NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Monday 27 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-27

Market Snapshot

South Australia records 398 negative price intervals amid regional divergence

Regional price outcomes diverged sharply with New South Wales and Queensland averaging 102.30 and 87.90 dollars per megawatt hour respectively. In contrast, South Australia saw an average price of 24.70 dollars per megawatt hour, supported by 398 negative price intervals. Victoria and Tasmania also recorded low averages of 28.10 and 35.60 dollars per megawatt hour with frequent negative pricing.

Aggregate demand peaked in the evening with New South Wales reaching 10,842 megawatts at 18:15. Queensland and Victoria also saw their highest consumption levels at approximately the same time, hitting 7,814 and 8,178 megawatts. Tasmania was the only region to peak during the morning at 08:05 with 1,351 megawatts.

Coal remained the primary generation source at 56.1 percent of the total mix while wind contributed 15.1 percent. Combined solar sources provided 15.5 percent of energy, helping renewables achieve a daily average share of 37.6 percent. Batteries dispatched 15,726 megawatt hours into the grid but remained net consumers for the day.

Total emissions rose by 3.5 percent compared to the same day last week, reaching 382,190 tonnes of carbon dioxide. FCAS costs were highest in the regulation services, with Tasmania and South Australia recording the peak prices across most categories.

Today · Forecasts indicate a Queensland peak price of 319.04 dollars per megawatt hour at 19:30 and a South Australian peak of 145.00 dollars.

Why it matters · The daily average price of 67.90 dollars per megawatt hour sits 9.1 percent above the weekly mean, breaking a three-day downward trend. This increase occurred despite a high renewable peak of 63.1 percent and significant negative pricing in southern regions, indicating extreme price volatility between the northern and southern states.

NSW $102VIC $28QLD $88SA $25TAS $36
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $58 $115 $173 $230 -$20 $40 $100 $160 $220 $0 $55 $110 $165 $220 -$30 $28 $85 $143 $200 -$10 $38 $85 $133 $180 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $102 $107 $30 $312 0 0
QLD $88 $93 $25 $294 0 0
SA $25 $26 -$164 $259 398 0
VIC $28 $29 -$278 $247 176 0
TAS $36 $39 -$10 $246 146 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,842MW
18:15
Trough
6,983MW
13:05
Energy
420.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,814MW
18:15
Trough
4,368MW
11:20
Energy
292.7GWh
SA
Peak
2,151MW
19:15
Trough
971MW
15:15
Energy
74.2GWh
VIC
Peak
8,178MW
18:10
Trough
4,757MW
04:05
Energy
303.8GWh
TAS
Peak
1,351MW
08:05
Trough
851MW
00:25
Energy
52.5GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,7450$1227 July, 23:05
LOWERREG$6220$727 July, 15:15
RAISE60SEC$1920$027 July, 08:30
RAISE6SEC$1670$027 July, 19:00
RAISE5MIN$840$027 July, 07:40
LOWER60SEC$810$027 July, 15:00
LOWER5MIN$360$027 July, 15:50
LOWER6SEC$360$027 July, 15:40
Total$5,963

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,6090$1227 July, 23:05
LOWERREG$1,9980$727 July, 15:15
RAISE6SEC$4140$027 July, 19:00
RAISE60SEC$3930$027 July, 08:45
LOWER60SEC$2210$027 July, 15:00
RAISE5MIN$1030$027 July, 08:40
LOWER6SEC$640$027 July, 15:40
LOWER5MIN$500$027 July, 15:50
Total$9,852

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$11,9970$1227 July, 23:05
LOWERREG$2,6520$727 July, 15:15
RAISE60SEC$4550$027 July, 08:30
RAISE6SEC$3830$027 July, 19:00
RAISE5MIN$1500$027 July, 07:40
LOWER60SEC$920$027 July, 15:00
LOWER5MIN$280$027 July, 15:50
LOWER6SEC$260$027 July, 15:40
Total$15,783

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWER60SEC$11,8800$5027 July, 16:25
RAISEREG$4,2800$1227 July, 23:05
LOWERREG$2,5710$827 July, 15:15
LOWER6SEC$2,2410$527 July, 15:20
LOWER5MIN$7290$227 July, 16:30
RAISE6SEC$4330$027 July, 06:05
RAISE60SEC$3580$127 July, 17:30
RAISE5MIN$1890$027 July, 06:05
Total$22,681

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,6780$3027 July, 17:30
LOWERREG$5,1620$1227 July, 22:30
RAISE6SEC$3190$327 July, 21:45
RAISE60SEC$2020$027 July, 19:00
LOWER60SEC$230$127 July, 21:55
LOWER6SEC$120$027 July, 15:40
RAISE5MIN$20$027 July, 21:45
LOWER5MIN$10$027 July, 15:50
Total$14,399

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,252 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $190/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,611 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $163/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 450 MW at 19:30 as VIC spot hit $41/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 534 MW at 18:30 as SA spot hit $74/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,375 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $37/MWh.

Discharged
6,319MWh
peak 1,252 MW · 18:00
Charged
8,253MWh
peak 1,585 MW
Net
-1,934MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,839MWh
peak 1,611 MW · 18:00
Charged
7,452MWh
peak 1,221 MW
Net
-1,613MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
78%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,547MWh
peak 450 MW · 19:30
Charged
4,973MWh
peak 709 MW
Net
-2,426MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
51%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,021MWh
peak 534 MW · 18:30
Charged
2,150MWh
peak 422 MW
Net
-1,129MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
47%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
15,726MWh
peak 3,375 MW · 18:30
Charged
22,828MWh
peak 3,596 MW
Net
-7,102MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
69%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100$0$100$200$30023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,319MWh
-1,934
#2QLD
5,839MWh
-1,613
#3VIC
2,547MWh
-2,426
#4SA
1,021MWh
-1,129

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 71.1%
  • Coal71.1% · 154.0 GWh
  • Gas1.1% · 2.4 GWh
  • Hydro6.2% · 13.4 GWh
  • Wind1.8% · 3.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)6.9% · 14.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.0% · 21.8 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 6.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.5%
  • Coal60.5% · 124.2 GWh
  • Gas6.0% · 12.4 GWh
  • Hydro2.7% · 5.6 GWh
  • Wind5.4% · 11.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.5% · 21.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.0% · 24.6 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 5.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 59.5%
  • Coal59.5% · 106.1 GWh
  • Gas0.1% · 0.1 GWh
  • Hydro2.3% · 4.1 GWh
  • Wind28.8% · 51.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.9% · 3.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)6.0% · 10.7 GWh
  • Battery1.4% · 2.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 63.7%
  • Gas16.0% · 7.4 GWh
  • Wind63.7% · 29.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.0% · 1.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.2% · 6.6 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 1.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 71.0%
  • Gas8.0% · 3.0 GWh
  • Hydro71.0% · 27.2 GWh
  • Wind19.5% · 7.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.6% · 0.6 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.3 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.4 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.2 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.8 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.9 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
22.4%
VIC · Daily renewable share
41.0%
QLD · Daily renewable share
37.9%
SA · Daily renewable share
84.7%
TAS · Daily renewable share
113.6%
Peak instantaneous
63.1%
at 11:50
Daily NEM-wide share
37.6%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    22.4%
  • VIC
    41.0%
  • QLD
    37.9%
  • SA
    84.7%
  • TAS
    113.6%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +34.0 GWh 0
NSW1-QLD1 −56.9 GWh 0
VIC1-NSW1 +11.7 GWh 6
V-SA +7.3 GWh 10
T-V-MNSP1 +9.5 GWh 0

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
382.2k tCO₂
▲ 3.5% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 135.6k tCO₂ 0.616 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 115.0k tCO₂ 0.550 tCO₂/MWh
SA 3.4k tCO₂ 0.073 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 126.3k tCO₂ 0.712 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.049 tCO₂/MWh