NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Saturday 25 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-25

Market Snapshot

Regional price divergence as Queensland records one hundred forty eight negative intervals

Average prices varied significantly across the market, ranging from $34.00/MWh in Victoria to $64.00/MWh in South Australia. Queensland experienced the most frequent negative pricing with 148 intervals, whereas New South Wales saw the fewest at 46 intervals. Despite these negative periods, South Australia recorded a daily maximum price of $119.70/MWh during the evening peak.

Renewables contributed 43.9% of total energy for the day, supported by a combined solar share of 17.2% and wind at 19.4%. Hydro generation provided 6.0% of the mix, while gas remained low at 2.6%. Batteries discharged 16,305 MWh to the grid, though the sector remained a net consumer with a total of -1,364 MWh.

Total system emissions were 333,813 tonnes of CO2, reflecting the high renewable penetration and reduced reliance on gas. FCAS costs were modest, with the highest single service cost being $23,570 for Raise Regulation in New South Wales. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into New South Wales and from Tasmania into Victoria to balance regional requirements.

Today · Forward projections indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with South Australia forecast to reach $145.00/MWh at 18:30.

Why it matters · The daily average of $40.20/MWh sits 38.4% below the 7-day average, extending a four-day downward trend in market prices. This softening occurs as high instantaneous renewable penetration and significant battery activity coincide with a sharp 10.6% reduction in weekly emissions.

NSW $57VIC $34QLD $43SA $64TAS $35
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$10 $23 $55 $88 $120 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $57 $59 -$7 $90 46 0
QLD $43 $49 -$7 $85 148 0
SA $64 $68 -$12 $120 54 0
VIC $34 $35 -$7 $87 76 0
TAS $35 $36 -$5 $78 44 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,156MW
18:00
Trough
5,934MW
13:10
Energy
390.4GWh
QLD
Peak
7,252MW
18:00
Trough
3,442MW
12:55
Energy
268.3GWh
SA
Peak
1,878MW
18:30
Trough
941MW
13:45
Energy
69.5GWh
VIC
Peak
7,110MW
18:00
Trough
4,662MW
04:20
Energy
274.3GWh
TAS
Peak
1,210MW
18:25
Trough
897MW
04:10
Energy
50.3GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,7990$1025 July, 17:00
LOWERREG$9600$725 July, 14:35
LOWER60SEC$1840$125 July, 15:40
LOWER5MIN$1540$025 July, 15:00
RAISE6SEC$1230$025 July, 18:40
RAISE60SEC$850$025 July, 09:25
LOWER6SEC$800$025 July, 14:20
RAISE5MIN$290$025 July, 22:20
Total$5,414

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,2530$1025 July, 17:00
LOWERREG$2,6400$725 July, 14:35
LOWER60SEC$4050$125 July, 15:40
RAISE6SEC$1890$025 July, 18:40
LOWER5MIN$1640$025 July, 15:00
LOWER6SEC$1120$025 July, 14:20
RAISE60SEC$990$025 July, 09:25
RAISE5MIN$180$025 July, 22:20
Total$8,879

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,9080$1025 July, 17:00
LOWERREG$3,5110$725 July, 14:35
LOWER60SEC$4790$125 July, 15:40
LOWER5MIN$1520$025 July, 15:00
RAISE6SEC$1300$025 July, 18:40
LOWER6SEC$1220$025 July, 14:20
RAISE60SEC$1220$025 July, 09:25
RAISE5MIN$360$025 July, 22:20
Total$9,460

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$2,8480$1025 July, 17:00
LOWERREG$2,4910$725 July, 14:35
LOWER60SEC$2930$125 July, 15:40
RAISE6SEC$2160$025 July, 18:40
LOWER6SEC$1590$025 July, 14:20
LOWER5MIN$1550$025 July, 15:00
RAISE60SEC$1510$025 July, 09:25
RAISE5MIN$450$025 July, 22:20
Total$6,358

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,7610$525 July, 05:10
LOWERREG$2,7000$1125 July, 15:35
RAISE6SEC$2540$325 July, 15:40
RAISE60SEC$2360$325 July, 15:40
LOWER5MIN$570$025 July, 15:00
LOWER60SEC$450$025 July, 12:15
LOWER6SEC$310$025 July, 14:15
RAISE5MIN$70$025 July, 13:50
Total$10,091

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,364 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $72/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,191 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $68/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 746 MW at 20:00 as VIC spot hit $72/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 196 MW at 08:30 as SA spot hit $57/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,226 MW at 18:00 as TAS spot hit $56/MWh.

Discharged
6,773MWh
peak 1,364 MW · 18:00
Charged
6,977MWh
peak 1,651 MW
Net
-204MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
97%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,684MWh
peak 1,191 MW · 18:00
Charged
5,628MWh
peak 1,256 MW
Net
+56MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
101%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,135MWh
peak 746 MW · 20:00
Charged
2,865MWh
peak 477 MW
Net
+270MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
109%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
714MWh
peak 196 MW · 08:30
Charged
2,201MWh
peak 464 MW
Net
-1,487MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
32%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
16,305MWh
peak 3,226 MW · 18:00
Charged
17,670MWh
peak 3,438 MW
Net
-1,364MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
92%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,773MWh
-204
#2QLD
5,684MWh
+56
#3VIC
3,135MWh
+270
#4SA
714MWh
-1,487

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 59.4%
  • Coal59.4% · 128.3 GWh
  • Gas0.6% · 1.3 GWh
  • Hydro3.8% · 8.1 GWh
  • Wind12.0% · 26.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.0% · 19.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.7% · 25.2 GWh
  • Battery3.1% · 6.8 GWh
  • Other0.4% · 0.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.4%
  • Coal60.4% · 116.9 GWh
  • Gas1.9% · 3.6 GWh
  • Hydro2.4% · 4.6 GWh
  • Wind6.2% · 11.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.5% · 20.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.0% · 29.0 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 5.7 GWh
  • Other0.7% · 1.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 55.1%
  • Coal55.1% · 93.2 GWh
  • Hydro0.9% · 1.5 GWh
  • Wind35.9% · 60.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.6% · 2.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.5% · 7.6 GWh
  • Battery1.9% · 3.1 GWh
  • Other0.2% · 0.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 51.3%
  • Gas26.3% · 8.7 GWh
  • Wind51.3% · 17.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.9% · 1.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.4% · 5.1 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 0.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 63.7%
  • Gas8.0% · 3.1 GWh
  • Hydro63.7% · 24.4 GWh
  • Wind26.8% · 10.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.5% · 0.6 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.5 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.5 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.0 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.1 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
35.5%
VIC · Daily renewable share
47.9%
QLD · Daily renewable share
41.2%
SA · Daily renewable share
56.5%
TAS · Daily renewable share
114.4%
Peak instantaneous
70.0%
at 12:50
Daily NEM-wide share
43.9%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    35.5%
  • VIC
    47.9%
  • QLD
    41.2%
  • SA
    56.5%
  • TAS
    114.4%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +34.2 GWh 0 —
NSW1-QLD1 −43.1 GWh 8 —
VIC1-NSW1 +18.6 GWh 16 —
V-SA −20.2 GWh 4 —
T-V-MNSP1 +16.5 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
333.8k tCO₂
▼ 10.6% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 112.2k tCO₂ 0.512 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 104.3k tCO₂ 0.533 tCO₂/MWh
SA 3.9k tCO₂ 0.117 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 111.6k tCO₂ 0.663 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.049 tCO₂/MWh