NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Friday 4 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-04

Market Snapshot

Renewable generation peaks at 78.2 percent amid widespread negative pricing intervals

Regional price averages diverged significantly, ranging from $22.40/MWh in South Australia to $58.30/MWh in New South Wales. Negative pricing was a dominant feature of the day, with Victoria recording 210 intervals below zero and South Australia following with 200 intervals. Queensland also saw 172 negative intervals, while New South Wales remained the most stable with only 16.

Renewable energy reached an instantaneous peak of 78.2% at 13:10, with solar and wind contributing a combined 44.6% of the daily mix. Coal remained the primary baseload source at 45.8%, while gas generation was minimal at 1.8%. Hydro contributed 5.1% to the total generation profile as emissions fell 17.1% compared to the same day last week.

Batteries discharged 17,486 MWh throughout the day but ended with a net load of 4,534 MWh after recharging. FCAS costs were concentrated in Tasmania, where the Raise Regulation service reached a peak price of $134.00/MWh. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into South Australia and New South Wales to balance regional demand.

Evening demand peaks were consistent across the mainland between 17:55 and 18:25, led by New South Wales at 8,594 MW. Total daily energy consumption was highest in New South Wales at 325.5 GWh, followed by Queensland at 268.3 GWh. Minimum prices reached as low as -$69.70/MWh in South Australia during the midday renewable peak.

Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions peaking between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average price of $38.10/MWh sits 26% below the 7-day average, continuing a volatile trend where prices have fluctuated between $22 and $76. This low price environment was driven by a high 49.5% renewable share and 712 combined negative intervals across the NEM, which successfully offset the 17.1% drop in weekly emissions.

NSW $58VIC $26QLD $49SA $22TAS $34
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $55 $120 $185 $250 -$20 $43 $105 $168 $230 -$10 $48 $105 $163 $220 -$20 $20 $60 $100 $140 -$10 $45 $100 $155 $210 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $58 $64 -$7 $300 16 0
QLD $49 $55 -$8 $257 172 0
SA $22 $22 -$70 $157 200 0
VIC $26 $29 -$61 $253 210 0
TAS $34 $36 -$13 $234 104 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,594MW
18:05
Trough
4,494MW
12:20
Energy
325.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,277MW
17:55
Trough
3,821MW
10:45
Energy
268.3GWh
SA
Peak
1,792MW
11:45
Trough
1,013MW
15:30
Energy
68.9GWh
VIC
Peak
6,970MW
18:25
Trough
4,053MW
12:00
Energy
261.1GWh
TAS
Peak
1,307MW
18:25
Trough
884MW
12:55
Energy
51.3GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,1860$204 Sept, 08:00
LOWERREG$4480$74 Sept, 07:45
RAISE6SEC$830$04 Sept, 05:45
RAISE60SEC$800$04 Sept, 04:05
LOWER6SEC$720$14 Sept, 13:30
LOWER60SEC$710$04 Sept, 15:20
LOWER5MIN$410$04 Sept, 15:45
RAISE5MIN$270$04 Sept, 05:55
Total$4,008

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,7370$204 Sept, 08:00
LOWERREG$3,0380$74 Sept, 07:45
RAISE6SEC$2840$04 Sept, 05:45
LOWER60SEC$2620$04 Sept, 15:20
RAISE60SEC$2530$04 Sept, 04:05
LOWER6SEC$2470$14 Sept, 13:30
LOWER5MIN$740$04 Sept, 15:45
RAISE5MIN$370$04 Sept, 05:55
Total$13,931

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,1170$204 Sept, 08:00
LOWERREG$3,2800$74 Sept, 07:45
RAISE60SEC$2230$04 Sept, 04:05
RAISE6SEC$2110$04 Sept, 05:45
LOWER60SEC$1870$04 Sept, 15:20
LOWER6SEC$1680$14 Sept, 13:30
RAISE5MIN$920$04 Sept, 05:55
LOWER5MIN$730$04 Sept, 15:45
Total$12,350

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,4030$204 Sept, 08:00
LOWERREG$4,3570$74 Sept, 07:45
RAISE6SEC$2190$04 Sept, 05:45
LOWER60SEC$2150$04 Sept, 15:20
LOWER6SEC$2140$14 Sept, 13:30
RAISE60SEC$1870$04 Sept, 04:05
LOWER5MIN$850$04 Sept, 15:45
RAISE5MIN$400$04 Sept, 05:55
Total$9,721

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$18,8550$1344 Sept, 06:50
LOWERREG$4,3650$215 Sept, 00:15
RAISE6SEC$3,4620$1234 Sept, 08:35
RAISE60SEC$7390$04 Sept, 08:05
LOWER6SEC$200$34 Sept, 21:15
LOWER60SEC$150$14 Sept, 21:15
RAISE5MIN$60$04 Sept, 08:35
LOWER5MIN$00$04 Sept, 15:45
Total$27,462

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,482 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $71/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,355 MW at 19:00 as QLD spot hit $67/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 459 MW at 07:00 as VIC spot hit $211/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 346 MW at 20:30 as SA spot hit $16/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,151 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $35/MWh.

Discharged
6,829MWh
peak 1,482 MW · 18:00
Charged
8,141MWh
peak 1,674 MW
Net
-1,313MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
84%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,622MWh
peak 1,355 MW · 19:00
Charged
6,455MWh
peak 1,275 MW
Net
-833MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
87%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,619MWh
peak 459 MW · 07:00
Charged
5,641MWh
peak 1,251 MW
Net
-2,022MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
64%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,417MWh
peak 346 MW · 20:30
Charged
1,784MWh
peak 374 MW
Net
-367MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
79%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
17,487MWh
peak 3,151 MW · 18:30
Charged
22,020MWh
peak 4,181 MW
Net
-4,534MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
79%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-6.0 GW-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100$0$100$200$30023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,829MWh
-1,313
#2QLD
5,622MWh
-833
#3VIC
3,619MWh
-2,022
#4SA
1,417MWh
-367

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 52.0%
  • Coal52.0% · 102.3 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro3.2% · 6.2 GWh
  • Wind8.1% · 15.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)14.5% · 28.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.3% · 36.0 GWh
  • Battery3.5% · 6.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 55.9%
  • Coal55.9% · 113.1 GWh
  • Gas1.5% · 2.9 GWh
  • Hydro2.2% · 4.5 GWh
  • Wind6.7% · 13.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)13.1% · 26.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.5% · 35.5 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 5.6 GWh
  • Other0.3% · 0.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 46.3%
  • Coal46.3% · 78.1 GWh
  • Gas1.1% · 1.9 GWh
  • Hydro3.1% · 5.2 GWh
  • Wind33.5% · 56.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.7% · 6.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.2% · 17.2 GWh
  • Battery2.1% · 3.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 73.4%
  • Gas10.9% · 5.1 GWh
  • Wind73.4% · 34.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.1% · 1.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.6% · 5.0 GWh
  • Battery3.0% · 1.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 61.0%
  • Gas1.7% · 0.5 GWh
  • Hydro61.0% · 16.5 GWh
  • Wind32.5% · 8.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.7% · 1.3 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.9 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.3 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.4 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.7 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.6 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
41.8%
VIC · Daily renewable share
54.3%
QLD · Daily renewable share
47.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
100.1%
TAS · Daily renewable share
88.6%
Peak instantaneous
78.2%
at 13:10
Daily NEM-wide share
49.5%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    41.8%
  • VIC
    54.3%
  • QLD
    47.5%
  • SA
    100.1%
  • TAS
    88.6%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +22.2 GWh 29
NSW1-QLD1 −40.4 GWh 4
VIC1-NSW1 +18.8 GWh 26
V-SA +16.6 GWh 21
T-V-MNSP1 −11.4 GWh 1

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
288.1k tCO₂
▼ 17.1% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 89.8k tCO₂ 0.446 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 100.5k tCO₂ 0.490 tCO₂/MWh
SA 2.4k tCO₂ 0.050 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 95.2k tCO₂ 0.562 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 282 tCO₂ 0.011 tCO₂/MWh