NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Saturday 12 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-12

Market Snapshot

South Australian prices collapse as negative intervals dominate the southern regions

Regional average prices varied significantly across the mainland, ranging from $11.90/MWh in South Australia to $54.60/MWh in New South Wales. Negative pricing was prevalent in the south, with South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania all recording over 190 negative intervals each. Queensland maintained a moderate average of $48.00/MWh despite ten negative price periods.

Renewable generation provided 48.7% of the total energy mix, driven by a combined solar contribution of 28.3% from utility and rooftop sources. Coal remained the primary generation source at 47.4%, while gas and hydro contributed 1.7% and 5.9% respectively. Wind generation accounted for 13.9% of the total mix during the period.

Battery storage systems discharged 16,343 MWh into the grid, though the fleet remained a net consumer with a net balance of -3,720 MWh. FCAS costs were relatively subdued, with the highest total expenditure occurring in the Raise Regulation service at $32,718. Total emissions for the day were 273,227 tCO2, representing a 10.6% increase compared to the same day last week.

Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into New South Wales and from Tasmania into Victoria. Queensland and New South Wales exchanged high volumes, with the NSW1-QLD1 link recording a net flow of 27,736 MWh towards the north. Demand across the NEM peaked in the early evening as rooftop solar contributions diminished.

Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, while other regions expect peaks between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average price of $43.80/MWh sits 10.9% below the weekly average, breaking a three-day trend of prices exceeding $50.00/MWh. This softening occurred as extreme negative pricing in South Australia and Victoria coincided with a high 76.3% instantaneous renewable peak and rising emissions.

NSW $55VIC $24QLD $48SA $12TAS $29
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $28 $55 $83 $110 -$10 $20 $50 $80 $110 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$160 -$92 -$25 $43 $110 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $55 $60 $0 $97 0 0
QLD $48 $52 -$3 $85 10 0
SA $12 $34 -$223 $96 310 0
VIC $24 $29 -$8 $96 202 0
TAS $29 $32 -$10 $92 192 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,356MW
18:50
Trough
3,926MW
13:10
Energy
311.1GWh
QLD
Peak
6,916MW
18:30
Trough
3,339MW
11:05
Energy
257.1GWh
SA
Peak
1,437MW
18:55
Trough
-75MW
13:25
Energy
43.8GWh
VIC
Peak
5,709MW
19:00
Trough
2,479MW
13:40
Energy
211.9GWh
TAS
Peak
1,222MW
19:05
Trough
822MW
13:05
Energy
48.7GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,3560$2012 Sept, 07:25
LOWERREG$8400$812 Sept, 15:45
LOWER60SEC$1970$112 Sept, 14:55
LOWER5MIN$1470$212 Sept, 15:50
RAISE60SEC$1040$012 Sept, 04:05
RAISE6SEC$990$012 Sept, 17:55
LOWER6SEC$780$012 Sept, 13:55
RAISE5MIN$380$012 Sept, 18:40
Total$4,859

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,9450$2012 Sept, 07:25
LOWERREG$5,6200$812 Sept, 15:45
LOWER60SEC$4190$112 Sept, 14:55
LOWER5MIN$3370$212 Sept, 15:50
RAISE6SEC$2820$012 Sept, 17:55
RAISE60SEC$2730$012 Sept, 04:05
LOWER6SEC$2020$012 Sept, 13:55
RAISE5MIN$440$012 Sept, 18:40
Total$15,123

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,8510$2012 Sept, 07:25
LOWERREG$2,5890$812 Sept, 15:45
LOWER60SEC$5440$112 Sept, 14:55
LOWER5MIN$2310$212 Sept, 15:50
RAISE60SEC$2240$012 Sept, 04:05
RAISE6SEC$1860$012 Sept, 17:55
LOWER6SEC$1790$012 Sept, 13:55
RAISE5MIN$910$012 Sept, 18:40
Total$12,894

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$4,4300$812 Sept, 15:45
RAISEREG$3,9920$2012 Sept, 07:25
LOWER60SEC$5270$212 Sept, 09:55
LOWER5MIN$3670$212 Sept, 15:50
LOWER6SEC$2760$012 Sept, 08:35
RAISE60SEC$1700$012 Sept, 04:05
RAISE6SEC$1690$012 Sept, 17:55
RAISE5MIN$430$012 Sept, 18:40
Total$9,976

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$10,3560$2013 Sept, 03:05
RAISEREG$8,5740$512 Sept, 12:05
RAISE6SEC$7760$012 Sept, 07:45
RAISE60SEC$7760$012 Sept, 19:35
LOWER6SEC$2490$312 Sept, 07:55
LOWER60SEC$2020$112 Sept, 14:55
RAISE5MIN$200$012 Sept, 07:10
LOWER5MIN$100$012 Sept, 13:30
Total$20,964

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,451 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $83/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,397 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $77/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 829 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $83/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 314 MW at 19:30 as SA spot hit $75/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,967 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $81/MWh.

Discharged
6,315MWh
peak 1,451 MW · 18:30
Charged
8,299MWh
peak 1,466 MW
Net
-1,984MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
76%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,290MWh
peak 1,397 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,083MWh
peak 1,101 MW
Net
-794MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
87%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,371MWh
peak 829 MW · 18:30
Charged
3,840MWh
peak 810 MW
Net
-469MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
88%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,367MWh
peak 314 MW · 19:30
Charged
1,841MWh
peak 480 MW
Net
-474MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
74%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
16,343MWh
peak 3,967 MW · 18:30
Charged
20,063MWh
peak 3,289 MW
Net
-3,720MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
81%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$200-$100$0$10023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,315MWh
-1,984
#2QLD
5,290MWh
-794
#3VIC
3,371MWh
-469
#4SA
1,367MWh
-474

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 53.0%
  • Coal53.0% · 106.1 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro2.8% · 5.7 GWh
  • Wind6.3% · 12.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)16.0% · 32.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.2% · 36.3 GWh
  • Battery3.2% · 6.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 53.0%
  • Coal53.0% · 98.2 GWh
  • Gas1.3% · 2.5 GWh
  • Hydro2.0% · 3.7 GWh
  • Wind14.0% · 25.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.9% · 22.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.9% · 27.6 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 5.3 GWh
  • Other0.2% · 0.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 51.5%
  • Coal51.5% · 75.6 GWh
  • Hydro4.3% · 6.3 GWh
  • Wind18.6% · 27.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.7% · 11.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.6% · 22.9 GWh
  • Battery2.3% · 3.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 45.7%
  • Gas9.7% · 3.2 GWh
  • Wind45.7% · 15.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.9% · 1.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)37.6% · 12.5 GWh
  • Battery4.1% · 1.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 75.4%
  • Gas13.0% · 3.3 GWh
  • Hydro75.4% · 19.2 GWh
  • Wind4.6% · 1.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)7.0% · 1.8 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.2 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.2 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:007.4 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.9 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.4 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
43.0%
VIC · Daily renewable share
50.7%
QLD · Daily renewable share
50.9%
SA · Daily renewable share
81.6%
TAS · Daily renewable share
78.3%
Peak instantaneous
76.3%
at 12:05
Daily NEM-wide share
48.7%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    43.0%
  • VIC
    50.7%
  • QLD
    50.9%
  • SA
    81.6%
  • TAS
    78.3%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +25.3 GWh 4
NSW1-QLD1 −27.7 GWh 20
VIC1-NSW1 +17.8 GWh 31
V-SA −748 MWh 19
T-V-MNSP1 −11.3 GWh 0

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
273.2k tCO₂
▲ 10.6% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 92.5k tCO₂ 0.454 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 87.4k tCO₂ 0.465 tCO₂/MWh
SA 1.5k tCO₂ 0.044 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 89.8k tCO₂ 0.610 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 2.0k tCO₂ 0.079 tCO₂/MWh