Saturday 12 September 2026
Trading day 2026-09-12
South Australian prices collapse as negative intervals dominate the southern regions
Regional average prices varied significantly across the mainland, ranging from $11.90/MWh in South Australia to $54.60/MWh in New South Wales. Negative pricing was prevalent in the south, with South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania all recording over 190 negative intervals each. Queensland maintained a moderate average of $48.00/MWh despite ten negative price periods.
Renewable generation provided 48.7% of the total energy mix, driven by a combined solar contribution of 28.3% from utility and rooftop sources. Coal remained the primary generation source at 47.4%, while gas and hydro contributed 1.7% and 5.9% respectively. Wind generation accounted for 13.9% of the total mix during the period.
Battery storage systems discharged 16,343 MWh into the grid, though the fleet remained a net consumer with a net balance of -3,720 MWh. FCAS costs were relatively subdued, with the highest total expenditure occurring in the Raise Regulation service at $32,718. Total emissions for the day were 273,227 tCO2, representing a 10.6% increase compared to the same day last week.
Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into New South Wales and from Tasmania into Victoria. Queensland and New South Wales exchanged high volumes, with the NSW1-QLD1 link recording a net flow of 27,736 MWh towards the north. Demand across the NEM peaked in the early evening as rooftop solar contributions diminished.
Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, while other regions expect peaks between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.
Why it matters · The daily average price of $43.80/MWh sits 10.9% below the weekly average, breaking a three-day trend of prices exceeding $50.00/MWh. This softening occurred as extreme negative pricing in South Australia and Victoria coincided with a high 76.3% instantaneous renewable peak and rising emissions.
Prices
Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average
| Region | Avg | VWAP | Min | Max | Neg | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | $55 | $60 | $0 | $97 | 0 | 0 |
| QLD | $48 | $52 | -$3 | $85 | 10 | 0 |
| SA | $12 | $34 | -$223 | $96 | 310 | 0 |
| VIC | $24 | $29 | -$8 | $96 | 202 | 0 |
| TAS | $29 | $32 | -$10 | $92 | 192 | 0 |
Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.
Demand
FCAS
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $3,356 | 0 | $20 | 12 Sept, 07:25 |
| LOWERREG | $840 | 0 | $8 | 12 Sept, 15:45 |
| LOWER60SEC | $197 | 0 | $1 | 12 Sept, 14:55 |
| LOWER5MIN | $147 | 0 | $2 | 12 Sept, 15:50 |
| RAISE60SEC | $104 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 04:05 |
| RAISE6SEC | $99 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 17:55 |
| LOWER6SEC | $78 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 13:55 |
| RAISE5MIN | $38 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 18:40 |
| Total | $4,859 | |||
Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $7,945 | 0 | $20 | 12 Sept, 07:25 |
| LOWERREG | $5,620 | 0 | $8 | 12 Sept, 15:45 |
| LOWER60SEC | $419 | 0 | $1 | 12 Sept, 14:55 |
| LOWER5MIN | $337 | 0 | $2 | 12 Sept, 15:50 |
| RAISE6SEC | $282 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 17:55 |
| RAISE60SEC | $273 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 04:05 |
| LOWER6SEC | $202 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 13:55 |
| RAISE5MIN | $44 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 18:40 |
| Total | $15,123 | |||
Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $8,851 | 0 | $20 | 12 Sept, 07:25 |
| LOWERREG | $2,589 | 0 | $8 | 12 Sept, 15:45 |
| LOWER60SEC | $544 | 0 | $1 | 12 Sept, 14:55 |
| LOWER5MIN | $231 | 0 | $2 | 12 Sept, 15:50 |
| RAISE60SEC | $224 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 04:05 |
| RAISE6SEC | $186 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 17:55 |
| LOWER6SEC | $179 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 13:55 |
| RAISE5MIN | $91 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 18:40 |
| Total | $12,894 | |||
Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOWERREG | $4,430 | 0 | $8 | 12 Sept, 15:45 |
| RAISEREG | $3,992 | 0 | $20 | 12 Sept, 07:25 |
| LOWER60SEC | $527 | 0 | $2 | 12 Sept, 09:55 |
| LOWER5MIN | $367 | 0 | $2 | 12 Sept, 15:50 |
| LOWER6SEC | $276 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 08:35 |
| RAISE60SEC | $170 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 04:05 |
| RAISE6SEC | $169 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 17:55 |
| RAISE5MIN | $43 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 18:40 |
| Total | $9,976 | |||
Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOWERREG | $10,356 | 0 | $20 | 13 Sept, 03:05 |
| RAISEREG | $8,574 | 0 | $5 | 12 Sept, 12:05 |
| RAISE6SEC | $776 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 07:45 |
| RAISE60SEC | $776 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 19:35 |
| LOWER6SEC | $249 | 0 | $3 | 12 Sept, 07:55 |
| LOWER60SEC | $202 | 0 | $1 | 12 Sept, 14:55 |
| RAISE5MIN | $20 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 07:10 |
| LOWER5MIN | $10 | 0 | $0 | 12 Sept, 13:30 |
| Total | $20,964 | |||
Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
Battery dispatch
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,451 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $83/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,397 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $77/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 829 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $83/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 314 MW at 19:30 as SA spot hit $75/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 3,967 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $81/MWh.
Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average
Regional dispatch ranking
| Region | Discharged | Net |
|---|---|---|
#1NSW | 6,315MWh | -1,984 |
#2QLD | 5,290MWh | -794 |
#3VIC | 3,371MWh | -469 |
#4SA | 1,367MWh | -474 |
Generation Mix
- Coal53.0% · 106.1 GWh
- Gas0.5% · 1.0 GWh
- Hydro2.8% · 5.7 GWh
- Wind6.3% · 12.6 GWh
- Solar (utility)16.0% · 32.1 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)18.2% · 36.3 GWh
- Battery3.2% · 6.3 GWh
- Coal53.0% · 98.2 GWh
- Gas1.3% · 2.5 GWh
- Hydro2.0% · 3.7 GWh
- Wind14.0% · 25.9 GWh
- Solar (utility)11.9% · 22.0 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)14.9% · 27.6 GWh
- Battery2.9% · 5.3 GWh
- Other0.2% · 0.3 GWh
- Coal51.5% · 75.6 GWh
- Hydro4.3% · 6.3 GWh
- Wind18.6% · 27.2 GWh
- Solar (utility)7.7% · 11.3 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)15.6% · 22.9 GWh
- Battery2.3% · 3.4 GWh
- Gas9.7% · 3.2 GWh
- Wind45.7% · 15.3 GWh
- Solar (utility)2.9% · 1.0 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)37.6% · 12.5 GWh
- Battery4.1% · 1.4 GWh
- Gas13.0% · 3.3 GWh
- Hydro75.4% · 19.2 GWh
- Wind4.6% · 1.2 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)7.0% · 1.8 GWh
Renewables
- NSW 43.0%
- VIC 50.7%
- QLD 50.9%
- SA 81.6%
- TAS 78.3%
Interconnectors
| Region (proxy) | Net flow | Direction changes | Hours at limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-Q-MNSP1 | +25.3 GWh | 4 | — |
| NSW1-QLD1 | −27.7 GWh | 20 | — |
| VIC1-NSW1 | +17.8 GWh | 31 | — |
| V-SA | −748 MWh | 19 | — |
| T-V-MNSP1 | −11.3 GWh | 0 | — |
Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).
Emissions
| NSW | 92.5k tCO₂ | 0.454 tCO₂/MWh |
| QLD | 87.4k tCO₂ | 0.465 tCO₂/MWh |
| SA | 1.5k tCO₂ | 0.044 tCO₂/MWh |
| VIC | 89.8k tCO₂ | 0.610 tCO₂/MWh |
| TAS | 2.0k tCO₂ | 0.079 tCO₂/MWh |