NEM Daily analysis

Friday 11 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-11

Market Snapshot

South Australian prices reach negative levels during high renewable penetration

Regional price averages ranged from $54.80/MWh in Tasmania to $74.80/MWh in New South Wales. South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania all experienced significant negative price intervals, with South Australia reaching a minimum of -$59.00/MWh. Maximum prices remained moderate, peaking at $174.40/MWh in Victoria during the morning demand period.

Total system demand peaked at 9,061 MW in New South Wales at 18:55. Queensland followed with a peak of 7,236 MW at 18:40, while Victoria saw its highest demand of 6,840 MW earlier at 07:25. Total daily energy consumption across the mainland regions reached approximately 939.7 GWh.

Renewables contributed 45.6% of the total generation mix, led by rooftop solar at 14.7% and wind at 12.5%. Coal remained the primary source at 50.1%, while gas and hydro provided 2.2% and 6.1% respectively. Batteries discharged 20,400 MWh to the grid, maintaining a near-neutral net energy position of 2.0 MWh.

FCAS costs were led by the Raise Regulation service at $30,442, followed by Lower Regulation at $23,630. Total emissions for the day were 316,278 tCO2, representing a 9.8% increase compared to the same day last week.

Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with New South Wales expected to reach $98.25/MWh at 20:30.

Why it matters · The daily average price sits 21.9% above the 7-day average, extending a volatile trend where prices have fluctuated between $15.80 and $71.10. This elevated average is unusual given the high 71.0% instantaneous renewable peak and the high volume of negative intervals in southern regions.

NSW $75VIC $59QLD $64SA $57TAS $55

Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS

Region	Avg	VWAP	Min	Max	Neg
NSW	$75	$77	$0	$123	0
QLD	$64	$67	$0	$113	0
SA	$57	$78	-$59	$156	168
VIC	$59	$67	-$35	$174	100
TAS	$55	$58	-$15	$158	92

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW

Peak

9,061MW

18:55

Trough

5,214MW

13:55

Energy

359.0GWh

QLD

Peak

7,236MW

18:40

Trough

4,663MW

10:55

Energy

277.9GWh

Peak

1,591MW

19:55

Trough

37MW

13:25

Energy

50.4GWh

VIC

Peak

6,840MW

07:25

Trough

3,214MW

13:15

Energy

252.4GWh

TAS

Peak

1,231MW

07:15

Trough

809MW

13:00

Energy

49.1GWh

FCAS

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$2,336	0	$16	11 Sept, 16:05
LOWERREG	$1,127	0	$14	11 Sept, 16:05
LOWER5MIN	$247	0	$5	11 Sept, 15:30
LOWER60SEC	$218	0	$5	11 Sept, 15:35
RAISE6SEC	$108	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:45
RAISE60SEC	$93	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:00
LOWER6SEC	$58	0	$0	11 Sept, 13:35
RAISE5MIN	$32	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:45
Total	$4,219

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$6,118	0	$16	11 Sept, 16:05
LOWERREG	$4,669	0	$14	11 Sept, 16:05
LOWER60SEC	$522	0	$5	11 Sept, 15:35
RAISE6SEC	$385	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:45
LOWER5MIN	$341	0	$5	11 Sept, 15:30
RAISE60SEC	$304	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:00
LOWER6SEC	$125	0	$0	11 Sept, 13:35
RAISE5MIN	$45	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:45
Total	$12,508

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$8,561	0	$16	11 Sept, 16:05
LOWERREG	$3,321	0	$14	11 Sept, 16:05
LOWER60SEC	$381	0	$5	11 Sept, 15:35
RAISE60SEC	$250	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:00
RAISE6SEC	$246	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:45
LOWER5MIN	$118	0	$5	11 Sept, 15:30
RAISE5MIN	$84	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:45
LOWER6SEC	$81	0	$0	11 Sept, 13:35
Total	$13,041

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$4,614	0	$16	11 Sept, 16:05
LOWERREG	$4,458	0	$14	11 Sept, 16:05
LOWER60SEC	$707	0	$5	11 Sept, 15:35
LOWER5MIN	$572	0	$5	11 Sept, 15:30
RAISE6SEC	$239	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:45
RAISE60SEC	$211	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:00
LOWER6SEC	$163	0	$0	11 Sept, 13:35
RAISE5MIN	$47	0	$0	11 Sept, 18:45
Total	$11,010

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
LOWERREG	$10,055	0	$27	11 Sept, 13:15
RAISEREG	$8,813	0	$11	11 Sept, 06:30
LOWER6SEC	$459	0	$19	11 Sept, 17:00
RAISE6SEC	$276	0	$0	11 Sept, 08:15
RAISE60SEC	$276	0	$0	11 Sept, 08:15
LOWER60SEC	$87	0	$4	11 Sept, 15:30
LOWER5MIN	$35	0	$2	11 Sept, 15:45
RAISE5MIN	$7	0	$0	11 Sept, 08:20
Total	$20,007

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,366 MW at 19:00 as NSW spot hit $109/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,427 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $105/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 895 MW at 07:00 as VIC spot hit $118/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 323 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $106/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,756 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $92/MWh.

Discharged

8,131MWh

peak 1,366 MW · 19:00

Charged

6,913MWh

peak 1,455 MW

Net

+1,217MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

118%

discharge / charge ratio

Discharged

5,941MWh

peak 1,427 MW · 18:00

Charged

6,482MWh

peak 1,434 MW

Net

-541MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

92%

discharge / charge ratio

Discharged

4,549MWh

peak 895 MW · 07:00

Charged

5,128MWh

peak 965 MW

Net

-579MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

89%

discharge / charge ratio

Discharged

1,779MWh

peak 323 MW · 19:00

Charged

1,875MWh

peak 449 MW

Net

-96MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

95%

discharge / charge ratio

NEM-wide

Discharged

20,400MWh

peak 3,756 MW · 19:00

Charged

20,398MWh

peak 4,142 MW

Net

+2MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

100%

discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh

Regional dispatch ranking

Region	Discharged	Peak MW	Peak time	Net
#1NSW	8,131MWh	1,366	19:00	+1,217
#2QLD	5,941MWh	1,427	18:00	-541
#3VIC	4,549MWh	895	07:00	-579
#4SA	1,779MWh	323	19:00	-96

Generation Mix

Coal56.7% · 117.4 GWh
Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
Hydro2.0% · 4.2 GWh
Wind6.5% · 13.5 GWh
Solar (utility)15.4% · 31.8 GWh
Solar (rooftop)13.9% · 28.8 GWh
Battery3.9% · 8.1 GWh
Other1.1% · 2.2 GWh

Coal54.4% · 107.4 GWh
Gas1.2% · 2.5 GWh
Hydro2.1% · 4.2 GWh
Wind14.8% · 29.3 GWh
Solar (utility)10.7% · 21.2 GWh
Solar (rooftop)13.3% · 26.2 GWh
Battery3.0% · 5.9 GWh
Other0.4% · 0.9 GWh

Coal59.0% · 94.0 GWh
Gas0.3% · 0.4 GWh
Hydro5.6% · 9.0 GWh
Wind9.2% · 14.7 GWh
Solar (utility)7.8% · 12.4 GWh
Solar (rooftop)15.2% · 24.3 GWh
Battery2.9% · 4.5 GWh

Gas13.4% · 5.7 GWh
Wind45.2% · 19.1 GWh
Solar (utility)7.1% · 3.0 GWh
Solar (rooftop)30.2% · 12.8 GWh
Battery4.2% · 1.8 GWh

Gas14.1% · 4.4 GWh
Hydro70.6% · 21.8 GWh
Wind9.4% · 2.9 GWh
Solar (rooftop)5.8% · 1.8 GWh

coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)

coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)

gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)

gashydrowindsolar rooftop

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share

38.3%

VIC · Daily renewable share

40.7%

QLD · Daily renewable share

49.4%

SA · Daily renewable share

88.6%

TAS · Daily renewable share

91.8%

Peak instantaneous

71.0%

at 13:25

Daily NEM-wide share

45.6%

By region (daily share)

NSW

38.3%
VIC

40.7%
QLD

49.4%
SA

88.6%
TAS

91.8%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy)	Net flow	Direction changes	Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1	+30.8 GWh	18	—
NSW1-QLD1	−28.7 GWh	8	—
VIC1-NSW1	+1.2 GWh	42	—
V-SA	−2.6 GWh	7	—
T-V-MNSP1	+2.6 GWh	0	—

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions

316.3k tCO₂

▲ 9.8% vs same day last week

Intensity by region

NSW	102.4k tCO₂	0.487 tCO₂/MWh
QLD	95.5k tCO₂	0.477 tCO₂/MWh
SA	2.9k tCO₂	0.068 tCO₂/MWh
VIC	112.8k tCO₂	0.700 tCO₂/MWh
TAS	2.6k tCO₂	0.086 tCO₂/MWh