NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 11 October 2026

Trading day 2026-10-11

Market Snapshot

SA averages -$40.1/MWh as NEM renewable share peaks at 78.5 per cent

NSW averaged $129.3/MWh and QLD averaged $105.0/MWh. SA recorded an average of -$40.1/MWh with 27.3 hours of negative prices. VIC averaged -$8.2/MWh and TAS averaged -$3.2/MWh.

NEM demand peaked at 8141 MW in NSW at 18:15. Coal contributed 44.5 per cent of generation, rooftop solar 21.3 per cent and wind 13.4 per cent.

Batteries discharged 12,364 MWh with a net position of -6863 MWh. Total FCAS costs were low, led by raise regulation at $36,347.

AEMO's notice at 22:57 stated a forecast LOR1 in NSW for 12 October. Total emissions were 263,226 tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts show QLD reaching $319.04/MWh at 19:30 and SA reaching $145.0/MWh at 18:30.

In context · The NEM average of $44.9/MWh ranked lowest for the week, below the 7-day average of $67.9/MWh. SA's average of -$40.1/MWh was also its lowest of the seven days.

NSW $129VIC $-8QLD $105SA $-40TAS $-3
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $68 $145 $223 $300 -$170 -$87 -$5 $78 $160 -$10 $58 $125 $193 $260 -$270 -$157 -$45 $68 $180 -$140 -$67 $5 $78 $150 05:00 11:00 17:00 23:00 05:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $129 $152 -$10 $300 68 0
QLD $105 $123 -$8 $288 192 0
SA -$40 -$6 -$415 $203 328 0
VIC -$8 $2 -$365 $180 324 0
TAS -$3 -$2 -$158 $167 280 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,141MW
19:15
Trough
3,348MW
13:15
Energy
285.4GWh
QLD
Peak
7,725MW
19:30
Trough
3,492MW
11:50
Energy
271.1GWh
SA
Peak
1,502MW
20:30
Trough
-101MW
12:45
Energy
47.1GWh
VIC
Peak
5,417MW
20:05
Trough
1,555MW
13:10
Energy
189.3GWh
TAS
Peak
1,121MW
21:00
Trough
828MW
13:45
Energy
46.8GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,8490$1811 Oct, 16:25
LOWERREG$1,1940$2411 Oct, 17:05
LOWER60SEC$1600$011 Oct, 15:45
RAISE6SEC$1290$011 Oct, 05:05
RAISE60SEC$1270$011 Oct, 05:05
LOWER5MIN$720$011 Oct, 15:45
LOWER6SEC$550$011 Oct, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$360$012 Oct, 02:15
Total$5,622

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,8170$1811 Oct, 16:25
LOWERREG$5,6760$2411 Oct, 17:05
RAISE60SEC$4290$011 Oct, 05:05
RAISE6SEC$3810$011 Oct, 05:05
LOWER60SEC$2610$011 Oct, 15:45
LOWER5MIN$910$011 Oct, 15:45
LOWER6SEC$680$011 Oct, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$550$012 Oct, 02:15
Total$12,777

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$11,5260$1811 Oct, 16:25
LOWERREG$5,3620$2411 Oct, 17:05
RAISE60SEC$4410$011 Oct, 05:05
RAISE6SEC$3760$011 Oct, 05:05
LOWER60SEC$3710$011 Oct, 15:45
LOWER5MIN$1840$011 Oct, 15:45
LOWER6SEC$1600$011 Oct, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$1010$012 Oct, 02:15
Total$18,520

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,8930$1811 Oct, 16:25
LOWERREG$2,7300$2411 Oct, 17:05
LOWER60SEC$2940$011 Oct, 15:45
RAISE60SEC$2760$011 Oct, 05:05
RAISE6SEC$2370$011 Oct, 05:05
LOWER5MIN$1240$011 Oct, 15:45
LOWER6SEC$1030$011 Oct, 13:40
RAISE5MIN$280$012 Oct, 02:15
Total$7,684

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$11,2630$7811 Oct, 05:20
LOWERREG$4,2330$411 Oct, 06:10
RAISE6SEC$8060$011 Oct, 06:25
RAISE60SEC$7920$011 Oct, 06:25
LOWER6SEC$610$211 Oct, 07:05
LOWER60SEC$170$011 Oct, 06:55
LOWER5MIN$90$011 Oct, 15:10
RAISE5MIN$70$011 Oct, 06:50
Total$17,188

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 792 MW at 20:00 as NSW spot hit $242/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,455 MW at 19:30 as QLD spot hit $188/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet peaked at 488 MW around 01:30.

Peak moment

Fleet peaked at 239 MW around 01:30.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,224 MW at 20:00 as TAS spot hit -$2/MWh.

Discharged
3,809MWh
peak 792 MW · 20:00
Charged
5,798MWh
peak 1,416 MW
Net
-1,989MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
66%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,648MWh
peak 1,455 MW · 19:30
Charged
5,946MWh
peak 1,259 MW
Net
-298MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
95%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,018MWh
peak 488 MW · 01:30
Charged
5,123MWh
peak 1,115 MW
Net
-3,105MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
39%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
890MWh
peak 239 MW · 01:30
Charged
2,361MWh
peak 392 MW
Net
-1,471MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
38%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
12,364MWh
peak 2,224 MW · 20:00
Charged
19,227MWh
peak 3,476 MW
Net
-6,863MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
64%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$400-$200$0$200$40000:3007:3714:4521:5205:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,648MWh
-298
#2NSW
3,809MWh
-1,989
#3VIC
2,018MWh
-3,105
#4SA
890MWh
-1,471

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 40.7%
  • Coal40.7% · 73.8 GWh
  • Gas1.6% · 3.0 GWh
  • Hydro9.1% · 16.5 GWh
  • Wind4.4% · 8.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)16.8% · 30.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)25.3% · 45.8 GWh
  • Battery2.1% · 3.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 54.2%
  • Coal54.2% · 113.0 GWh
  • Gas2.1% · 4.5 GWh
  • Hydro2.8% · 5.9 GWh
  • Wind6.5% · 13.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.8% · 26.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.5% · 38.5 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.6 GWh
  • Other0.4% · 0.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 52.6%
  • Coal52.6% · 78.7 GWh
  • Hydro0.1% · 0.2 GWh
  • Wind22.8% · 34.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.5% · 5.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)19.6% · 29.4 GWh
  • Battery1.3% · 2.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 50.2%
  • Gas15.2% · 5.8 GWh
  • Wind50.2% · 19.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)0.3% · 0.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)31.9% · 12.1 GWh
  • Battery2.3% · 0.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 65.0%
  • Hydro65.0% · 13.4 GWh
  • Wind27.0% · 5.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)8.0% · 1.7 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0011.1 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.5 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:006.9 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:002.1 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:001.3 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
49.2%
VIC · Daily renewable share
52.7%
QLD · Daily renewable share
49.1%
SA · Daily renewable share
83.2%
TAS · Daily renewable share
77.7%
Peak instantaneous
78.5%
at 13:00
Daily NEM-wide share
49.9%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    49.2%
  • VIC
    52.7%
  • QLD
    49.1%
  • SA
    83.2%
  • TAS
    77.7%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +39.0 GWh 4 —
NSW1-QLD1 −48.4 GWh 8 —
VIC1-NSW1 +38.1 GWh 4 —
V-SA −6.3 GWh 19 —
T-V-MNSP1 −16.8 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
263.2k tCO₂
▼ 6.0% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 66.3k tCO₂ 0.362 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 101.4k tCO₂ 0.481 tCO₂/MWh
SA 2.7k tCO₂ 0.070 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 92.9k tCO₂ 0.625 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh