RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 18 August 2026

The MTPASA results published on 18 August 2026 identifies no Low Reserve Conditions.
 
Low Reserve Conditions previously identified in:
-- July 2028 in South Australia
are no longer forecast, as unserved energy is no longer expected to exceed the reliability standard in the region over the August 2027 to August 2028 assessment period.
 
This MT PASA incorporates updated transmission capability associated with Project EnergyConnect Stage 2. The NSW-SA interconnector transfer capability is forecast to increase in stages from 1 October 2026 starting at 150 MW. From 31 January 2027 the transfer capacity increases to 350 MW, then 550 MW from 1 July 2027 and 800 MW from 30 November 2027.
 
MTPASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.
 
For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.
 
For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO's website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines.
 
This notice supersedes Market Notice 144788 published on 11 August 2026.
 
Forecasting
 
AEMO