NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 5 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-05

Market Snapshot

Queensland price volatility contrasts with steady demand across the National Electricity Market

Regional price outcomes varied significantly as Queensland averaged $48.50/MWh despite frequent negative intervals, while South Australia saw the highest peak price of $260.00/MWh. New South Wales and Victoria maintained mid-range averages of $70.50/MWh and $58.50/MWh respectively, with no recorded cap or negative intervals in those regions.

Coal remained the primary generation source at 55.6%, supported by a combined solar contribution of 16% and wind at 15.8%. Renewables achieved an instantaneous peak of 65.7% at midday, while hydro generation provided a steady 8.2% of the total energy supply.

Battery storage systems discharged 8,387 MWh into the grid, resulting in a net consumption of 9,637 MWh for the trading day. Total system emissions rose by 5.6% compared to the same day last week, reaching 355,148 tonnes of CO2.

FCAS costs were led by Raise Regulation services in Tasmania at $34,970, while South Australia saw the highest individual service price of $49.00/MWh. Interconnector flows were most active between New South Wales and Queensland, with a net export of 44,498 MWh from the northern region.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions expected to remain below $150.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $66.50/MWh sits 3% below the 7-day average, continuing a volatile trend where prices have fluctuated between $37.00/MWh and $105.90/MWh. This session is notable for the divergence between Queensland's 100 negative intervals and the 5.6% rise in total emissions, indicating a highly stratified generation mix.

NSW $71VIC $59QLD $48SA $89TAS $57
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $30 $60 $90 $120 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 -$10 $20 $50 $80 $110 $0 $43 $85 $128 $170 $0 $28 $55 $83 $110 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $71 $72 $10 $111 0 0
QLD $48 $54 -$7 $95 100 0
SA $89 $89 $13 $260 0 0
VIC $59 $62 $0 $112 0 0
TAS $57 $58 $0 $103 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,917MW
18:05
Trough
6,899MW
04:00
Energy
401.8GWh
QLD
Peak
7,537MW
17:55
Trough
3,874MW
11:05
Energy
274.3GWh
SA
Peak
2,204MW
18:35
Trough
1,142MW
12:20
Energy
75.7GWh
VIC
Peak
7,581MW
18:05
Trough
4,593MW
13:15
Energy
280.1GWh
TAS
Peak
1,441MW
18:10
Trough
1,079MW
01:00
Energy
58.2GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,2810$125 July, 09:50
LOWERREG$5060$45 July, 07:30
RAISE6SEC$1370$05 July, 04:25
LOWER60SEC$1230$05 July, 11:30
RAISE60SEC$960$05 July, 18:50
LOWER5MIN$640$05 July, 15:45
RAISE5MIN$440$05 July, 06:15
LOWER6SEC$300$05 July, 10:20
Total$6,280

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,3450$125 July, 09:50
LOWERREG$2,1070$45 July, 07:30
LOWER60SEC$3100$05 July, 11:30
RAISE6SEC$2710$05 July, 04:25
RAISE60SEC$1410$05 July, 18:50
LOWER5MIN$650$05 July, 15:45
LOWER6SEC$560$05 July, 10:20
RAISE5MIN$400$05 July, 06:15
Total$10,335

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,4930$125 July, 09:50
LOWERREG$1,6650$45 July, 07:30
RAISE6SEC$2360$05 July, 04:25
LOWER60SEC$2240$05 July, 11:30
RAISE60SEC$2130$05 July, 18:50
RAISE5MIN$820$05 July, 06:15
LOWER5MIN$560$05 July, 15:45
LOWER6SEC$350$05 July, 10:20
Total$9,005

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISE60SEC$12,7000$495 July, 08:30
RAISEREG$6,3390$135 July, 09:50
RAISE6SEC$6,1500$55 July, 07:35
LOWERREG$3,2070$45 July, 07:30
RAISE5MIN$1,3880$45 July, 13:05
LOWER60SEC$3930$05 July, 11:30
LOWER5MIN$1530$05 July, 15:45
LOWER6SEC$910$05 July, 10:20
Total$30,423

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,5130$165 July, 16:25
LOWERREG$3,6190$36 July, 02:15
RAISE6SEC$1,6610$165 July, 16:45
RAISE60SEC$1,0880$35 July, 06:55
LOWER6SEC$6210$35 July, 23:55
LOWER60SEC$4560$05 July, 04:05
RAISE5MIN$630$25 July, 16:40
LOWER5MIN$10$05 July, 15:45
Total$17,023

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 256 MW at 17:30 as NSW spot hit $100/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,374 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $91/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 629 MW at 18:00 as VIC spot hit $101/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 140 MW at 08:30 as SA spot hit $94/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,267 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $98/MWh.

Discharged
1,196MWh
peak 256 MW · 17:30
Charged
6,013MWh
peak 1,122 MW
Net
-4,818MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
20%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,624MWh
peak 1,374 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,019MWh
peak 1,707 MW
Net
-1,395MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,905MWh
peak 629 MW · 18:00
Charged
4,119MWh
peak 945 MW
Net
-2,214MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
46%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
662MWh
peak 140 MW · 08:30
Charged
1,873MWh
peak 241 MW
Net
-1,211MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
35%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
8,387MWh
peak 2,267 MW · 18:30
Charged
18,024MWh
peak 3,170 MW
Net
-9,637MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
47%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$150$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
4,624MWh
-1,395
#2VIC
1,905MWh
-2,214
#3NSW
1,196MWh
-4,818
#4SA
662MWh
-1,211

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 63.0%
  • Coal63.0% · 130.0 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro2.7% · 5.6 GWh
  • Wind14.4% · 29.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.8% · 22.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)8.0% · 16.6 GWh
  • Battery0.6% · 1.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.9%
  • Coal60.9% · 118.6 GWh
  • Gas2.7% · 5.3 GWh
  • Hydro2.7% · 5.4 GWh
  • Wind10.7% · 20.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.2% · 18.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.3% · 22.1 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 4.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 63.4%
  • Coal63.4% · 109.4 GWh
  • Hydro8.2% · 14.1 GWh
  • Wind17.5% · 30.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.3% · 7.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)5.6% · 9.7 GWh
  • Battery1.1% · 1.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 47.9%
  • Gas35.6% · 14.3 GWh
  • Wind47.9% · 19.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.7% · 1.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.2% · 4.9 GWh
  • Battery1.6% · 0.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 92.6%
  • Hydro92.6% · 27.5 GWh
  • Wind5.1% · 1.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.3% · 0.7 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.2 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.0 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.4 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.1 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
32.4%
VIC · Daily renewable share
39.9%
QLD · Daily renewable share
41.8%
SA · Daily renewable share
57.5%
TAS · Daily renewable share
91.6%
Peak instantaneous
65.7%
at 12:00
Daily NEM-wide share
40.0%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    32.4%
  • VIC
    39.9%
  • QLD
    41.8%
  • SA
    57.5%
  • TAS
    91.6%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +40.8 GWh 0 —
NSW1-QLD1 −44.5 GWh 0 —
VIC1-NSW1 +25.0 GWh 8 —
V-SA −10.4 GWh 14 —
T-V-MNSP1 −6.7 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
355.1k tCO₂
▲ 5.6% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 113.5k tCO₂ 0.560 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 104.7k tCO₂ 0.539 tCO₂/MWh
SA 6.8k tCO₂ 0.173 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 130.2k tCO₂ 0.765 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh