Saturday 5 September 2026
Trading day 2026-09-05
Victoria records negative daily average price amid high renewable penetration
Regional price outcomes diverged significantly with Victoria averaging -$1.90/MWh and South Australia $8.40/MWh, while northern regions remained above $36/MWh. Negative pricing was prevalent across the southern states, where South Australia and Victoria each spent over 65% of the day in negative territory.
Total NEM demand peaked in the evening between 18:15 and 19:05, led by New South Wales at 8,097 MW. The generation mix was dominated by coal at 42.2% and wind at 29.3%, while rooftop solar contributed 14.8% of the daily energy.
Renewable sources provided a 54.4% share of total generation, coinciding with a 22.9% reduction in emissions compared to the same day last week. Batteries discharged 12,332 MWh to the grid, though the fleet remained a net consumer with -6,633 MWh net flow.
FCAS costs were relatively subdued with no price spikes recorded across the eight markets. Regulation services accounted for the bulk of the $52,556 total spend, with Raise Regulation in New South Wales peaking at $8.00/MWh.
Today · Forward projections indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, while New South Wales is forecast to reach $98.25/MWh.
Why it matters · The daily average of $15.80/MWh sits 67% below the weekly average, breaking a consistent three-day run of prices above $45/MWh. This sharp decline occurred as the 77.4% renewable peak and high wind contribution suppressed southern prices into negative territory despite coal maintaining a 42% share.
Prices
Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average
| Region | Avg | VWAP | Min | Max | Neg | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | $39 | $43 | -$12 | $76 | 174 | 0 |
| QLD | $36 | $43 | -$11 | $79 | 206 | 0 |
| SA | $8 | $12 | -$16 | $42 | 322 | 0 |
| VIC | -$2 | -$1 | -$32 | $13 | 322 | 0 |
| TAS | $10 | $9 | -$15 | $33 | 246 | 0 |
Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.
Demand
FCAS
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $3,051 | 0 | $8 | 5 Sept, 08:45 |
| LOWERREG | $271 | 0 | $3 | 5 Sept, 17:15 |
| LOWER60SEC | $91 | 0 | $1 | 5 Sept, 13:15 |
| LOWER5MIN | $61 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 16:15 |
| RAISE6SEC | $51 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 17:15 |
| LOWER6SEC | $44 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 13:10 |
| RAISE60SEC | $40 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 06:20 |
| RAISE5MIN | $22 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 06:20 |
| Total | $3,631 | |||
Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $8,673 | 0 | $8 | 5 Sept, 08:45 |
| LOWERREG | $1,476 | 0 | $3 | 5 Sept, 17:15 |
| LOWER60SEC | $237 | 0 | $1 | 5 Sept, 13:15 |
| RAISE6SEC | $105 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 17:15 |
| LOWER6SEC | $82 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 13:10 |
| RAISE60SEC | $82 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 06:20 |
| LOWER5MIN | $69 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 16:15 |
| RAISE5MIN | $19 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 06:20 |
| Total | $10,744 | |||
Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $8,156 | 0 | $8 | 5 Sept, 08:45 |
| LOWERREG | $2,507 | 0 | $3 | 5 Sept, 17:15 |
| LOWER60SEC | $250 | 0 | $1 | 5 Sept, 13:15 |
| RAISE6SEC | $159 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 17:15 |
| RAISE60SEC | $137 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 06:20 |
| RAISE5MIN | $71 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 06:20 |
| LOWER6SEC | $65 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 13:10 |
| LOWER5MIN | $59 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 16:15 |
| Total | $11,404 | |||
Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $3,370 | 0 | $8 | 5 Sept, 08:45 |
| LOWERREG | $3,141 | 0 | $3 | 5 Sept, 17:15 |
| LOWER60SEC | $178 | 0 | $1 | 5 Sept, 13:15 |
| RAISE6SEC | $147 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 17:15 |
| RAISE60SEC | $106 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 06:20 |
| LOWER6SEC | $86 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 13:10 |
| LOWER5MIN | $54 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 16:15 |
| RAISE5MIN | $37 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 06:20 |
| Total | $7,119 | |||
Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $10,282 | 0 | $5 | 5 Sept, 14:20 |
| LOWERREG | $7,104 | 0 | $16 | 5 Sept, 14:45 |
| RAISE6SEC | $823 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 04:05 |
| RAISE60SEC | $822 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 04:05 |
| LOWER60SEC | $14 | 0 | $1 | 5 Sept, 13:15 |
| LOWER6SEC | $7 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 13:10 |
| RAISE5MIN | $6 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 11:25 |
| LOWER5MIN | $0 | 0 | $0 | 5 Sept, 16:15 |
| Total | $19,058 | |||
Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
Battery dispatch
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,146 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $66/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,428 MW at 19:00 as QLD spot hit $67/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 178 MW at 07:30 as VIC spot hit -$5/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 42 MW at 19:30 as SA spot hit $31/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 2,541 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $27/MWh.
Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average
Regional dispatch ranking
| Region | Discharged | Net |
|---|---|---|
#1NSW | 6,134MWh | -1,556 |
#2QLD | 5,394MWh | -762 |
#3VIC | 630MWh | -2,584 |
#4SA | 175MWh | -1,732 |
Generation Mix
- Coal46.3% · 85.0 GWh
- Gas0.6% · 1.0 GWh
- Hydro3.3% · 6.1 GWh
- Wind22.3% · 41.0 GWh
- Solar (utility)7.3% · 13.5 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)16.9% · 31.0 GWh
- Battery3.3% · 6.1 GWh
- Coal56.3% · 101.7 GWh
- Gas1.5% · 2.7 GWh
- Hydro1.8% · 3.2 GWh
- Wind5.8% · 10.5 GWh
- Solar (utility)12.3% · 22.2 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)19.0% · 34.3 GWh
- Battery3.0% · 5.4 GWh
- Other0.3% · 0.5 GWh
- Coal39.2% · 66.1 GWh
- Hydro0.5% · 0.8 GWh
- Wind48.9% · 82.5 GWh
- Solar (utility)2.7% · 4.5 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)8.4% · 14.3 GWh
- Battery0.4% · 0.6 GWh
- Gas4.1% · 1.9 GWh
- Wind75.0% · 34.1 GWh
- Solar (utility)1.3% · 0.6 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)19.2% · 8.7 GWh
- Battery0.4% · 0.2 GWh
- Gas14.8% · 3.1 GWh
- Hydro48.7% · 10.1 GWh
- Wind34.6% · 7.1 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)1.9% · 0.4 GWh
Renewables
- NSW 46.2%
- VIC 71.1%
- QLD 45.0%
- SA 111.1%
- TAS 60.0%
Interconnectors
| Region (proxy) | Net flow | Direction changes | Hours at limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-Q-MNSP1 | +12.2 GWh | 40 | — |
| NSW1-QLD1 | −47.5 GWh | 0 | — |
| VIC1-NSW1 | +50.6 GWh | 0 | — |
| V-SA | +7.9 GWh | 9 | — |
| T-V-MNSP1 | −16.5 GWh | 0 | — |
Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).
Emissions
| NSW | 74.1k tCO₂ | 0.395 tCO₂/MWh |
| QLD | 90.1k tCO₂ | 0.491 tCO₂/MWh |
| SA | 892 tCO₂ | 0.020 tCO₂/MWh |
| VIC | 80.1k tCO₂ | 0.483 tCO₂/MWh |
| TAS | 1.8k tCO₂ | 0.090 tCO₂/MWh |