NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Tuesday 15 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-15

Market Snapshot

Renewable share exceeds fifty per cent as regional prices remain subdued

Average prices across the NEM ranged from $24.3/MWh in South Australia to $44.9/MWh in Queensland. Negative pricing was prevalent across all regions, with South Australia experiencing 212 negative intervals and Victoria 200 intervals. NSW recorded the highest regional peak demand of 8,867 MW at 18:20.

Renewable generation reached an instantaneous peak of 78.4% at 12:20, with wind contributing 21.6% and rooftop solar 17.1% to the daily mix. Coal remained the primary fuel source at 44.1%, while gas generation was minimal at 1.8%. Hydro and utility-scale solar provided 4.1% and 8.7% respectively.

Batteries discharged 16,597 MWh into the grid, representing 2.6% of the total generation mix. The net battery position for the day was -3,752 MWh. FCAS costs were highest in Tasmania, where the Raise Regulation service peaked at $994/MWh and the Lower Regulation service at $104/MWh.

Interconnector flows saw 24,034 MWh moving from Victoria to New South Wales. Conversely, 24,139 MWh flowed from New South Wales into Queensland. Total system emissions for the period were 272,634 tonnes of CO2.

Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions expected to remain below $150/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average price sits 37% below the seven-day average, continuing a volatile trend where prices have fluctuated between $20 and $71. This low-price environment coincided with a renewable share exceeding 50% and a significant 14.2% reduction in emissions compared to last week.

NSW $44VIC $24QLD $45SA $24TAS $27
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $44 $50 -$10 $90 162 0
QLD $45 $52 -$10 $89 174 0
SA $24 $33 -$16 $76 212 0
VIC $24 $28 -$20 $74 200 0
TAS $27 $29 -$20 $88 186 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,867MW
18:20
Trough
4,235MW
12:45
Energy
322.2GWh
QLD
Peak
7,542MW
18:40
Trough
3,310MW
12:05
Energy
263.7GWh
SA
Peak
1,875MW
19:10
Trough
396MW
12:20
Energy
58.4GWh
VIC
Peak
7,196MW
18:45
Trough
3,589MW
11:10
Energy
247.9GWh
TAS
Peak
1,215MW
18:40
Trough
726MW
14:10
Energy
46.3GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$1,7860$815 Sept, 07:25
LOWERREG$6800$815 Sept, 14:10
LOWER60SEC$750$015 Sept, 13:15
RAISE6SEC$740$015 Sept, 18:35
RAISE60SEC$590$015 Sept, 07:00
LOWER5MIN$520$015 Sept, 14:35
RAISE5MIN$260$015 Sept, 18:40
LOWER6SEC$240$015 Sept, 13:55
Total$2,775

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,8890$815 Sept, 07:25
LOWERREG$4,9780$815 Sept, 14:10
LOWER60SEC$3980$015 Sept, 13:15
RAISE6SEC$2960$015 Sept, 18:35
RAISE60SEC$2310$015 Sept, 07:00
LOWER5MIN$1760$015 Sept, 14:35
LOWER6SEC$1390$015 Sept, 13:55
RAISE5MIN$450$015 Sept, 18:40
Total$13,152

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,2810$815 Sept, 07:25
LOWERREG$2,1250$815 Sept, 14:10
LOWER60SEC$3330$015 Sept, 13:15
LOWER5MIN$1700$015 Sept, 14:35
RAISE6SEC$1610$015 Sept, 18:35
RAISE60SEC$1580$015 Sept, 07:00
RAISE5MIN$810$015 Sept, 18:40
LOWER6SEC$800$015 Sept, 13:55
Total$10,389

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWER6SEC$12,1970$1616 Sept, 04:00
LOWER60SEC$8,0400$2016 Sept, 04:00
LOWERREG$4,1720$815 Sept, 14:10
RAISEREG$3,5230$815 Sept, 07:25
LOWER5MIN$1,3410$516 Sept, 04:00
RAISE6SEC$9340$515 Sept, 04:40
RAISE60SEC$8480$515 Sept, 04:15
RAISE5MIN$1230$015 Sept, 04:05
Total$31,178

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISE6SEC$26,0840$13615 Sept, 18:30
LOWERREG$26,0070$10415 Sept, 14:15
RAISEREG$17,2330$99415 Sept, 16:30
LOWER6SEC$2,2370$2915 Sept, 22:40
LOWER60SEC$1,3960$6016 Sept, 00:35
RAISE60SEC$1,1170$315 Sept, 18:10
RAISE5MIN$750$015 Sept, 04:15
LOWER5MIN$90$215 Sept, 18:40
Total$74,158

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,301 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $73/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,295 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $77/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 852 MW at 19:30 as VIC spot hit $47/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 319 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $59/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,439 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $50/MWh.

Discharged
6,869MWh
peak 1,301 MW · 18:30
Charged
8,079MWh
peak 1,545 MW
Net
-1,210MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
85%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,979MWh
peak 1,295 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,036MWh
peak 1,176 MW
Net
-1,057MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
82%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,141MWh
peak 852 MW · 19:30
Charged
4,361MWh
peak 897 MW
Net
-1,221MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
72%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,609MWh
peak 319 MW · 19:00
Charged
1,873MWh
peak 382 MW
Net
-263MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
86%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
16,597MWh
peak 3,439 MW · 19:00
Charged
20,349MWh
peak 3,285 MW
Net
-3,752MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
82%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$10023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,869MWh
-1,210
#2QLD
4,979MWh
-1,057
#3VIC
3,141MWh
-1,221
#4SA
1,609MWh
-263

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 49.4%
  • Coal49.4% · 102.2 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro4.4% · 9.2 GWh
  • Wind12.1% · 24.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.7% · 24.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.5% · 38.3 GWh
  • Battery3.3% · 6.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 53.3%
  • Coal53.3% · 100.0 GWh
  • Gas2.2% · 4.2 GWh
  • Hydro2.1% · 4.0 GWh
  • Wind7.2% · 13.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.5% · 23.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)19.8% · 37.0 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.0 GWh
  • Other0.2% · 0.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 45.0%
  • Coal45.0% · 76.4 GWh
  • Hydro0.3% · 0.4 GWh
  • Wind36.7% · 62.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.8% · 6.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.4% · 21.0 GWh
  • Battery1.9% · 3.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 59.5%
  • Gas8.8% · 3.7 GWh
  • Wind59.5% · 25.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)25.4% · 10.7 GWh
  • Battery3.8% · 1.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 46.0%
  • Gas9.0% · 2.4 GWh
  • Hydro46.0% · 12.2 GWh
  • Wind40.0% · 10.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)5.1% · 1.4 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.3 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.7 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.7 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.2 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.5 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
45.4%
VIC · Daily renewable share
59.6%
QLD · Daily renewable share
46.7%
SA · Daily renewable share
90.8%
TAS · Daily renewable share
85.8%
Peak instantaneous
78.4%
at 12:20
Daily NEM-wide share
51.2%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    45.4%
  • VIC
    59.6%
  • QLD
    46.7%
  • SA
    90.8%
  • TAS
    85.8%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +6.4 GWh 40 —
NSW1-QLD1 −24.1 GWh 20 —
VIC1-NSW1 +24.0 GWh 16 —
V-SA +1.3 GWh 28 —
T-V-MNSP1 −4.7 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
272.6k tCO₂
▼ 14.2% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 89.0k tCO₂ 0.421 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 90.0k tCO₂ 0.473 tCO₂/MWh
SA 1.7k tCO₂ 0.039 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 90.5k tCO₂ 0.532 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.4k tCO₂ 0.055 tCO₂/MWh