAISE5MIN$1330$010 Oct, 07:10
LOWER6SEC$1070$010 Oct, 15:25
LOWER5MIN$870$010 Oct, 16:10
Total$18,005

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,7760$3510 Oct, 08:00
LOWERREG$3,4000$710 Oct, 06:45
LOWER60SEC$2520$010 Oct, 14:35
RAISE6SEC$2410$010 Oct, 07:05
RAISE60SEC$2150$010 Oct, 06:30
LOWER6SEC$960$010 Oct, 15:25
LOWER5MIN$860$010 Oct, 16:10
RAISE5MIN$370$010 Oct, 07:10
Total$8,101

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$16,1730$9610 Oct, 18:05
RAISEREG$8,8730$610 Oct, 20:35
RAISE6SEC$8670$010 Oct, 05:05
RAISE60SEC$8590$010 Oct, 05:05
LOWER6SEC$8080$4610 Oct, 22:55
LOWER60SEC$760$110 Oct, 22:55
RAISE5MIN$160$010 Oct, 22:20
LOWER5MIN$20$010 Oct, 16:10
Total$27,675

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 945 MW at 19:30 as NSW spot hit $184/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,246 MW at 20:00 as QLD spot hit $149/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 604 MW at 23:00 as VIC spot hit $97/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 249 MW at 00:30 as SA spot hit $101/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,648 MW at 20:00 as TAS spot hit $88/MWh.

Discharged
4,447MWh
peak 945 MW · 19:30
Charged
6,634MWh
peak 1,297 MW
Net
-2,187MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
67%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,450MWh
peak 1,246 MW · 20:00
Charged
6,033MWh
peak 1,202 MW
Net
-1,583MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
74%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,094MWh
peak 604 MW · 23:00
Charged
5,398MWh
peak 1,150 MW
Net
-2,304MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
57%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,100MWh
peak 249 MW · 00:30
Charged
2,136MWh
peak 471 MW
Net
-1,036MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
52%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
13,092MWh
peak 2,648 MW · 20:00
Charged
20,202MWh
peak 3,757 MW
Net
-7,110MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
65%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$2k$0$2k$4k$6k00:3007:3714:4521:5205:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
4,450MWh
-1,583
#2NSW
4,447MWh
-2,187
#3VIC
3,094MWh
-2,304
#4SA
1,100MWh
-1,036

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 42.1%
  • Coal42.1% · 73.6 GWh
  • Gas2.0% · 3.5 GWh
  • Hydro6.4% · 11.3 GWh
  • Wind15.5% · 27.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)13.2% · 23.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.2% · 31.9 GWh
  • Battery2.5% · 4.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.7%
  • Coal60.7% · 122.5 GWh
  • Gas2.4% · 4.8 GWh
  • Hydro3.0% · 6.1 GWh
  • Wind7.6% · 15.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.2% · 18.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.8% · 29.8 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 4.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 50.2%
  • Coal50.2% · 75.4 GWh
  • Hydro1.1% · 1.6 GWh
  • Wind24.7% · 37.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.6% · 5.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.3% · 27.5 GWh
  • Battery2.1% · 3.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 52.2%
  • Gas11.1% · 4.7 GWh
  • Wind52.2% · 21.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.7% · 1.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)31.3% · 13.2 GWh
  • Battery2.6% · 1.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 45.4%
  • Hydro44.4% · 7.9 GWh
  • Wind45.4% · 8.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.1% · 1.8 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.2 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:009.9 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:007.4 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:002.2 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:001.2 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
48.0%
VIC · Daily renewable share
54.2%
QLD · Daily renewable share
41.6%
SA · Daily renewable share
99.0%
TAS · Daily renewable share
68.3%
Peak instantaneous
72.5%
at 11:55
Daily NEM-wide share
49.6%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    48.0%
  • VIC
    54.2%
  • QLD
    41.6%
  • SA
    99.0%
  • TAS
    68.3%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +38.3 GWh 4 —
NSW1-QLD1 −50.5 GWh 10 —
VIC1-NSW1 +22.0 GWh 16 —
V-SA +6.4 GWh 8 —
T-V-MNSP1 −10.7 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
267.8k tCO₂
▲ 1.2% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 66.3k tCO₂ 0.374 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 110.1k tCO₂ 0.540 tCO₂/MWh
SA 2.2k tCO₂ 0.052 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 89.2k tCO₂ 0.594 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh