NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Friday 3 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-03

Market Snapshot

Renewable share peaks at seventy per cent as prices soften across NEM

Regional price outcomes showed a significant spread with South Australia averaging $85.50/MWh compared to Victoria at $34.90/MWh and Tasmania at $35.40/MWh. Negative pricing was prevalent in the southern regions where South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania combined for 290 intervals below zero dollars per megawatt hour.

Operational demand peaked across all regions between 17:40 and 18:40 AEST with New South Wales reaching 10,360 MW and Victoria 7,782 MW. Total energy consumption for the day was highest in New South Wales at 396.8 GWh followed by Victoria at 309.2 GWh.

Renewables contributed 48.0% of the total energy mix supported by a 27.4% wind share and 14.5% total solar contribution. Batteries provided 13,929 MWh of discharge energy while hydro generation remained modest at 5.1% of the total generation profile.

FCAS costs were led by Regulation services with South Australia seeing Raise Regulation peaks of $20.00/MWh and Tasmania recording Lower Regulation peaks of $50.00/MWh. Total emissions for the trading day were 315,769 tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Today · Forward projections indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30 AEST with other regions forecasting peaks between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average price of $45.70/MWh sits significantly below the 7-day average of $83.01/MWh, continuing a downward trend observed over the last three days. This price softening occurred alongside a sharp 17.1% reduction in emissions and a high 70.4% instantaneous renewable peak, indicating a shift in the generation mix relative to earlier in the week.

NSW $60VIC $35QLD $56SA $86TAS $35
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$10 $40 $90 $140 $190 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $60 $62 $0 $121 0 0
QLD $56 $59 -$3 $103 10 0
SA $86 $90 -$15 $227 108 0
VIC $35 $36 -$13 $87 100 0
TAS $35 $37 -$13 $90 82 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,360MW
18:00
Trough
6,755MW
13:15
Energy
396.8GWh
QLD
Peak
7,517MW
17:55
Trough
4,622MW
11:05
Energy
288.4GWh
SA
Peak
2,127MW
18:40
Trough
1,200MW
13:10
Energy
79.4GWh
VIC
Peak
7,782MW
18:30
Trough
4,805MW
03:50
Energy
309.2GWh
TAS
Peak
1,324MW
17:40
Trough
971MW
04:10
Energy
54.7GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,0590$203 July, 15:40
LOWERREG$1,0190$53 July, 09:55
RAISE6SEC$880$03 July, 07:30
RAISE60SEC$610$03 July, 07:40
LOWER60SEC$580$03 July, 15:00
LOWER5MIN$520$03 July, 15:35
RAISE5MIN$350$03 July, 08:25
LOWER6SEC$220$03 July, 09:40
Total$6,394

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWER6SEC$9,2090$153 July, 14:05
LOWER60SEC$7,6550$153 July, 14:55
RAISEREG$4,6900$203 July, 15:40
LOWERREG$2,9660$73 July, 14:55
LOWER5MIN$1,3390$73 July, 14:55
RAISE6SEC$1480$03 July, 06:10
RAISE60SEC$890$03 July, 06:10
RAISE5MIN$270$03 July, 08:25
Total$26,122

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,4660$203 July, 15:40
LOWERREG$2,0190$53 July, 09:55
RAISE6SEC$1690$03 July, 07:30
RAISE60SEC$1510$03 July, 07:40
LOWER60SEC$870$03 July, 15:00
RAISE5MIN$680$03 July, 08:25
LOWER5MIN$370$03 July, 15:35
LOWER6SEC$220$03 July, 09:40
Total$9,019

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISE60SEC$8,8530$53 July, 08:10
RAISE6SEC$4,7750$63 July, 08:10
RAISEREG$4,0560$203 July, 15:40
LOWERREG$3,0110$53 July, 09:55
RAISE5MIN$2,1770$23 July, 17:25
LOWER60SEC$1590$03 July, 15:00
LOWER5MIN$940$03 July, 15:35
LOWER6SEC$570$03 July, 09:40
Total$23,182

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,7080$63 July, 07:30
LOWER6SEC$9,8040$674 July, 01:15
LOWERREG$7,7590$503 July, 07:35
RAISE6SEC$7720$33 July, 07:30
RAISE60SEC$7420$03 July, 04:05
LOWER60SEC$3300$33 July, 16:35
RAISE5MIN$1030$34 July, 01:25
LOWER5MIN$280$03 July, 16:20
Total$30,246

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 900 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $78/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,088 MW at 17:30 as QLD spot hit $85/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 476 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $74/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 342 MW at 09:30 as SA spot hit $39/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,397 MW at 18:00 as TAS spot hit $68/MWh.

Discharged
4,040MWh
peak 900 MW · 18:00
Charged
5,386MWh
peak 1,444 MW
Net
-1,346MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
75%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,638MWh
peak 1,088 MW · 17:30
Charged
6,220MWh
peak 1,234 MW
Net
-582MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
91%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,975MWh
peak 476 MW · 18:30
Charged
2,885MWh
peak 465 MW
Net
+90MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
103%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,277MWh
peak 342 MW · 09:30
Charged
1,822MWh
peak 334 MW
Net
-546MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
70%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
13,929MWh
peak 2,397 MW · 18:00
Charged
16,313MWh
peak 3,248 MW
Net
-2,383MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
85%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$150$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,638MWh
-582
#2NSW
4,040MWh
-1,346
#3VIC
2,975MWh
+90
#4SA
1,277MWh
-546

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 55.7%
  • Coal55.7% · 121.9 GWh
  • Gas1.2% · 2.7 GWh
  • Hydro2.9% · 6.3 GWh
  • Wind22.0% · 48.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.4% · 16.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.0% · 19.7 GWh
  • Battery1.8% · 4.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.4%
  • Coal58.4% · 110.8 GWh
  • Gas3.1% · 5.9 GWh
  • Hydro3.1% · 5.8 GWh
  • Wind10.1% · 19.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.9% · 18.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.3% · 23.3 GWh
  • Battery3.0% · 5.6 GWh
  • Other0.3% · 0.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 46.7%
  • Coal46.7% · 87.0 GWh
  • Hydro2.5% · 4.7 GWh
  • Wind43.0% · 80.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.3% · 4.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)3.8% · 7.0 GWh
  • Battery1.6% · 3.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 56.2%
  • Gas25.8% · 11.6 GWh
  • Wind56.2% · 25.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.3% · 1.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.9% · 4.9 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 1.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 61.2%
  • Hydro61.2% · 16.9 GWh
  • Wind36.1% · 10.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.8% · 0.8 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.0 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.8 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.1 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.5 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
41.2%
VIC · Daily renewable share
56.9%
QLD · Daily renewable share
40.9%
SA · Daily renewable share
69.3%
TAS · Daily renewable share
86.7%
Peak instantaneous
70.4%
at 13:00
Daily NEM-wide share
48.0%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    41.2%
  • VIC
    56.9%
  • QLD
    40.9%
  • SA
    69.3%
  • TAS
    86.7%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +14.5 GWh 8 —
NSW1-QLD1 −26.0 GWh 6 —
VIC1-NSW1 +29.7 GWh 14 —
V-SA −10.5 GWh 9 —
T-V-MNSP1 −5.1 GWh 2 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
315.8k tCO₂
▼ 17.1% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 107.6k tCO₂ 0.494 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 98.8k tCO₂ 0.521 tCO₂/MWh
SA 5.7k tCO₂ 0.128 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 103.7k tCO₂ 0.560 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh