NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 26 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-26

Market Snapshot

Queensland price volatility contrasts with steady demand peaks across the NEM

Regional pricing showed significant divergence as South Australia and New South Wales averaged $103.70/MWh and $95.90/MWh respectively. In contrast, Queensland, Victoria, and Tasmania remained lower, with Victoria recording the minimum regional average of $65.30/MWh despite no negative price intervals.

Aggregate demand was driven by evening peaks, led by New South Wales at 10,531 MW and Queensland at 7,634 MW. Total system energy requirements were met primarily by black and brown coal, while combined solar and wind assets provided 25.9% of the mix.

Batteries discharged 17,312 MWh to the grid, though the fleet remained a net consumer with a total balance of -666 MWh. FCAS costs were dominated by the Raise Regulation service in New South Wales, which totaled $34,870 for the day.

Total emissions reached 375,226 tonnes of CO2, representing a 7.6% increase compared to the same day last week. Interconnector flows saw significant movement from Victoria into South Australia and from New South Wales into Queensland.

Today · Forecasts indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, while other regions expect maximums between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $76.10/MWh sits 28.4% above the weekly mean, breaking a four-day trend of declining prices. This shift occurred as high emissions growth coincided with Queensland's frequent negative intervals, suggesting localized surplus during daylight hours despite rising aggregate costs.

NSW $96VIC $65QLD $67SA $104TAS $68
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $38 $75 $113 $150 $0 $35 $70 $105 $140 -$10 $35 $80 $125 $170 $0 $35 $70 $105 $140 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $96 $99 $51 $144 0 0
QLD $67 $76 -$5 $175 98 0
SA $104 $107 $52 $144 0 0
VIC $65 $69 $2 $132 0 0
TAS $68 $69 $0 $119 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,531MW
19:00
Trough
6,146MW
12:45
Energy
388.8GWh
QLD
Peak
7,634MW
18:35
Trough
3,616MW
12:10
Energy
273.4GWh
SA
Peak
1,852MW
19:00
Trough
653MW
14:40
Energy
63.7GWh
VIC
Peak
7,237MW
18:25
Trough
4,625MW
04:55
Energy
267.3GWh
TAS
Peak
1,283MW
18:00
Trough
954MW
00:55
Energy
52.7GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,9290$1326 July, 21:00
LOWERREG$6130$426 July, 04:35
RAISE6SEC$1880$026 July, 17:45
RAISE60SEC$1350$026 July, 17:40
LOWER60SEC$1080$026 July, 13:50
LOWER5MIN$970$026 July, 14:50
RAISE5MIN$560$026 July, 08:25
LOWER6SEC$390$026 July, 13:55
Total$6,166

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,0950$1326 July, 21:00
LOWERREG$1,8050$426 July, 04:35
RAISE6SEC$3760$026 July, 17:45
RAISE60SEC$2090$026 July, 17:40
LOWER60SEC$1780$026 July, 13:50
LOWER5MIN$590$026 July, 14:50
RAISE5MIN$560$026 July, 08:25
LOWER6SEC$450$026 July, 13:55
Total$8,822

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,0300$1326 July, 21:00
LOWERREG$2,2980$426 July, 04:35
RAISE60SEC$2490$026 July, 17:40
RAISE6SEC$2480$026 July, 17:45
LOWER60SEC$1440$026 July, 13:50
RAISE5MIN$810$026 July, 08:25
LOWER5MIN$620$026 July, 14:50
LOWER6SEC$320$026 July, 13:55
Total$11,144

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,1240$1326 July, 21:00
LOWERREG$1,9390$426 July, 04:35
RAISE6SEC$3330$026 July, 17:45
RAISE60SEC$2420$026 July, 17:40
LOWER60SEC$2210$026 July, 13:50
LOWER5MIN$1490$026 July, 14:50
LOWER6SEC$850$026 July, 13:55
RAISE5MIN$810$026 July, 08:25
Total$10,173

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,6920$526 July, 05:05
LOWERREG$2,0480$326 July, 18:45
LOWER60SEC$30$026 July, 13:50
RAISE6SEC$00$026 July, 17:45
RAISE60SEC$00$026 July, 17:40
RAISE5MIN$00$026 July, 08:25
LOWER6SEC$00$026 July, 13:55
LOWER5MIN$00$026 July, 14:50
Total$10,743

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,398 MW at 19:30 as NSW spot hit $130/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,464 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $119/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 764 MW at 19:00 as VIC spot hit $114/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 347 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $116/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,722 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $103/MWh.

Discharged
7,429MWh
peak 1,398 MW · 19:30
Charged
7,073MWh
peak 1,300 MW
Net
+357MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
105%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,350MWh
peak 1,464 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,267MWh
peak 1,383 MW
Net
-917MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
85%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,921MWh
peak 764 MW · 19:00
Charged
3,611MWh
peak 588 MW
Net
-689MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
81%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,611MWh
peak 347 MW · 19:00
Charged
1,028MWh
peak 303 MW
Net
+584MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
157%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
17,312MWh
peak 3,722 MW · 19:00
Charged
17,978MWh
peak 3,138 MW
Net
-666MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
96%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$150$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
7,429MWh
+357
#2QLD
5,350MWh
-917
#3VIC
2,921MWh
-689
#4SA
1,611MWh
+584

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 68.0%
  • Coal68.0% · 141.3 GWh
  • Gas0.6% · 1.2 GWh
  • Hydro3.7% · 7.7 GWh
  • Wind3.9% · 8.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.9% · 18.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.7% · 22.2 GWh
  • Battery3.6% · 7.4 GWh
  • Other0.6% · 1.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.6%
  • Coal60.6% · 118.5 GWh
  • Gas4.2% · 8.2 GWh
  • Hydro2.5% · 4.8 GWh
  • Wind3.7% · 7.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.3% · 24.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.0% · 27.3 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 69.2%
  • Coal69.2% · 112.0 GWh
  • Gas1.1% · 1.8 GWh
  • Hydro5.4% · 8.7 GWh
  • Wind13.9% · 22.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.9% · 4.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)5.8% · 9.3 GWh
  • Battery1.8% · 2.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 52.4%
  • Gas52.4% · 15.0 GWh
  • Wind13.4% · 3.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.0% · 2.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)19.6% · 5.6 GWh
  • Battery5.6% · 1.6 GWh
  • Other2.0% · 0.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 69.5%
  • Gas8.2% · 3.4 GWh
  • Hydro69.5% · 28.6 GWh
  • Wind20.8% · 8.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.4% · 0.6 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.9 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.7 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.4 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.1 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
27.1%
VIC · Daily renewable share
31.6%
QLD · Daily renewable share
39.1%
SA · Daily renewable share
33.6%
TAS · Daily renewable share
120.8%
Peak instantaneous
62.7%
at 12:50
Daily NEM-wide share
34.9%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    27.1%
  • VIC
    31.6%
  • QLD
    39.1%
  • SA
    33.6%
  • TAS
    120.8%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +32.6 GWh 6
NSW1-QLD1 −44.1 GWh 6
VIC1-NSW1 +19.6 GWh 10
V-SA −22.4 GWh 6
T-V-MNSP1 +20.1 GWh 0

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
375.2k tCO₂
▲ 7.6% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 123.8k tCO₂ 0.586 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 108.0k tCO₂ 0.545 tCO₂/MWh
SA 7.4k tCO₂ 0.253 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 134.0k tCO₂ 0.830 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 2.0k tCO₂ 0.050 tCO₂/MWh