NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Thursday 2 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-02

Market Snapshot

South Australian prices collapse to negative average amid high wind generation

Regional price divergence was stark as South Australia averaged -$6.40/MWh and Victoria $8.10/MWh, contrasting with New South Wales at $72.20/MWh. Negative pricing was prevalent in the southern regions, with South Australia spending over 500 intervals below zero and Victoria recording 320 such intervals.

Demand peaked across most regions between 17:50 and 18:00 AEST, led by New South Wales at 9,777 MW. Total energy consumption was highest in New South Wales at 380.8 GWh, followed by Victoria at 314.4 GWh and Queensland at 301.9 GWh.

Renewables contributed 49.6% of the total generation mix, peaking instantaneously at 65.7% during the morning. Wind was the primary renewable source at 31.2%, while coal provided 47.8% of the total NEM supply. Battery storage discharged 12,526 MWh to the grid during the day.

FCAS costs were led by the Raise Regulation service at $39,607, with New South Wales recording the peak price for that category. Interconnector flows showed net exports from Victoria to New South Wales totaling 16,815 MWh, while Tasmania exported 6,158 MWh to the mainland.

Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with South Australian prices expected to reach $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $37.00/MWh sits 61% below the weekly average, marking a sharp decline at the end of the seven-day trend. This price collapse is unusual given the 17.9% drop in emissions and 31.2% wind share, which together suppressed prices despite typical winter evening demand peaks.

NSW $72VIC $8QLD $75SA $-6TAS $29
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $33 $65 $98 $130 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 -$50 -$12 $25 $63 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $72 $74 $43 $135 0 0
QLD $75 $76 $45 $129 0 0
SA -$6 -$5 -$157 $105 514 0
VIC $8 $10 -$25 $180 320 0
TAS $29 $29 -$15 $88 138 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
9,777MW
17:55
Trough
6,332MW
12:50
Energy
380.8GWh
QLD
Peak
7,724MW
17:50
Trough
5,264MW
10:35
Energy
301.9GWh
SA
Peak
2,402MW
19:45
Trough
1,460MW
04:05
Energy
88.5GWh
VIC
Peak
8,246MW
18:00
Trough
4,504MW
04:50
Energy
314.4GWh
TAS
Peak
1,373MW
17:50
Trough
894MW
04:40
Energy
53.4GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,0820$122 July, 15:50
LOWERREG$1,2670$72 July, 16:25
LOWER60SEC$2270$02 July, 15:45
RAISE6SEC$1620$02 July, 17:55
RAISE60SEC$1530$02 July, 18:30
RAISE5MIN$690$02 July, 17:55
LOWER6SEC$600$02 July, 15:40
LOWER5MIN$580$02 July, 15:05
Total$8,078

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,2200$122 July, 15:50
LOWERREG$3,2750$72 July, 16:25
LOWER60SEC$1,2260$22 July, 07:40
LOWER6SEC$9080$22 July, 08:05
RAISE6SEC$3900$02 July, 22:10
RAISE60SEC$3430$02 July, 22:10
LOWER5MIN$1150$02 July, 15:05
RAISE5MIN$710$02 July, 21:55
Total$14,549

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,2240$122 July, 15:50
LOWERREG$1,9660$72 July, 16:25
RAISE6SEC$2400$02 July, 17:55
RAISE60SEC$2360$02 July, 18:30
LOWER60SEC$2310$02 July, 15:45
RAISE5MIN$830$02 July, 17:55
LOWER5MIN$350$02 July, 15:05
LOWER6SEC$280$02 July, 15:40
Total$13,044

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,0110$122 July, 15:50
LOWERREG$4,5370$72 July, 16:25
LOWER60SEC$3440$02 July, 15:45
RAISE6SEC$2680$02 July, 17:55
RAISE60SEC$2320$02 July, 18:30
RAISE5MIN$890$02 July, 17:55
LOWER6SEC$840$02 July, 15:40
LOWER5MIN$690$02 July, 15:05
Total$12,634

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISE6SEC$16,9520$1212 July, 04:15
LOWERREG$8,5790$672 July, 10:30
RAISEREG$8,0710$72 July, 04:15
RAISE60SEC$4,9860$32 July, 07:35
LOWER6SEC$1,9470$372 July, 16:05
LOWER60SEC$8280$02 July, 04:05
RAISE5MIN$4360$12 July, 16:10
LOWER5MIN$00$02 July, 18:30
Total$41,798

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 845 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $101/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,051 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $101/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 608 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $46/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 464 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $73/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,456 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $45/MWh.

Discharged
4,252MWh
peak 845 MW · 18:00
Charged
5,200MWh
peak 738 MW
Net
-948MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
82%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,748MWh
peak 1,051 MW · 18:00
Charged
5,717MWh
peak 854 MW
Net
-969MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
83%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,446MWh
peak 608 MW · 18:30
Charged
4,461MWh
peak 576 MW
Net
-2,014MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
55%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,080MWh
peak 464 MW · 19:00
Charged
1,928MWh
peak 278 MW
Net
-848MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
56%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
12,526MWh
peak 2,456 MW · 18:30
Charged
17,305MWh
peak 1,785 MW
Net
-4,780MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
72%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
4,748MWh
-969
#2NSW
4,252MWh
-948
#3VIC
2,446MWh
-2,014
#4SA
1,080MWh
-848

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 54.4%
  • Coal54.4% · 117.4 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro4.3% · 9.3 GWh
  • Wind21.5% · 46.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.0% · 17.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.3% · 20.1 GWh
  • Battery2.0% · 4.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 63.4%
  • Coal63.4% · 119.3 GWh
  • Gas4.3% · 8.1 GWh
  • Hydro2.8% · 5.3 GWh
  • Wind10.9% · 20.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)6.7% · 12.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.2% · 17.3 GWh
  • Battery2.5% · 4.7 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 50.1%
  • Coal44.0% · 80.5 GWh
  • Hydro0.7% · 1.3 GWh
  • Wind50.1% · 91.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.7% · 3.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.1% · 3.9 GWh
  • Battery1.3% · 2.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 83.9%
  • Gas4.3% · 2.0 GWh
  • Wind83.9% · 39.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.5% · 0.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)7.9% · 3.7 GWh
  • Battery2.3% · 1.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 68.2%
  • Hydro68.2% · 20.0 GWh
  • Wind30.8% · 9.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)0.9% · 0.3 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.7 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.1 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.5 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.8 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.5 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
43.1%
VIC · Daily renewable share
58.5%
QLD · Daily renewable share
34.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
88.7%
TAS · Daily renewable share
95.4%
Peak instantaneous
65.7%
at 10:55
Daily NEM-wide share
49.6%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    43.1%
  • VIC
    58.5%
  • QLD
    34.5%
  • SA
    88.7%
  • TAS
    95.4%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +10.9 GWh 8 —
NSW1-QLD1 −13.9 GWh 18 —
VIC1-NSW1 +16.8 GWh 12 —
V-SA −5.5 GWh 32 —
T-V-MNSP1 −6.2 GWh 6 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
307.6k tCO₂
▼ 17.9% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 103.0k tCO₂ 0.480 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 107.4k tCO₂ 0.570 tCO₂/MWh
SA 978 tCO₂ 0.021 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 96.2k tCO₂ 0.529 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh