NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Thursday 10 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-10

Market Snapshot

South Australian prices collapse amid widespread negative intervals and high renewables

Regional price outcomes diverged sharply as South Australia averaged $8.70/MWh, contrasting with $76.60/MWh in New South Wales and $65.70/MWh in Queensland. Negative pricing was prevalent in the south, with South Australia hitting a minimum of -$294.70/MWh and Victoria recording 38 negative intervals.

Operational demand peaked at 9,617 MW in New South Wales at 18:55, while Queensland reached 7,563 MW shortly earlier. Total system emissions rose 20.1% compared to the same day last week, reaching 319,605 tonnes of CO2.

Renewable sources provided 45.4% of daily energy, supported by a combined solar contribution of 23.7% and wind at 15.6%. Batteries contributed 14,156 MWh of discharge energy, representing 2.2% of the total generation mix for the day.

FCAS costs were concentrated in Tasmania, which saw the highest peak prices for seven of the eight frequency control services. The Lower Regulation service in Tasmania peaked at $49.00/MWh, while total Raise Regulation costs reached $36,464 across the NEM.

Today · Forward projections indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with New South Wales forecast to peak at $98.25/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $52.90/MWh sits 12.6% above the 7-day average, extending a volatile trend where prices have fluctuated between $15.80 and $71.10. This outcome is unusual because a high 70.6% renewable peak and extreme negative pricing in South Australia failed to offset rising emissions and higher prices in the northern regions.

NSW $77VIC $56QLD $66SA $9TAS $51
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $33 $65 $98 $130 -$10 $23 $55 $88 $120 $0 $28 $55 $83 $110 -$240 -$152 -$65 $23 $110 -$10 $20 $50 $80 $110 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $77 $79 $0 $123 0 0
QLD $66 $67 $0 $103 0 0
SA $9 $51 -$295 $102 200 0
VIC $56 $61 -$8 $113 38 0
TAS $51 $54 -$8 $103 38 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
9,617MW
18:55
Trough
5,229MW
13:20
Energy
362.2GWh
QLD
Peak
7,563MW
18:30
Trough
4,378MW
12:25
Energy
287.4GWh
SA
Peak
1,802MW
19:50
Trough
94MW
13:55
Energy
57.0GWh
VIC
Peak
7,135MW
19:05
Trough
3,621MW
13:35
Energy
262.3GWh
TAS
Peak
1,265MW
07:00
Trough
805MW
13:05
Energy
48.7GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,6040$1610 Sept, 16:10
LOWERREG$9080$810 Sept, 15:35
LOWER60SEC$1460$110 Sept, 13:30
RAISE6SEC$1210$010 Sept, 06:45
LOWER5MIN$1180$110 Sept, 16:25
RAISE60SEC$980$010 Sept, 06:40
LOWER6SEC$620$010 Sept, 13:20
RAISE5MIN$350$010 Sept, 06:45
Total$5,091

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,6630$1610 Sept, 16:10
LOWERREG$4,5510$810 Sept, 15:35
LOWER60SEC$3620$110 Sept, 13:30
LOWER5MIN$3340$110 Sept, 16:25
RAISE6SEC$2860$010 Sept, 06:45
RAISE60SEC$2080$010 Sept, 06:40
LOWER6SEC$1370$010 Sept, 13:20
RAISE5MIN$380$010 Sept, 06:45
Total$13,580

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$11,1090$1610 Sept, 16:10
LOWERREG$4,3770$810 Sept, 15:35
LOWER60SEC$3920$110 Sept, 13:30
RAISE6SEC$2820$010 Sept, 06:45
RAISE60SEC$2640$010 Sept, 06:40
LOWER5MIN$1700$110 Sept, 16:25
LOWER6SEC$1070$010 Sept, 13:20
RAISE5MIN$980$010 Sept, 06:45
Total$16,799

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$3,8650$810 Sept, 15:35
RAISEREG$3,7400$1610 Sept, 16:10
RAISE6SEC$3500$010 Sept, 06:45
RAISE60SEC$2650$010 Sept, 06:40
LOWER60SEC$2630$110 Sept, 13:30
LOWER5MIN$1560$110 Sept, 16:25
LOWER6SEC$1180$010 Sept, 13:20
RAISE5MIN$620$010 Sept, 06:45
Total$8,819

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,3470$2310 Sept, 17:30
LOWERREG$7,8260$4910 Sept, 17:05
RAISE6SEC$1,3010$1910 Sept, 08:45
RAISE60SEC$4210$310 Sept, 08:45
LOWER6SEC$730$110 Sept, 17:05
LOWER60SEC$670$110 Sept, 13:30
LOWER5MIN$330$210 Sept, 17:05
RAISE5MIN$100$010 Sept, 08:25
Total$20,077

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,052 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $114/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,424 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $87/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 942 MW at 19:00 as VIC spot hit $102/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 338 MW at 19:30 as SA spot hit $94/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,322 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $95/MWh.

Discharged
4,152MWh
peak 1,052 MW · 18:30
Charged
7,573MWh
peak 1,294 MW
Net
-3,421MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
55%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,633MWh
peak 1,424 MW · 18:00
Charged
6,604MWh
peak 1,363 MW
Net
-1,972MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
70%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,958MWh
peak 942 MW · 19:00
Charged
5,358MWh
peak 996 MW
Net
-1,400MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
74%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,413MWh
peak 338 MW · 19:30
Charged
2,195MWh
peak 465 MW
Net
-782MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
64%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
14,156MWh
peak 3,322 MW · 18:30
Charged
21,730MWh
peak 3,542 MW
Net
-7,574MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
65%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$300-$200-$100$0$100$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
4,633MWh
-1,972
#2NSW
4,152MWh
-3,421
#3VIC
3,958MWh
-1,400
#4SA
1,413MWh
-782

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 54.5%
  • Coal54.5% · 111.3 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro2.9% · 5.9 GWh
  • Wind9.2% · 18.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)15.5% · 31.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.4% · 31.5 GWh
  • Battery2.0% · 4.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.6%
  • Coal58.6% · 115.4 GWh
  • Gas2.9% · 5.6 GWh
  • Hydro1.6% · 3.1 GWh
  • Wind14.1% · 27.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.0% · 17.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.6% · 22.8 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 4.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 56.7%
  • Coal56.7% · 93.4 GWh
  • Gas3.1% · 5.2 GWh
  • Hydro4.8% · 8.0 GWh
  • Wind12.0% · 19.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.7% · 12.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)13.2% · 21.8 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 4.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 62.9%
  • Gas6.4% · 3.1 GWh
  • Wind62.9% · 30.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.5% · 0.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)26.3% · 12.8 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 1.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 69.2%
  • Gas12.1% · 3.7 GWh
  • Hydro69.2% · 21.2 GWh
  • Wind13.3% · 4.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)5.4% · 1.7 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.4 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.3 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.1 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.4 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.7 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
39.3%
VIC · Daily renewable share
40.6%
QLD · Daily renewable share
43.3%
SA · Daily renewable share
101.8%
TAS · Daily renewable share
92.4%
Peak instantaneous
70.6%
at 12:40
Daily NEM-wide share
45.4%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    39.3%
  • VIC
    40.6%
  • QLD
    43.3%
  • SA
    101.8%
  • TAS
    92.4%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +36.0 GWh 10 —
NSW1-QLD1 −40.7 GWh 24 —
VIC1-NSW1 −2.2 GWh 29 —
V-SA +6.9 GWh 10 —
T-V-MNSP1 +4.2 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
319.6k tCO₂
▲ 20.1% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 97.3k tCO₂ 0.472 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 103.7k tCO₂ 0.520 tCO₂/MWh
SA 1.6k tCO₂ 0.032 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 114.8k tCO₂ 0.692 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 2.2k tCO₂ 0.074 tCO₂/MWh