Wednesday 8 July 2026
Trading day 2026-07-08
Extreme price volatility in southern regions as Victoria exceeds nineteen thousand dollars
Average prices across the NEM showed a stark geographical split with Victoria, South Australia, and Tasmania all averaging over $326/MWh. In contrast, New South Wales and Queensland recorded much lower averages of $116.70/MWh and $82.60/MWh respectively. Victoria saw the most extreme volatility with a daily maximum price reaching $19,069.70/MWh.
Demand peaked across most mainland regions between 17:55 and 19:25, with New South Wales reaching 10,988 MW and Victoria hitting 8,344 MW. Total energy consumption for the day was highest in New South Wales at 427.2 GWh. Tasmania experienced its daily peak earlier in the morning at 08:15.
Coal remained the primary generation source at 54.7%, while the combined solar and wind share reached 22.8%. Hydro generation provided 11.5% of the mix, and batteries discharged 19,860 MWh to support the grid. The instantaneous renewable penetration peaked at 60.1% during the middle of the day.
FCAS costs were elevated in Tasmania where the Raise Regulation service peaked at $3,025/MWh across six spike intervals. Total daily emissions were recorded at 392,448 tonnes of CO2. This represents a 25.7% increase compared to the same day last week.
Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions expected to remain below $150/MWh.
Why it matters · The daily average price of $243.40/MWh is nearly four times the weekly average, marking a sharp escalation in a seven-day upward trend. This volatility is notable for occurring alongside a 25.7% rise in emissions and significant FCAS price spikes in Tasmania.
Prices
Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average
| Region | Avg | VWAP | Min | Max | Neg | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | $117 | $121 | $29 | $235 | 0 | 0 |
| QLD | $83 | $86 | $25 | $142 | 0 | 0 |
| SA | $341 | $375 | $91 | $16971 | 0 | 0 |
| VIC | $363 | $406 | $92 | $19070 | 0 | 0 |
| TAS | $326 | $348 | $88 | $17050 | 0 | 0 |
Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.
Demand
FCAS
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $7,532 | 0 | $20 | 8 July, 07:25 |
| LOWERREG | $537 | 0 | $5 | 8 July, 16:45 |
| RAISE6SEC | $448 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 20:05 |
| RAISE60SEC | $395 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 16:45 |
| RAISE5MIN | $269 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 18:25 |
| LOWER60SEC | $153 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:55 |
| LOWER6SEC | $79 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:55 |
| LOWER5MIN | $49 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:30 |
| Total | $9,462 | |||
Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $14,235 | 0 | $20 | 8 July, 07:25 |
| LOWERREG | $2,798 | 0 | $5 | 8 July, 16:45 |
| RAISE6SEC | $415 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 22:50 |
| LOWER60SEC | $408 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:55 |
| RAISE60SEC | $295 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 07:00 |
| LOWER6SEC | $142 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:55 |
| RAISE5MIN | $68 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 07:10 |
| LOWER5MIN | $67 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:30 |
| Total | $18,427 | |||
Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $10,531 | 0 | $20 | 8 July, 07:25 |
| LOWERREG | $2,059 | 0 | $5 | 8 July, 16:45 |
| RAISE6SEC | $1,059 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 20:05 |
| RAISE60SEC | $825 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 16:45 |
| RAISE5MIN | $523 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 18:25 |
| LOWER60SEC | $218 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:55 |
| LOWER6SEC | $118 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:55 |
| LOWER5MIN | $51 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:30 |
| Total | $15,384 | |||
Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISE6SEC | $29,709 | 0 | $100 | 8 July, 13:25 |
| RAISE60SEC | $23,270 | 0 | $49 | 8 July, 12:55 |
| LOWER60SEC | $11,311 | 0 | $37 | 8 July, 21:15 |
| RAISE5MIN | $7,152 | 0 | $47 | 8 July, 13:25 |
| RAISEREG | $6,753 | 0 | $52 | 8 July, 13:25 |
| LOWER6SEC | $4,880 | 0 | $5 | 8 July, 17:15 |
| LOWERREG | $2,750 | 0 | $5 | 8 July, 07:20 |
| LOWER5MIN | $510 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 06:35 |
| Total | $86,333 | |||
Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $195,050 | 6 | $3,025 | 8 July, 19:30 |
| LOWERREG | $4,306 | 0 | $2 | 8 July, 13:05 |
| RAISE6SEC | $23 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 20:05 |
| RAISE60SEC | $5 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 04:05 |
| RAISE5MIN | $3 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 18:25 |
| LOWER6SEC | $2 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:55 |
| LOWER60SEC | $0 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:55 |
| LOWER5MIN | $0 | 0 | $0 | 8 July, 15:30 |
| Total | $199,388 | |||
Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
Battery dispatch
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,522 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $231/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,350 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $129/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 752 MW at 08:30 as VIC spot hit $175/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 336 MW at 19:30 as SA spot hit $1.3k/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 3,548 MW at 18:00 as TAS spot hit $366/MWh.
Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average
Regional dispatch ranking
| Region | Discharged | Net |
|---|---|---|
#1NSW | 7,629MWh | +286 |
#2QLD | 5,601MWh | -513 |
#3VIC | 4,429MWh | -705 |
#4SA | 2,202MWh | +91 |
Generation Mix
- Coal68.2% · 151.4 GWh
- Gas2.0% · 4.4 GWh
- Hydro2.6% · 5.7 GWh
- Wind5.2% · 11.6 GWh
- Solar (utility)10.1% · 22.5 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)8.0% · 17.7 GWh
- Battery3.4% · 7.6 GWh
- Other0.5% · 1.0 GWh
- Coal61.7% · 130.3 GWh
- Gas3.4% · 7.2 GWh
- Hydro2.4% · 5.1 GWh
- Wind10.8% · 22.9 GWh
- Solar (utility)8.6% · 18.2 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)10.0% · 21.1 GWh
- Battery2.7% · 5.6 GWh
- Other0.4% · 0.8 GWh
- Coal57.4% · 98.8 GWh
- Gas10.9% · 18.8 GWh
- Hydro16.1% · 27.8 GWh
- Wind2.2% · 3.9 GWh
- Solar (utility)4.2% · 7.3 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)6.5% · 11.2 GWh
- Battery2.6% · 4.4 GWh
- Gas51.6% · 24.3 GWh
- Wind30.9% · 14.6 GWh
- Solar (utility)2.2% · 1.1 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)10.3% · 4.9 GWh
- Battery4.7% · 2.2 GWh
- Other0.2% · 0.1 GWh
- Gas1.4% · 0.6 GWh
- Hydro95.3% · 41.5 GWh
- Wind1.7% · 0.7 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)1.6% · 0.7 GWh
Renewables
- NSW 26.5%
- VIC 29.8%
- QLD 40.9%
- SA 47.5%
- TAS 123.0%
Interconnectors
| Region (proxy) | Net flow | Direction changes | Hours at limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-Q-MNSP1 | +58.0 GWh | 0 | — |
| NSW1-QLD1 | −40.9 GWh | 0 | — |
| VIC1-NSW1 | −28.5 GWh | 1 | — |
| V-SA | −295 MWh | 21 | — |
| T-V-MNSP1 | +18.8 GWh | 0 | — |
Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).
Emissions
| NSW | 134.6k tCO₂ | 0.597 tCO₂/MWh |
| QLD | 115.8k tCO₂ | 0.542 tCO₂/MWh |
| SA | 12.5k tCO₂ | 0.258 tCO₂/MWh |
| VIC | 129.2k tCO₂ | 0.746 tCO₂/MWh |
| TAS | 403 tCO₂ | 0.009 tCO₂/MWh |