NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Friday 9 October 2026

Trading day 2026-10-09

Market Snapshot

Victoria records an average price of -$7.8/MWh with 32.8 negative hours

New South Wales averaged $132.7/MWh with zero negative hours, while Queensland averaged $101.0/MWh with 10.7 negative hours. South Australia averaged $38.6/MWh with 22.7 negative hours, while Victoria and Tasmania recorded average prices of -$7.8/MWh and -$5.4/MWh. Victoria experienced 32.8 negative hours across the trading day, and Tasmania recorded 28.0 negative hours.

New South Wales recorded the highest demand peak of 8,264 MW at 18:10, while Queensland reached 7,540 MW at 18:05. Coal accounted for 41.7 per cent of generation, followed by wind at 20.4 per cent and rooftop solar at 19.0 per cent. Batteries discharged 18,868 MWh across the NEM during the day, finishing with a net position of -1,541 MWh.

Total FCAS costs were led by the raise regulation service at $38,159, with no price spikes recorded. Emissions totalled 256,214 tonnes of carbon dioxide, which was 11.7 per cent below the same weekday last week.

AEMO issued a notice for a foreseeable intervention in South Australia at 08:38, followed by an update at 08:59. AEMO notified the market of suspect LOR1 and LOR2 conditions in New South Wales at 13:37 and 15:48. A forecast LOR1 for the New South Wales region was also issued by AEMO at 15:32.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts show Queensland reaching $319.04/MWh at 19:30, while South Australia is forecast to reach $145.0/MWh at 18:30.

In context · The NEM average price of $51.8/MWh ranked sixth out of the last seven days and was below the seven-day average of $70.7/MWh. Victoria's average of -$7.8/MWh was its lowest over the seven-day period, which averaged $48.3/MWh.

NSW $133VIC $-8QLD $101SA $39TAS $-5
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $253 $505 $758 $1.0k -$50 -$12 $25 $63 $100 -$10 $200 $410 $620 $830 -$70 $150 $370 $590 $810 -$50 -$12 $25 $63 $100 05:00 11:00 17:00 23:00 05:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $133 $145 $1 $992 0 0
QLD $101 $111 -$8 $860 128 0
SA $39 $38 -$100 $3211 272 0
VIC -$8 -$6 -$57 $47 394 0
TAS -$5 -$5 -$60 $55 336 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,264MW
19:10
Trough
3,527MW
13:30
Energy
302.6GWh
QLD
Peak
7,540MW
19:05
Trough
3,787MW
13:50
Energy
276.2GWh
SA
Peak
1,627MW
11:40
Trough
1,200MW
00:20
Energy
65.5GWh
VIC
Peak
5,863MW
19:25
Trough
3,079MW
14:15
Energy
220.7GWh
TAS
Peak
1,078MW
07:35
Trough
737MW
13:55
Energy
43.6GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,7230$109 Oct, 23:05
LOWERREG$4510$59 Oct, 06:35
RAISE60SEC$2530$09 Oct, 09:30
RAISE6SEC$1700$09 Oct, 09:30
LOWER60SEC$1240$09 Oct, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$690$09 Oct, 09:20
LOWER5MIN$580$09 Oct, 17:05
LOWER6SEC$550$09 Oct, 14:15
Total$4,903

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,6180$109 Oct, 23:05
LOWERREG$2,5080$59 Oct, 06:35
RAISE60SEC$3430$09 Oct, 09:30
RAISE6SEC$2920$09 Oct, 09:30
LOWER60SEC$2250$09 Oct, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$750$09 Oct, 09:20
LOWER6SEC$650$09 Oct, 14:15
LOWER5MIN$430$09 Oct, 17:05
Total$11,170

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$13,3500$109 Oct, 23:05
LOWERREG$3,0140$59 Oct, 06:35
RAISE60SEC$5190$09 Oct, 09:30
RAISE6SEC$3990$09 Oct, 09:30
LOWER60SEC$2810$09 Oct, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$1880$09 Oct, 09:20
LOWER5MIN$1090$09 Oct, 17:05
LOWER6SEC$1090$09 Oct, 14:15
Total$17,969

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,4900$109 Oct, 23:05
LOWERREG$2,8330$59 Oct, 06:35
RAISE60SEC$3320$09 Oct, 09:30
LOWER60SEC$3260$09 Oct, 13:40
RAISE6SEC$2930$09 Oct, 09:30
LOWER6SEC$1010$09 Oct, 14:15
LOWER5MIN$860$09 Oct, 17:05
RAISE5MIN$560$09 Oct, 09:20
Total$8,518

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$13,6620$1299 Oct, 06:10
RAISEREG$8,9780$79 Oct, 08:25
RAISE6SEC$9230$09 Oct, 05:05
RAISE60SEC$9100$09 Oct, 05:05
LOWER5MIN$40$09 Oct, 16:10
RAISE5MIN$00$09 Oct, 09:20
LOWER6SEC$00$09 Oct, 14:15
LOWER60SEC$00$09 Oct, 13:40
Total$24,476

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,399 MW at 20:00 as NSW spot hit $159/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,601 MW at 19:30 as QLD spot hit $126/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,040 MW at 20:00 as VIC spot hit $0/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 616 MW at 22:00 as SA spot hit $60/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 4,092 MW at 19:30 as TAS spot hit $6/MWh.

Discharged
5,706MWh
peak 1,399 MW · 20:00
Charged
6,549MWh
peak 1,367 MW
Net
-843MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
87%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
6,052MWh
peak 1,601 MW · 19:30
Charged
6,696MWh
peak 1,731 MW
Net
-644MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
90%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,879MWh
peak 1,040 MW · 20:00
Charged
4,909MWh
peak 1,011 MW
Net
-30MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
99%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,231MWh
peak 616 MW · 22:00
Charged
2,255MWh
peak 482 MW
Net
-24MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
99%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
18,868MWh
peak 4,092 MW · 19:30
Charged
20,409MWh
peak 3,750 MW
Net
-1,541MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
92%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW6.0 GW-$500$0$500$1k00:3007:3714:4521:5205:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
6,052MWh
-644
#2NSW
5,706MWh
-843
#3VIC
4,879MWh
-30
#4SA
2,231MWh
-24

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 41.4%
  • Coal41.4% · 78.1 GWh
  • Gas1.1% · 2.2 GWh
  • Hydro7.7% · 14.5 GWh
  • Wind6.4% · 12.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)14.8% · 28.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)25.5% · 48.0 GWh
  • Battery3.0% · 5.7 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 53.9%
  • Coal53.9% · 113.4 GWh
  • Gas1.8% · 3.8 GWh
  • Hydro2.9% · 6.1 GWh
  • Wind8.0% · 16.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.2% · 25.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.1% · 38.0 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 6.1 GWh
  • Other0.3% · 0.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 40.9%
  • Coal40.9% · 71.1 GWh
  • Hydro0.2% · 0.3 GWh
  • Wind35.5% · 61.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.8% · 8.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.8% · 27.4 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 4.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 78.7%
  • Gas3.9% · 1.5 GWh
  • Wind78.7% · 30.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)0.9% · 0.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.8% · 4.2 GWh
  • Battery5.7% · 2.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 45.8%
  • Hydro45.8% · 8.0 GWh
  • Wind43.0% · 7.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.2% · 2.0 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.4 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:008.8 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:002.6 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:000.9 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
49.4%
VIC · Daily renewable share
67.4%
QLD · Daily renewable share
49.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
90.7%
TAS · Daily renewable share
64.7%
Peak instantaneous
78.8%
at 13:15
Daily NEM-wide share
54.2%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    49.4%
  • VIC
    67.4%
  • QLD
    49.5%
  • SA
    90.7%
  • TAS
    64.7%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +35.6 GWh 0 —
NSW1-QLD1 −49.7 GWh 0 —
VIC1-NSW1 +43.6 GWh 0 —
V-SA −4.0 GWh 2 —
T-V-MNSP1 −19.0 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
256.2k tCO₂
▼ 11.7% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 69.9k tCO₂ 0.363 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 101.8k tCO₂ 0.477 tCO₂/MWh
SA 687 tCO₂ 0.017 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 83.9k tCO₂ 0.478 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh