NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Thursday 3 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-03

Market Snapshot

Renewables reach fifty-three percent share as Queensland records high negative intervals

Average regional prices were tightly clustered between $52.10/MWh in Queensland and $61.30/MWh in New South Wales. Despite the low averages, Tasmania recorded the highest single price spike of $220.40/MWh during the evening peak. Queensland and New South Wales saw significant negative pricing, with 206 and 174 intervals below zero respectively.

Demand peaked across all regions between 18:00 and 19:00, led by New South Wales at 8,886 MW. The generation mix was dominated by coal at 42.5% and wind at 24.4%, while solar sources combined for 23.1%. Hydro and gas provided smaller shares of 5.0% and 2.4% respectively to meet the evening ramp.

Batteries discharged 16,608 MWh into the grid but remained net consumers with a total net energy of -3,402 MWh. FCAS costs were concentrated in Tasmania, where the Raise Regulation service peaked at $1,002/MWh across two intervals. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into New South Wales and from South Australia into Victoria.

Today · Predispatch forecasts suggest a Queensland price peak of $319.04/MWh at 19:30, while other regions expect peaks between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average price of $45.20/MWh sits 24.8% below the 7-day average, continuing a four-day trend of sub-$65 pricing. This sustained low-price environment coincides with a high 52.9% renewable share and a sharp 23.9% reduction in weekly emissions despite batteries remaining net consumers.

NSW $61VIC $58QLD $52SA $59TAS $57
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $33 $75 $118 $160 -$10 $33 $75 $118 $160 -$30 $15 $60 $105 $150 -$20 $30 $80 $130 $180 -$10 $30 $70 $110 $150 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $61 $69 -$12 $163 174 0
QLD $52 $61 -$35 $151 206 0
SA $59 $66 -$20 $198 158 0
VIC $58 $63 -$12 $217 48 0
TAS $57 $60 -$9 $220 40 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,886MW
18:05
Trough
4,550MW
12:45
Energy
326.7GWh
QLD
Peak
7,524MW
18:00
Trough
3,570MW
12:40
Energy
267.0GWh
SA
Peak
1,815MW
19:00
Trough
941MW
14:40
Energy
65.6GWh
VIC
Peak
6,998MW
18:40
Trough
3,859MW
14:50
Energy
265.1GWh
TAS
Peak
1,310MW
18:45
Trough
834MW
12:00
Energy
51.0GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,7080$443 Sept, 19:55
LOWERREG$3660$83 Sept, 13:40
LOWER60SEC$1560$13 Sept, 13:15
LOWER6SEC$1460$13 Sept, 13:15
LOWER5MIN$1340$13 Sept, 16:10
RAISE6SEC$1320$04 Sept, 02:05
RAISE60SEC$1200$04 Sept, 02:05
RAISE5MIN$300$03 Sept, 06:55
Total$5,791

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$12,5670$443 Sept, 19:55
LOWERREG$4,1990$83 Sept, 13:40
LOWER60SEC$5160$13 Sept, 13:15
LOWER6SEC$4810$13 Sept, 13:15
RAISE6SEC$4060$03 Sept, 07:00
RAISE60SEC$3720$03 Sept, 06:35
LOWER5MIN$2180$13 Sept, 16:10
RAISE5MIN$490$03 Sept, 06:55
Total$18,809

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,9010$443 Sept, 19:55
LOWERREG$3,5460$83 Sept, 13:40
LOWER60SEC$5550$13 Sept, 13:15
LOWER6SEC$4840$13 Sept, 13:15
RAISE60SEC$3500$04 Sept, 02:05
RAISE6SEC$3430$04 Sept, 02:05
LOWER5MIN$2330$13 Sept, 16:10
RAISE5MIN$1000$03 Sept, 06:55
Total$16,512

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,0610$443 Sept, 19:55
LOWERREG$4,1240$83 Sept, 13:40
LOWER60SEC$3370$13 Sept, 13:15
LOWER6SEC$3290$13 Sept, 13:15
RAISE6SEC$2680$04 Sept, 02:05
RAISE60SEC$2530$04 Sept, 02:05
LOWER5MIN$2310$13 Sept, 16:10
RAISE5MIN$510$03 Sept, 06:55
Total$11,654

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$28,9902$1,0023 Sept, 14:20
LOWERREG$9,9360$613 Sept, 04:20
RAISE6SEC$2,6980$933 Sept, 17:15
LOWER6SEC$5410$443 Sept, 10:10
RAISE60SEC$4460$03 Sept, 04:05
LOWER60SEC$950$13 Sept, 09:45
LOWER5MIN$740$13 Sept, 16:10
RAISE5MIN$80$03 Sept, 17:05
Total$42,787

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,082 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $121/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,462 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $109/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 913 MW at 19:00 as VIC spot hit $115/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 367 MW at 19:30 as SA spot hit $152/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,620 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $111/MWh.

Discharged
4,948MWh
peak 1,082 MW · 18:30
Charged
5,818MWh
peak 927 MW
Net
-869MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
85%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,245MWh
peak 1,462 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,364MWh
peak 1,418 MW
Net
-1,119MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
82%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,891MWh
peak 913 MW · 19:00
Charged
5,845MWh
peak 1,081 MW
Net
-953MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
84%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,523MWh
peak 367 MW · 19:30
Charged
1,983MWh
peak 417 MW
Net
-460MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
16,608MWh
peak 3,620 MW · 18:30
Charged
20,010MWh
peak 2,755 MW
Net
-3,402MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
83%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$150$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,245MWh
-1,119
#2NSW
4,948MWh
-869
#3VIC
4,891MWh
-953
#4SA
1,523MWh
-460

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 44.7%
  • Coal44.7% · 90.7 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro3.3% · 6.7 GWh
  • Wind19.7% · 40.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.9% · 24.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.4% · 35.2 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 4.9 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 56.0%
  • Coal56.0% · 110.4 GWh
  • Gas1.9% · 3.8 GWh
  • Hydro2.3% · 4.5 GWh
  • Wind8.2% · 16.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.1% · 21.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.7% · 35.0 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.2 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 40.0%
  • Coal40.0% · 68.9 GWh
  • Gas2.6% · 4.5 GWh
  • Hydro4.4% · 7.5 GWh
  • Wind38.2% · 65.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.7% · 6.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)8.3% · 14.2 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 4.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 56.2%
  • Gas15.7% · 5.9 GWh
  • Wind56.2% · 21.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)6.2% · 2.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.8% · 6.7 GWh
  • Battery4.0% · 1.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 49.5%
  • Hydro49.5% · 13.0 GWh
  • Wind45.6% · 12.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.9% · 1.3 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.2 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.1 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.5 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.9 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.7 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
49.8%
VIC · Daily renewable share
61.6%
QLD · Daily renewable share
46.7%
SA · Daily renewable share
73.8%
TAS · Daily renewable share
87.0%
Peak instantaneous
78.8%
at 11:30
Daily NEM-wide share
52.9%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    49.8%
  • VIC
    61.6%
  • QLD
    46.7%
  • SA
    73.8%
  • TAS
    87.0%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +35.2 GWh 2
NSW1-QLD1 −32.8 GWh 26
VIC1-NSW1 +21.7 GWh 10
V-SA −16.7 GWh 3
T-V-MNSP1 −2.3 GWh 0

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
266.1k tCO₂
▼ 23.9% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 79.4k tCO₂ 0.387 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 98.4k tCO₂ 0.491 tCO₂/MWh
SA 3.0k tCO₂ 0.079 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 85.3k tCO₂ 0.491 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh