NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Saturday 4 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-04

Market Snapshot

South Australian prices double the NEM average as Queensland sees negative intervals

Daily average prices ranged from 52.30 dollars in Queensland to 120.10 dollars in South Australia, reflecting a broad geographic spread. New South Wales and Victoria settled at 70.10 dollars and 68.10 dollars respectively, while Tasmania averaged 64.80 dollars per megawatt hour. Queensland experienced 122 negative price intervals, contrasting with South Australia where the minimum price remained at 55.00 dollars.

Coal dominated the generation mix at 55.3 percent, followed by wind at 13.2 percent and combined solar at 16.1 percent. Total renewable penetration reached an instantaneous peak of 62.1 percent at 12:15, while hydro and gas contributed 7.5 percent and 4.9 percent. Batteries provided 2.5 percent of total dispatch, with 15,705 megawatt hours discharged to the grid throughout the day.

Regional demand peaked highest in New South Wales at 9,900 megawatts at 18:10, followed by Victoria at 7,394 megawatts. Queensland and South Australia recorded peaks of 7,216 megawatts and 2,018 megawatts respectively during the evening period. Total system emissions reached 357,795 tonnes of carbon dioxide, representing a 1 percent decrease compared to the same day last week.

FCAS costs were led by Raise Regulation at 30,418 dollars, with peak prices for that service occurring in the Tasmanian region. Lower Regulation also saw significant activity totaling 17,928 dollars, while other services remained relatively stable. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into New South Wales and from Queensland into New South Wales via the direct link.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts indicate a peak price of 319.04 dollars in Queensland at 19:30 and 145.00 dollars in South Australia at 18:30.

Why it matters · The daily average of 74.00 dollars sits 3 percent above the weekly average, breaking a three-day run of sub-60 dollar prices. This price recovery occurred despite a high 62.1 percent instantaneous renewable peak, as 122 negative intervals in Queensland failed to offset sustained high pricing in South Australia.

NSW $70VIC $68QLD $52SA $120TAS $65
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $30 $60 $90 $120 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 -$10 $20 $50 $80 $110 $0 $45 $90 $135 $180 $0 $28 $55 $83 $110 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $70 $73 -$6 $111 6 0
QLD $52 $58 -$7 $102 122 0
SA $120 $119 $55 $297 0 0
VIC $68 $70 $0 $116 0 0
TAS $65 $66 $0 $105 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
9,900MW
18:10
Trough
5,742MW
13:00
Energy
377.4GWh
QLD
Peak
7,216MW
17:45
Trough
3,650MW
12:30
Energy
269.2GWh
SA
Peak
2,018MW
18:25
Trough
1,232MW
13:40
Energy
75.1GWh
VIC
Peak
7,394MW
17:55
Trough
4,796MW
03:35
Energy
283.9GWh
TAS
Peak
1,410MW
17:35
Trough
1,023MW
13:35
Energy
57.3GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,7940$154 July, 06:50
LOWERREG$9410$104 July, 15:00
RAISE6SEC$930$04 July, 06:50
RAISE60SEC$630$04 July, 19:05
LOWER60SEC$550$04 July, 13:50
LOWER5MIN$340$04 July, 14:10
RAISE5MIN$330$04 July, 19:05
LOWER6SEC$240$04 July, 14:10
Total$6,037

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,5790$154 July, 06:50
LOWERREG$4,2840$104 July, 15:00
RAISE6SEC$2570$04 July, 06:50
LOWER60SEC$1790$04 July, 13:50
RAISE60SEC$1350$04 July, 19:05
LOWER5MIN$860$04 July, 14:10
LOWER6SEC$480$04 July, 14:10
RAISE5MIN$420$04 July, 19:05
Total$10,610

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,1850$154 July, 06:50
LOWERREG$2,5820$104 July, 15:00
LOWER60SEC$2040$04 July, 13:50
RAISE60SEC$1650$04 July, 19:05
RAISE6SEC$1540$04 July, 06:50
LOWER5MIN$870$04 July, 14:10
RAISE5MIN$680$04 July, 19:05
LOWER6SEC$440$04 July, 14:10
Total$7,489

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISE60SEC$13,5680$124 July, 13:40
RAISEREG$5,3760$154 July, 06:50
RAISE6SEC$5,1760$54 July, 13:15
LOWERREG$3,4570$104 July, 15:00
RAISE5MIN$1,8150$74 July, 14:20
LOWER60SEC$3010$04 July, 13:50
LOWER5MIN$2140$04 July, 14:10
LOWER6SEC$1050$04 July, 14:10
Total$30,011

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,4840$214 July, 16:50
LOWERREG$6,6640$504 July, 14:05
RAISE6SEC$4,2040$1015 July, 02:20
LOWER6SEC$2,4010$514 July, 16:05
RAISE60SEC$1,0860$124 July, 16:00
LOWER60SEC$3250$04 July, 16:05
RAISE5MIN$930$04 July, 05:00
LOWER5MIN$500$14 July, 05:05
Total$25,307

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 919 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $94/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,397 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $81/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 872 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $93/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 197 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $112/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,311 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $86/MWh.

Discharged
5,237MWh
peak 919 MW · 18:00
Charged
4,347MWh
peak 1,069 MW
Net
+890MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
120%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,974MWh
peak 1,397 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,097MWh
peak 1,317 MW
Net
-123MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
98%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,343MWh
peak 872 MW · 18:30
Charged
2,835MWh
peak 566 MW
Net
+507MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
118%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,152MWh
peak 197 MW · 19:00
Charged
742MWh
peak 130 MW
Net
+410MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
155%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
15,705MWh
peak 3,311 MW · 18:30
Charged
14,022MWh
peak 2,519 MW
Net
+1,683MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
112%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$150$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,974MWh
-123
#2NSW
5,237MWh
+890
#3VIC
3,343MWh
+507
#4SA
1,152MWh
+410

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 63.3%
  • Coal63.3% · 130.3 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro2.7% · 5.6 GWh
  • Wind10.8% · 22.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.1% · 16.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.0% · 22.6 GWh
  • Battery2.5% · 5.2 GWh
  • Other0.9% · 1.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.4%
  • Coal58.4% · 112.0 GWh
  • Gas2.9% · 5.5 GWh
  • Hydro3.0% · 5.8 GWh
  • Wind8.4% · 16.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.2% · 19.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)13.4% · 25.7 GWh
  • Battery3.1% · 6.0 GWh
  • Other0.5% · 1.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 64.7%
  • Coal64.7% · 111.3 GWh
  • Hydro8.1% · 13.9 GWh
  • Wind17.7% · 30.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.6% · 4.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.6% · 7.9 GWh
  • Battery1.9% · 3.3 GWh
  • Other0.3% · 0.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 67.4%
  • Gas67.4% · 24.5 GWh
  • Wind13.7% · 5.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.5% · 1.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.2% · 4.1 GWh
  • Battery3.2% · 1.2 GWh
  • Other1.1% · 0.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 67.0%
  • Hydro67.0% · 22.5 GWh
  • Wind31.0% · 10.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.0% · 0.7 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.5 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.5 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.1 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.0 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.9 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
32.4%
VIC · Daily renewable share
37.6%
QLD · Daily renewable share
42.6%
SA · Daily renewable share
26.9%
TAS · Daily renewable share
100.7%
Peak instantaneous
62.1%
at 12:15
Daily NEM-wide share
38.5%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    32.4%
  • VIC
    37.6%
  • QLD
    42.6%
  • SA
    26.9%
  • TAS
    100.7%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +39.0 GWh 0
NSW1-QLD1 −42.4 GWh 0
VIC1-NSW1 +18.7 GWh 8
V-SA −12.0 GWh 12
T-V-MNSP1 +2.0 GWh 3

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
357.8k tCO₂
▼ 1.0% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 114.0k tCO₂ 0.561 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 99.6k tCO₂ 0.521 tCO₂/MWh
SA 11.8k tCO₂ 0.328 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 132.4k tCO₂ 0.777 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh