NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Wednesday 29 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-29

Market Snapshot

South Australian prices diverge as NEM renewable share reaches 45 percent

Regional price spreads were pronounced, with Tasmania and Victoria averaging below $55.00/MWh while South Australia reached a daily maximum of $845.00/MWh. Negative price intervals were frequent across the mainland, led by Queensland with 112 periods and Victoria with 110 periods during the trading day.

Demand peaked in the evening for most regions, with New South Wales reaching 10,954 MW at 19:05 and Victoria hitting 8,701 MW at 18:30. Total energy consumption across the NEM was led by New South Wales at 408.1 GWh, followed by Victoria at 322.9 GWh.

Renewable generation peaked instantaneously at 71.0% at 13:15, while batteries discharged 13,940 MWh to support the evening peaks. Coal remained the primary fuel source at 48.4%, while gas and hydro contributed 4.6% and 7.5% of the total generation respectively.

FCAS costs remained relatively low with no major price spikes recorded, though Raise Regulation in Tasmania reached a peak of $28.00/MWh. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Queensland into New South Wales and from Tasmania into Victoria to balance regional demand.

Today · Predispatch forecasts indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, while other regions expect maximums below $150.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $59.10/MWh sits above the 7-day average of $53.54/MWh, breaking a two-day trend of declining prices. This price lift occurred despite a 7.4% drop in emissions and a high 71.0% instantaneous renewable peak, driven by extreme price divergence in South Australia.

NSW $72VIC $54QLD $61SA $144TAS $50
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $28 $65 $103 $140 -$10 $28 $65 $103 $140 -$10 $25 $60 $95 $130 -$20 $63 $145 $228 $310 -$10 $25 $60 $95 $130 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $72 $78 -$8 $148 40 0
QLD $61 $68 -$7 $121 112 0
SA $144 $154 -$20 $845 66 0
VIC $54 $57 -$1 $141 110 0
TAS $50 $52 -$1 $126 34 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,954MW
19:05
Trough
6,217MW
13:15
Energy
408.1GWh
QLD
Peak
7,568MW
18:20
Trough
4,104MW
13:15
Energy
284.8GWh
SA
Peak
2,162MW
19:15
Trough
952MW
13:45
Energy
74.5GWh
VIC
Peak
8,701MW
18:30
Trough
4,848MW
04:10
Energy
322.9GWh
TAS
Peak
1,367MW
07:55
Trough
983MW
04:45
Energy
55.0GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,9870$1729 July, 16:15
LOWERREG$7050$1429 July, 15:15
LOWER60SEC$1290$029 July, 13:15
RAISE6SEC$900$029 July, 09:35
LOWER5MIN$870$029 July, 15:15
RAISE60SEC$650$029 July, 09:35
LOWER6SEC$420$029 July, 13:10
RAISE5MIN$250$029 July, 06:45
Total$5,130

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,3780$1729 July, 16:15
LOWERREG$3,3880$1429 July, 15:15
LOWER60SEC$3970$029 July, 13:15
RAISE6SEC$2240$029 July, 09:35
LOWER5MIN$1780$029 July, 15:15
LOWER6SEC$1250$029 July, 13:10
RAISE60SEC$1220$029 July, 09:35
RAISE5MIN$300$029 July, 06:45
Total$9,840

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,3690$1729 July, 16:15
LOWERREG$3,8640$1429 July, 15:15
LOWER60SEC$5260$029 July, 13:15
LOWER5MIN$2280$029 July, 15:15
RAISE6SEC$1820$029 July, 09:35
RAISE60SEC$1760$029 July, 09:35
LOWER6SEC$1500$029 July, 13:10
RAISE5MIN$530$029 July, 06:45
Total$13,548

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,0970$1729 July, 16:15
LOWERREG$1,9410$1429 July, 15:15
RAISE6SEC$1,9270$229 July, 07:55
RAISE60SEC$1,7360$129 July, 04:05
RAISE5MIN$1,0600$529 July, 07:05
LOWER60SEC$1680$029 July, 16:00
LOWER6SEC$1300$029 July, 14:20
LOWER5MIN$1230$029 July, 15:15
Total$11,182

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,3170$2829 July, 18:10
LOWERREG$2,7810$1029 July, 05:25
RAISE60SEC$1860$329 July, 05:45
RAISE6SEC$1440$029 July, 04:05
LOWER5MIN$490$029 July, 16:00
LOWER60SEC$320$029 July, 13:15
LOWER6SEC$80$029 July, 05:40
RAISE5MIN$10$029 July, 05:45
Total$11,519

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,237 MW at 19:00 as NSW spot hit $129/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,150 MW at 19:00 as QLD spot hit $110/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 679 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $123/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 112 MW at 08:30 as SA spot hit $206/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,063 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $105/MWh.

Discharged
5,801MWh
peak 1,237 MW · 19:00
Charged
7,431MWh
peak 1,468 MW
Net
-1,630MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
78%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,027MWh
peak 1,150 MW · 19:00
Charged
6,507MWh
peak 1,427 MW
Net
-1,481MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,437MWh
peak 679 MW · 18:30
Charged
2,985MWh
peak 434 MW
Net
-549MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
82%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
676MWh
peak 112 MW · 08:30
Charged
787MWh
peak 182 MW
Net
-110MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
86%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
13,940MWh
peak 3,063 MW · 18:30
Charged
17,710MWh
peak 2,846 MW
Net
-3,770MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
79%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100$0$100$200$30023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
5,801MWh
-1,630
#2QLD
5,027MWh
-1,481
#3VIC
2,437MWh
-549
#4SA
676MWh
-110

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 52.8%
  • Coal52.8% · 123.6 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro4.5% · 10.6 GWh
  • Wind18.3% · 42.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.6% · 24.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.8% · 25.3 GWh
  • Battery2.5% · 5.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.9%
  • Coal60.9% · 119.4 GWh
  • Gas3.9% · 7.6 GWh
  • Hydro2.5% · 4.9 GWh
  • Wind5.2% · 10.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.5% · 20.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.5% · 28.4 GWh
  • Battery2.6% · 5.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 49.8%
  • Coal49.8% · 95.4 GWh
  • Gas1.2% · 2.3 GWh
  • Hydro5.3% · 10.2 GWh
  • Wind34.3% · 65.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.6% · 4.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)5.5% · 10.5 GWh
  • Battery1.3% · 2.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 44.5%
  • Gas44.5% · 18.0 GWh
  • Wind34.1% · 13.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.7% · 1.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.0% · 6.1 GWh
  • Battery1.7% · 0.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 70.3%
  • Gas8.1% · 3.0 GWh
  • Hydro70.3% · 26.5 GWh
  • Wind19.6% · 7.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.1% · 0.8 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.7 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.4 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.1 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.0 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
42.5%
VIC · Daily renewable share
50.9%
QLD · Daily renewable share
38.1%
SA · Daily renewable share
49.4%
TAS · Daily renewable share
106.1%
Peak instantaneous
71.0%
at 13:15
Daily NEM-wide share
45.4%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    42.5%
  • VIC
    50.9%
  • QLD
    38.1%
  • SA
    49.4%
  • TAS
    106.1%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +29.0 GWh 1 —
NSW1-QLD1 −40.5 GWh 6 —
VIC1-NSW1 +11.4 GWh 34 —
V-SA −10.4 GWh 0 —
T-V-MNSP1 +15.2 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
342.8k tCO₂
▼ 7.4% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 108.2k tCO₂ 0.457 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 108.4k tCO₂ 0.544 tCO₂/MWh
SA 9.0k tCO₂ 0.223 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 115.4k tCO₂ 0.606 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.049 tCO₂/MWh