NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Tuesday 28 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-28

Market Snapshot

South Australia records negative average price amid high renewable penetration

Regional pricing showed a sharp divide between the northern and southern regions. New South Wales and Queensland averaged $67.30/MWh and $66.70/MWh, while South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania all remained below $10.00/MWh. South Australia saw the lowest minimum price of -$100.10/MWh, while Victoria recorded a volatile floor of -$504.60/MWh.

Renewable generation reached an instantaneous peak of 70.9% at 12:30. Wind was the primary renewable contributor at 24.6% of the total mix, followed by combined solar at 16.7%. Coal maintained a 50.1% share of total generation while gas remained low at 1.8%.

Battery storage discharged 15,827 MWh throughout the day, though the fleet remained a net consumer of 4,152 MWh. FCAS costs were concentrated in Tasmania, where the Raise Regulation service peaked at $149.00/MWh. Total emissions fell 14.7% compared to the same day last week.

Today · Forward forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30. New South Wales is expected to peak at $98.25/MWh later in the evening at 20:30.

Why it matters · The daily NEM average of $30.10/MWh is 51.4% below the 7-day average, breaking a two-day trend of rising prices. This low price environment coincided with a 14.7% drop in emissions and over 400 negative intervals in South Australia, despite coal still providing half of the total energy mix.

NSW $67VIC $8QLD $67SA $-2TAS $9
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $35 $70 $105 $140 -$80 -$30 $20 $70 $120 $0 $33 $65 $98 $130 -$80 -$35 $10 $55 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $67 $70 $0 $135 0 0
QLD $67 $70 $0 $119 0 0
SA -$2 $1 -$100 $101 412 0
VIC $8 $10 -$505 $237 398 0
TAS $9 $10 -$13 $245 252 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,556MW
18:00
Trough
6,096MW
12:45
Energy
401.0GWh
QLD
Peak
7,750MW
18:00
Trough
4,534MW
11:05
Energy
293.2GWh
SA
Peak
2,297MW
18:50
Trough
1,298MW
15:45
Energy
82.0GWh
VIC
Peak
7,783MW
18:25
Trough
4,695MW
13:15
Energy
291.1GWh
TAS
Peak
1,354MW
18:05
Trough
942MW
01:05
Energy
54.3GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,3210$2028 July, 16:25
LOWERREG$7450$728 July, 15:20
LOWER60SEC$1350$028 July, 15:30
RAISE6SEC$1100$028 July, 08:05
RAISE60SEC$860$028 July, 06:40
LOWER5MIN$470$028 July, 15:20
LOWER6SEC$370$028 July, 15:25
RAISE5MIN$350$028 July, 07:35
Total$7,517

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,0920$2028 July, 16:25
LOWERREG$2,5300$728 July, 15:20
LOWER60SEC$3210$028 July, 15:30
RAISE6SEC$2170$028 July, 08:05
RAISE60SEC$1480$028 July, 06:40
LOWER5MIN$840$028 July, 15:20
LOWER6SEC$560$028 July, 15:25
RAISE5MIN$320$028 July, 07:35
Total$12,480

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,3380$2028 July, 16:25
LOWERREG$2,5700$728 July, 15:20
LOWER60SEC$2100$028 July, 15:30
RAISE60SEC$1650$028 July, 06:40
RAISE6SEC$1550$028 July, 08:05
RAISE5MIN$590$028 July, 07:35
LOWER5MIN$430$028 July, 15:20
LOWER6SEC$260$028 July, 15:25
Total$12,566

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$2,8330$2028 July, 16:25
LOWERREG$2,6350$728 July, 15:20
RAISE6SEC$8690$028 July, 20:55
RAISE60SEC$7680$028 July, 20:55
RAISE5MIN$2550$028 July, 22:45
LOWER60SEC$1860$028 July, 15:30
LOWER6SEC$600$028 July, 15:25
LOWER5MIN$450$028 July, 15:20
Total$7,652

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$15,7990$5828 July, 12:55
RAISEREG$7,5910$14928 July, 17:30
RAISE6SEC$2,0230$10028 July, 07:55
RAISE60SEC$1,0260$328 July, 09:15
LOWER6SEC$1520$328 July, 06:40
LOWER60SEC$990$128 July, 07:10
RAISE5MIN$650$128 July, 22:50
LOWER5MIN$20$028 July, 15:20
Total$26,756

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,217 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $89/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,036 MW at 07:30 as QLD spot hit $111/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 525 MW at 08:00 as VIC spot hit $86/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 253 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $75/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,590 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $46/MWh.

Discharged
6,611MWh
peak 1,217 MW · 18:30
Charged
7,928MWh
peak 1,331 MW
Net
-1,316MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
83%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,964MWh
peak 1,036 MW · 07:30
Charged
7,135MWh
peak 1,424 MW
Net
-1,171MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
84%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,617MWh
peak 525 MW · 08:00
Charged
3,361MWh
peak 483 MW
Net
-745MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
78%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
635MWh
peak 253 MW · 19:00
Charged
1,555MWh
peak 198 MW
Net
-920MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
41%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
15,827MWh
peak 2,590 MW · 19:00
Charged
19,979MWh
peak 2,948 MW
Net
-4,152MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
79%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,611MWh
-1,316
#2QLD
5,964MWh
-1,171
#3VIC
2,617MWh
-745
#4SA
635MWh
-920

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 58.8%
  • Coal58.8% · 129.2 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro4.5% · 10.0 GWh
  • Wind11.8% · 26.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.0% · 21.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.4% · 25.0 GWh
  • Battery3.0% · 6.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 63.2%
  • Coal63.2% · 121.9 GWh
  • Gas3.3% · 6.3 GWh
  • Hydro2.2% · 4.3 GWh
  • Wind5.3% · 10.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.5% · 20.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.3% · 23.8 GWh
  • Battery3.1% · 6.0 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 46.2%
  • Coal46.2% · 91.1 GWh
  • Hydro0.5% · 1.0 GWh
  • Wind43.2% · 85.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.4% · 4.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)6.4% · 12.6 GWh
  • Battery1.3% · 2.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 80.7%
  • Gas4.9% · 2.2 GWh
  • Wind80.7% · 35.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.7% · 1.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.2% · 4.5 GWh
  • Battery1.4% · 0.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 51.7%
  • Gas10.2% · 3.1 GWh
  • Hydro51.7% · 15.4 GWh
  • Wind36.8% · 11.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.3% · 0.4 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.3 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.8 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.6 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.4 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.0 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
35.4%
VIC · Daily renewable share
61.1%
QLD · Daily renewable share
35.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
86.6%
TAS · Daily renewable share
84.6%
Peak instantaneous
70.9%
at 12:30
Daily NEM-wide share
46.3%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    35.4%
  • VIC
    61.1%
  • QLD
    35.5%
  • SA
    86.6%
  • TAS
    84.6%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +9.8 GWh 37 —
NSW1-QLD1 −43.9 GWh 8 —
VIC1-NSW1 +52.3 GWh 0 —
V-SA −10.9 GWh 16 —
T-V-MNSP1 −2.8 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
335.2k tCO₂
▼ 14.7% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 113.0k tCO₂ 0.505 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 110.1k tCO₂ 0.560 tCO₂/MWh
SA 978 tCO₂ 0.022 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 109.3k tCO₂ 0.557 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.062 tCO₂/MWh