NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Wednesday 1 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-01

Market Snapshot

Southern regions record frequent negative prices amid high renewable generation share

Regional price dispersion was high, ranging from $89.20/MWh in New South Wales to $13.30/MWh in Victoria. South Australia and Victoria experienced 184 and 182 negative intervals respectively, while northern regions remained positive throughout the day. New South Wales reached the highest daily price of $129.40/MWh during the evening peak.

Aggregate demand peaked between 17:40 and 18:30 across all regions, with New South Wales reaching a maximum of 10,190 MW. Total energy consumption for the day was highest in New South Wales at 400.2 GWh, followed by Queensland at 293.2 GWh.

Renewables contributed 47.7% of the total generation mix, peaking instantaneously at 63.6% at 11:40. Wind generation provided 29.0% of the total energy, while coal remained the largest single source at 49.3%. Solar utility and rooftop solar combined for 11.5% of the daily fuel mix.

Batteries discharged 10,674 MWh but remained net consumers with a net flow of -4,429 MWh. FCAS costs were led by the Raise Regulation service at $46,349, with peak pricing occurring in New South Wales. Total daily emissions were recorded at 312,334 tonnes of CO2.

Today · Predispatch forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30 and $145.00/MWh in South Australia at 18:30.

Why it matters · The daily average price of $54.10/MWh sits 51.3% below the weekly average, marking a sharp break from the recent seven-day trend. This price collapse in southern regions occurred as wind generation reached 29.0%, driving over 360 combined negative intervals despite high evening demand.

NSW $89VIC $13QLD $79SA $28TAS $54
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $33 $65 $98 $130 -$10 $25 $60 $95 $130 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $89 $91 $50 $129 0 0
QLD $79 $81 $45 $111 0 0
SA $28 $30 -$14 $80 184 0
VIC $13 $15 -$11 $153 182 0
TAS $54 $57 $1 $91 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,190MW
17:55
Trough
6,786MW
03:00
Energy
400.2GWh
QLD
Peak
7,787MW
18:00
Trough
4,552MW
10:40
Energy
293.2GWh
SA
Peak
2,420MW
18:30
Trough
1,462MW
04:55
Energy
91.0GWh
VIC
Peak
7,514MW
18:00
Trough
4,536MW
03:25
Energy
287.0GWh
TAS
Peak
1,300MW
17:40
Trough
894MW
02:00
Energy
53.4GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,9420$111 July, 12:45
LOWERREG$1,8290$51 July, 07:05
RAISE6SEC$2340$01 July, 07:10
RAISE60SEC$1920$01 July, 08:50
LOWER60SEC$1700$02 July, 03:55
RAISE5MIN$790$01 July, 08:50
LOWER5MIN$470$01 July, 12:35
LOWER6SEC$470$02 July, 03:50
Total$10,539

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,9590$111 July, 12:45
LOWERREG$4,5980$51 July, 07:05
RAISE6SEC$4840$01 July, 07:10
LOWER60SEC$3850$02 July, 03:55
RAISE60SEC$3720$01 July, 08:50
RAISE5MIN$840$01 July, 08:50
LOWER6SEC$690$02 July, 03:50
LOWER5MIN$490$01 July, 12:35
Total$13,001

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$12,7900$111 July, 12:45
LOWERREG$3,3510$51 July, 07:05
RAISE6SEC$3440$01 July, 07:10
RAISE60SEC$3170$01 July, 08:50
LOWER60SEC$1390$02 July, 03:55
RAISE5MIN$1110$01 July, 08:50
LOWER6SEC$240$02 July, 03:50
LOWER5MIN$200$01 July, 12:35
Total$17,095

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,0590$111 July, 12:45
LOWERREG$5,4640$51 July, 07:05
RAISE6SEC$3490$01 July, 07:10
LOWER60SEC$3090$02 July, 03:55
RAISE60SEC$2670$01 July, 08:50
RAISE5MIN$840$01 July, 08:50
LOWER6SEC$740$02 July, 03:50
LOWER5MIN$610$01 July, 12:35
Total$16,667

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,5980$71 July, 11:05
RAISE60SEC$4,6380$31 July, 07:05
LOWER6SEC$3,7250$391 July, 18:05
LOWERREG$2,6300$181 July, 18:05
RAISE6SEC$2,2660$31 July, 10:45
LOWER60SEC$1,8520$31 July, 15:30
RAISE5MIN$3490$01 July, 04:05
LOWER5MIN$130$01 July, 15:35
Total$24,072

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 674 MW at 08:00 as NSW spot hit $116/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,347 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $103/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 805 MW at 18:00 as VIC spot hit $57/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 337 MW at 08:00 as SA spot hit $66/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,801 MW at 18:00 as TAS spot hit $64/MWh.

Discharged
3,285MWh
peak 674 MW · 08:00
Charged
4,879MWh
peak 609 MW
Net
-1,594MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
67%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,723MWh
peak 1,347 MW · 18:00
Charged
4,790MWh
peak 1,025 MW
Net
-1,067MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
78%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,528MWh
peak 805 MW · 18:00
Charged
3,643MWh
peak 575 MW
Net
-1,115MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
69%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,138MWh
peak 337 MW · 08:00
Charged
1,791MWh
peak 255 MW
Net
-653MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
64%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
10,674MWh
peak 2,801 MW · 18:00
Charged
15,103MWh
peak 1,585 MW
Net
-4,429MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
71%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
3,723MWh
-1,067
#2NSW
3,285MWh
-1,594
#3VIC
2,528MWh
-1,115
#4SA
1,138MWh
-653

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 64.5%
  • Coal64.5% · 129.0 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro6.1% · 12.1 GWh
  • Wind14.4% · 28.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.2% · 10.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)7.7% · 15.4 GWh
  • Battery1.6% · 3.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.0%
  • Coal58.0% · 114.8 GWh
  • Gas5.7% · 11.3 GWh
  • Hydro2.2% · 4.3 GWh
  • Wind12.7% · 25.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.0% · 15.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.4% · 22.5 GWh
  • Battery1.9% · 3.7 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 47.2%
  • Coal45.8% · 78.8 GWh
  • Hydro0.8% · 1.4 GWh
  • Wind47.2% · 81.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)0.6% · 1.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.2% · 7.2 GWh
  • Battery1.5% · 2.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 90.6%
  • Gas2.6% · 1.4 GWh
  • Wind90.6% · 48.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.1% · 0.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)3.6% · 1.9 GWh
  • Battery2.1% · 1.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 80.5%
  • Hydro80.5% · 24.5 GWh
  • Wind18.3% · 5.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.2% · 0.4 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.8 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.0 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.6 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.4 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
29.9%
VIC · Daily renewable share
57.5%
QLD · Daily renewable share
40.4%
SA · Daily renewable share
104.3%
TAS · Daily renewable share
100.1%
Peak instantaneous
63.6%
at 11:40
Daily NEM-wide share
47.7%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    29.9%
  • VIC
    57.5%
  • QLD
    40.4%
  • SA
    104.3%
  • TAS
    100.1%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +29.9 GWh 1 —
NSW1-QLD1 −47.9 GWh 0 —
VIC1-NSW1 +17.5 GWh 2 —
V-SA +3.6 GWh 21 —
T-V-MNSP1 +0 MWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
312.3k tCO₂
▼ 19.3% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 113.6k tCO₂ 0.572 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 104.7k tCO₂ 0.533 tCO₂/MWh
SA 613 tCO₂ 0.011 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 93.4k tCO₂ 0.547 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh