NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Monday 27 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-27

Market Snapshot

Regional price divergence intensifies as South Australia records 398 negative intervals

Average prices ranged from 24.70 dollars per megawatt hour in South Australia to 102.30 dollars in New South Wales. South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania all experienced negative price intervals, with South Australia reaching a minimum of -164.30 dollars. In contrast, New South Wales and Queensland saw no negative intervals and recorded maximum prices of 311.90 and 294.20 dollars respectively.

Renewable generation achieved an instantaneous peak of 63.1 percent at 11:50, with wind contributing 15.1 percent and rooftop solar 9.4 percent. Fossil fuel generation remained dominant for the day, with coal and gas together accounting for 59.8 percent of the total fuel mix. Hydroelectric generation provided a further 7.3 percent of the daily energy requirements.

Battery storage systems discharged 15,721 megawatt hours into the grid, though the sector remained a net consumer with -7,100 megawatt hours. Demand peaks were concentrated between 18:10 and 18:15 across the mainland, led by New South Wales at 10,842 megawatts. Tasmania recorded its daily peak earlier at 08:05 with 1,351 megawatts.

Total emissions reached 382,190 tonnes of carbon dioxide, representing a 3.5 percent increase compared to the same day last week. Frequency Control Ancillary Services costs were highest for the Raise Regulation service in Tasmania at 36,310 dollars. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Queensland into New South Wales via the main link.

Today · Forward projections indicate a Queensland peak price of 319.04 dollars at 19:30, while other regions are forecast to remain below 150 dollars.

Why it matters · The daily average of 67.90 dollars sits 9.1 percent above the weekly average, breaking a three-day trend of declining prices. This increase occurred despite 720 combined negative intervals in the southern regions, as high northern prices and a 3.5 percent rise in emissions offset the impact of the 63.1 percent renewable peak.

NSW $102VIC $28QLD $88SA $25TAS $36
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $58 $115 $173 $230 -$20 $40 $100 $160 $220 $0 $55 $110 $165 $220 -$30 $28 $85 $143 $200 -$10 $38 $85 $133 $180 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $102 $107 $30 $312 0 0
QLD $88 $93 $25 $294 0 0
SA $25 $26 -$164 $259 398 0
VIC $28 $29 -$278 $247 176 0
TAS $36 $39 -$10 $246 146 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,842MW
18:15
Trough
6,983MW
13:05
Energy
420.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,814MW
18:15
Trough
4,368MW
11:20
Energy
292.7GWh
SA
Peak
2,151MW
19:15
Trough
971MW
15:15
Energy
74.2GWh
VIC
Peak
8,178MW
18:10
Trough
4,757MW
04:05
Energy
303.8GWh
TAS
Peak
1,351MW
08:05
Trough
851MW
00:25
Energy
52.5GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,7450$1227 July, 23:05
LOWERREG$6220$727 July, 15:15
RAISE60SEC$1920$027 July, 08:30
RAISE6SEC$1670$027 July, 19:00
RAISE5MIN$840$027 July, 07:40
LOWER60SEC$810$027 July, 15:00
LOWER5MIN$360$027 July, 15:50
LOWER6SEC$360$027 July, 15:40
Total$5,963

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,6090$1227 July, 23:05
LOWERREG$1,9980$727 July, 15:15
RAISE6SEC$4140$027 July, 19:00
RAISE60SEC$3930$027 July, 08:45
LOWER60SEC$2210$027 July, 15:00
RAISE5MIN$1030$027 July, 08:40
LOWER6SEC$640$027 July, 15:40
LOWER5MIN$500$027 July, 15:50
Total$9,852

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$11,9970$1227 July, 23:05
LOWERREG$2,6520$727 July, 15:15
RAISE60SEC$4550$027 July, 08:30
RAISE6SEC$3830$027 July, 19:00
RAISE5MIN$1500$027 July, 07:40
LOWER60SEC$920$027 July, 15:00
LOWER5MIN$280$027 July, 15:50
LOWER6SEC$260$027 July, 15:40
Total$15,783

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWER60SEC$11,8800$5027 July, 16:25
RAISEREG$4,2800$1227 July, 23:05
LOWERREG$2,5710$827 July, 15:15
LOWER6SEC$2,2410$527 July, 15:20
LOWER5MIN$7290$227 July, 16:30
RAISE6SEC$4330$027 July, 06:05
RAISE60SEC$3580$127 July, 17:30
RAISE5MIN$1890$027 July, 06:05
Total$22,681

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,6780$3027 July, 17:30
LOWERREG$5,1620$1227 July, 22:30
RAISE6SEC$3190$327 July, 21:45
RAISE60SEC$2020$027 July, 19:00
LOWER60SEC$230$127 July, 21:55
LOWER6SEC$120$027 July, 15:40
RAISE5MIN$20$027 July, 21:45
LOWER5MIN$10$027 July, 15:50
Total$14,399

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,252 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $190/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,611 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $163/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 450 MW at 19:30 as VIC spot hit $41/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 534 MW at 18:30 as SA spot hit $74/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,375 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $37/MWh.

Discharged
6,319MWh
peak 1,252 MW · 18:00
Charged
8,249MWh
peak 1,585 MW
Net
-1,930MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,839MWh
peak 1,611 MW · 18:00
Charged
7,452MWh
peak 1,221 MW
Net
-1,613MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
78%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,543MWh
peak 450 MW · 19:30
Charged
4,973MWh
peak 709 MW
Net
-2,430MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
51%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,020MWh
peak 534 MW · 18:30
Charged
2,148MWh
peak 422 MW
Net
-1,128MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
47%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
15,721MWh
peak 3,375 MW · 18:30
Charged
22,821MWh
peak 3,596 MW
Net
-7,100MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
69%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100$0$100$200$30023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,319MWh
-1,930
#2QLD
5,839MWh
-1,613
#3VIC
2,543MWh
-2,430
#4SA
1,020MWh
-1,128

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 71.1%
  • Coal71.1% · 154.0 GWh
  • Gas1.1% · 2.4 GWh
  • Hydro6.2% · 13.4 GWh
  • Wind1.8% · 3.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)6.9% · 14.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.0% · 21.8 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 6.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.5%
  • Coal60.5% · 124.2 GWh
  • Gas6.0% · 12.4 GWh
  • Hydro2.7% · 5.6 GWh
  • Wind5.4% · 11.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.5% · 21.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.0% · 24.6 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 5.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 59.5%
  • Coal59.5% · 106.1 GWh
  • Gas0.1% · 0.1 GWh
  • Hydro2.3% · 4.1 GWh
  • Wind28.8% · 51.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.9% · 3.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)6.0% · 10.7 GWh
  • Battery1.4% · 2.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 63.7%
  • Gas16.0% · 7.4 GWh
  • Wind63.7% · 29.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.0% · 1.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.2% · 6.6 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 1.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 71.0%
  • Gas8.0% · 3.0 GWh
  • Hydro71.0% · 27.2 GWh
  • Wind19.5% · 7.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.6% · 0.6 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.3 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.4 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.2 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.8 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.9 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
22.4%
VIC · Daily renewable share
41.0%
QLD · Daily renewable share
37.9%
SA · Daily renewable share
84.7%
TAS · Daily renewable share
113.6%
Peak instantaneous
63.1%
at 11:50
Daily NEM-wide share
37.6%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    22.4%
  • VIC
    41.0%
  • QLD
    37.9%
  • SA
    84.7%
  • TAS
    113.6%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +34.0 GWh 0
NSW1-QLD1 −56.9 GWh 0
VIC1-NSW1 +11.7 GWh 6
V-SA +7.3 GWh 10
T-V-MNSP1 +9.5 GWh 0

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
382.2k tCO₂
▲ 3.5% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 135.6k tCO₂ 0.616 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 115.0k tCO₂ 0.550 tCO₂/MWh
SA 3.4k tCO₂ 0.073 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 126.3k tCO₂ 0.712 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.049 tCO₂/MWh