NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Wednesday 16 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-16

Market Snapshot

South Australia prices drop to twenty-two dollars amid high negative intervals

Regional price spreads were pronounced across the NEM, ranging from a low of $22.60/MWh in South Australia to $64.30/MWh in Victoria. South Australia experienced 210 negative intervals with a minimum price of -$282.80/MWh, whereas New South Wales and Queensland each saw over 170 negative periods.

Demand peaked across most regions between 18:40 and 19:50, with New South Wales reaching a maximum of 9,475 MW. Total energy consumption for the day was highest in New South Wales at 334.5 GWh, followed by Victoria at 280.6 GWh.

Renewables provided 49.7% of total generation, supported by a combined solar contribution of 26.7% and wind at 17.0%. Coal remained the primary fuel source at 45.4%, while gas and hydro contributed 2.2% and 6.0% respectively.

Battery storage systems discharged 18,620 MWh into the grid, though the fleet remained a net consumer with -2,213 MWh total net flow. FCAS costs were highest for the Raise Regulation service in Tasmania, which peaked at $38.00/MWh.

Today · Queensland is forecast to reach a peak price of $319.04/MWh at 19:30, while New South Wales expects a high of $98.25/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $48.10/MWh sits 14.4% above the 7-day average, extending a volatile trend where prices have fluctuated between $20 and $58. This price level is notable given that renewables nearly reached a 50% daily share while South Australia faced negative pricing for over 70% of the day.

NSW $59VIC $64QLD $55SA $23TAS $62
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $25 $60 $95 $130 -$10 $25 $60 $95 $130 -$10 $23 $55 $88 $120 -$190 -$112 -$35 $43 $120 -$10 $20 $50 $80 $110 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $59 $69 -$7 $130 174 0
QLD $55 $62 -$6 $120 172 0
SA $23 $55 -$283 $112 210 0
VIC $64 $67 -$6 $119 10 0
TAS $62 $63 -$6 $109 10 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
9,475MW
18:50
Trough
4,156MW
13:05
Energy
334.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,541MW
18:40
Trough
3,946MW
13:10
Energy
270.7GWh
SA
Peak
1,888MW
20:25
Trough
194MW
13:40
Energy
58.6GWh
VIC
Peak
7,738MW
18:45
Trough
4,742MW
04:05
Energy
280.6GWh
TAS
Peak
1,294MW
19:50
Trough
736MW
14:15
Energy
49.9GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,0330$1216 Sept, 16:35
LOWERREG$9560$1016 Sept, 15:55
LOWER5MIN$2070$216 Sept, 16:05
LOWER60SEC$1980$116 Sept, 16:10
RAISE6SEC$760$016 Sept, 06:45
RAISE60SEC$640$016 Sept, 05:30
LOWER6SEC$610$016 Sept, 14:55
RAISE5MIN$280$016 Sept, 08:45
Total$4,622

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,0360$1216 Sept, 16:35
LOWERREG$5,9410$1016 Sept, 15:55
LOWER60SEC$4020$116 Sept, 16:10
RAISE6SEC$2620$016 Sept, 06:45
LOWER5MIN$2070$216 Sept, 16:05
RAISE60SEC$1970$016 Sept, 05:30
LOWER6SEC$1070$016 Sept, 14:55
RAISE5MIN$380$016 Sept, 08:45
Total$16,191

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,6490$1216 Sept, 16:35
LOWERREG$3,4800$1016 Sept, 15:55
LOWER60SEC$5670$116 Sept, 16:10
LOWER5MIN$4420$216 Sept, 16:05
LOWER6SEC$1640$016 Sept, 14:55
RAISE6SEC$1570$016 Sept, 06:45
RAISE60SEC$1520$016 Sept, 05:30
RAISE5MIN$740$016 Sept, 08:45
Total$15,687

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,2090$1216 Sept, 16:35
LOWERREG$3,1160$1016 Sept, 15:55
LOWER6SEC$2,5460$916 Sept, 04:10
LOWER60SEC$2,3510$516 Sept, 04:05
LOWER5MIN$1,2410$416 Sept, 04:05
RAISE6SEC$1560$016 Sept, 06:45
RAISE60SEC$1280$016 Sept, 05:30
RAISE5MIN$440$016 Sept, 08:45
Total$12,791

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$13,3610$3816 Sept, 18:55
LOWERREG$8,1600$5016 Sept, 06:10
RAISE6SEC$5,3220$15916 Sept, 05:15
LOWER6SEC$8270$2216 Sept, 15:20
RAISE60SEC$6650$016 Sept, 04:05
LOWER60SEC$3790$116 Sept, 16:10
LOWER5MIN$930$216 Sept, 16:05
RAISE5MIN$260$017 Sept, 01:05
Total$28,833

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,674 MW at 19:30 as NSW spot hit $112/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,601 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $110/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 803 MW at 19:00 as VIC spot hit $107/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 290 MW at 20:00 as SA spot hit $96/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 4,258 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $96/MWh.

Discharged
8,134MWh
peak 1,674 MW · 19:30
Charged
8,364MWh
peak 1,245 MW
Net
-230MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
97%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,480MWh
peak 1,601 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,139MWh
peak 947 MW
Net
-659MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
89%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,681MWh
peak 803 MW · 19:00
Charged
4,604MWh
peak 969 MW
Net
-923MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
80%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,325MWh
peak 290 MW · 20:00
Charged
1,728MWh
peak 274 MW
Net
-403MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
18,620MWh
peak 4,258 MW · 19:00
Charged
20,834MWh
peak 2,725 MW
Net
-2,213MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
89%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW6.0 GW-$200-$100$0$100$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
8,134MWh
-230
#2QLD
5,480MWh
-659
#3VIC
3,681MWh
-923
#4SA
1,325MWh
-403

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 48.9%
  • Coal48.9% · 105.6 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro3.7% · 8.1 GWh
  • Wind8.6% · 18.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)15.4% · 33.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.8% · 40.6 GWh
  • Battery3.8% · 8.1 GWh
  • Other0.3% · 0.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 54.6%
  • Coal54.6% · 105.0 GWh
  • Gas2.4% · 4.6 GWh
  • Hydro2.2% · 4.2 GWh
  • Wind7.3% · 14.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.9% · 24.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.5% · 33.7 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 5.5 GWh
  • Other0.2% · 0.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 49.9%
  • Coal49.9% · 85.0 GWh
  • Gas2.3% · 3.9 GWh
  • Hydro3.7% · 6.3 GWh
  • Wind25.9% · 44.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.8% · 9.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.2% · 17.4 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 3.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 59.7%
  • Gas9.3% · 4.3 GWh
  • Wind59.7% · 27.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.8% · 1.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)25.4% · 11.7 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 1.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 71.7%
  • Gas1.1% · 0.3 GWh
  • Hydro71.7% · 20.2 GWh
  • Wind21.8% · 6.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)5.4% · 1.5 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.6 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.7 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.4 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
46.9%
VIC · Daily renewable share
47.8%
QLD · Daily renewable share
46.3%
SA · Daily renewable share
95.7%
TAS · Daily renewable share
95.1%
Peak instantaneous
77.3%
at 11:40
Daily NEM-wide share
49.7%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    46.9%
  • VIC
    47.8%
  • QLD
    46.3%
  • SA
    95.7%
  • TAS
    95.1%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +22.9 GWh 12 —
NSW1-QLD1 −21.1 GWh 10 —
VIC1-NSW1 −2.9 GWh 29 —
V-SA +4.7 GWh 8 —
T-V-MNSP1 −109 MWh 1 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
291.8k tCO₂
▼ 1.8% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 92.3k tCO₂ 0.418 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 94.5k tCO₂ 0.484 tCO₂/MWh
SA 2.1k tCO₂ 0.045 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 102.6k tCO₂ 0.601 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 206 tCO₂ 0.007 tCO₂/MWh