NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Tuesday 16 June 2026

Trading day 2026-06-16

Market Snapshot

Southern regions see significant price decoupling as renewable share reaches 45.6 percent

Average prices across the NEM ranged from $23.00/MWh in South Australia to $62.60/MWh in New South Wales. South Australia and Victoria experienced 18 combined intervals of negative pricing, while Tasmania and the northern regions maintained positive values throughout the day.

Coal provided 50.9% of total generation, supported by a strong wind contribution of 24.6%. Combined solar sources accounted for 12.7% of the mix, while gas generation remained low at 2.3% of the total energy supplied.

Demand peaked across most regions between 17:45 and 18:05, with New South Wales and Queensland reaching 9,843 MW and 7,765 MW respectively. South Australia was the outlier with an earlier demand peak of 1,970 MW occurring at 11:00.

Batteries discharged 12,915 MWh to the grid, finishing the day with a net consumption of 3,487 MWh. FCAS costs were led by the Raise Regulation service at $45,871, with peak prices for several services concentrated in Tasmania and Queensland.

Total emissions were recorded at 319,359 tCO2, representing a 0.7% increase compared to the same day last week. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into New South Wales, totalling 38,041 MWh for the period.

Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with New South Wales expected to reach $98.25/MWh by 20:30.

Why it matters · The daily average of $44.80/MWh sits 25.1% below the weekly average, breaking a two-day rising trend. This price softening occurred alongside a high 24.6% wind share and 18 negative price intervals in the south, even as coal maintained a majority 50.9% stake in the total mix.

NSW $63VIC $24QLD $54SA $23TAS $59
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $63 $64 $5 $89 0 0
QLD $54 $56 -$3 $79 0 0
SA $23 $25 -$2 $86 8 0
VIC $24 $27 -$2 $83 10 0
TAS $59 $60 $0 $77 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
9,843MW
18:05
Trough
6,280MW
12:45
Energy
378.4GWh
QLD
Peak
7,765MW
17:50
Trough
4,956MW
13:05
Energy
294.2GWh
SA
Peak
1,970MW
11:00
Trough
1,361MW
04:00
Energy
81.7GWh
VIC
Peak
7,220MW
17:50
Trough
4,301MW
04:00
Energy
278.9GWh
TAS
Peak
1,392MW
17:45
Trough
954MW
04:00
Energy
57.3GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,3290$2716 June, 22:05
LOWERREG$1,0700$516 June, 19:45
RAISE60SEC$3090$016 June, 17:30
RAISE6SEC$2030$016 June, 19:40
RAISE5MIN$770$016 June, 14:15
LOWER60SEC$410$016 June, 04:55
LOWER5MIN$110$016 June, 08:40
LOWER6SEC$100$016 June, 05:05
Total$11,050

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWER60SEC$18,0280$3316 June, 13:50
LOWER6SEC$14,8660$716 June, 09:55
RAISEREG$13,0820$2716 June, 22:05
LOWER5MIN$4,2600$616 June, 14:15
LOWERREG$3,5920$1116 June, 15:25
RAISE6SEC$3120$016 June, 19:40
RAISE60SEC$1950$016 June, 16:35
RAISE5MIN$770$016 June, 16:35
Total$54,412

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,2360$2716 June, 22:05
LOWERREG$3,5810$516 June, 19:45
RAISE60SEC$4910$016 June, 17:30
RAISE6SEC$2840$016 June, 19:40
RAISE5MIN$920$016 June, 14:15
LOWER60SEC$410$016 June, 04:55
LOWER5MIN$60$016 June, 08:40
LOWER6SEC$30$016 June, 05:05
Total$11,735

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,4920$2716 June, 22:05
LOWERREG$5,2420$516 June, 19:45
RAISE60SEC$3330$016 June, 17:30
RAISE6SEC$2880$016 June, 19:40
RAISE5MIN$950$016 June, 14:15
LOWER60SEC$580$016 June, 04:55
LOWER6SEC$140$016 June, 05:05
LOWER5MIN$130$016 June, 08:40
Total$14,536

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$9,4520$3216 June, 22:00
LOWER6SEC$9,4240$3016 June, 12:00
RAISEREG$7,7320$516 June, 05:55
LOWER60SEC$3,9400$316 June, 04:05
RAISE6SEC$3,7310$3116 June, 16:55
RAISE60SEC$2,5390$316 June, 05:15
RAISE5MIN$2800$016 June, 04:15
LOWER5MIN$660$016 June, 04:05
Total$37,164

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 753 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $78/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,262 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $77/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 876 MW at 18:00 as VIC spot hit $68/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 506 MW at 17:30 as SA spot hit $65/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,352 MW at 18:00 as TAS spot hit $72/MWh.

Discharged
2,975MWh
peak 753 MW · 18:00
Charged
3,748MWh
peak 999 MW
Net
-773MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
79%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,200MWh
peak 1,262 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,746MWh
peak 1,250 MW
Net
-1,546MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,074MWh
peak 876 MW · 18:00
Charged
3,736MWh
peak 691 MW
Net
-662MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
82%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,666MWh
peak 506 MW · 17:30
Charged
2,172MWh
peak 409 MW
Net
-506MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
12,915MWh
peak 3,352 MW · 18:00
Charged
16,402MWh
peak 2,092 MW
Net
-3,487MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
79%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$10023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,200MWh
-1,546
#2VIC
3,074MWh
-662
#3NSW
2,975MWh
-773
#4SA
1,666MWh
-506

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 64.0%
  • Coal64.0% · 122.8 GWh
  • Gas1.0% · 2.0 GWh
  • Hydro5.7% · 10.9 GWh
  • Wind9.0% · 17.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.2% · 15.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.5% · 20.2 GWh
  • Battery1.6% · 3.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 55.2%
  • Coal55.2% · 105.3 GWh
  • Gas5.7% · 10.9 GWh
  • Hydro2.4% · 4.6 GWh
  • Wind14.7% · 28.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.9% · 16.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.3% · 19.7 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 54.2%
  • Coal54.2% · 95.8 GWh
  • Hydro1.9% · 3.4 GWh
  • Wind38.3% · 67.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.5% · 2.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.3% · 4.1 GWh
  • Battery1.7% · 3.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 89.4%
  • Gas3.3% · 1.5 GWh
  • Wind89.4% · 40.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.0% · 0.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.7% · 1.2 GWh
  • Battery3.7% · 1.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 89.5%
  • Hydro89.5% · 28.2 GWh
  • Wind10.1% · 3.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)0.4% · 0.1 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.7 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.4 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.9 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.5 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.5 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
30.1%
VIC · Daily renewable share
51.4%
QLD · Daily renewable share
42.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
97.9%
TAS · Daily renewable share
99.1%
Peak instantaneous
65.1%
at 12:40
Daily NEM-wide share
45.6%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    30.1%
  • VIC
    51.4%
  • QLD
    42.5%
  • SA
    97.9%
  • TAS
    99.1%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +20.3 GWh 4 —
NSW1-QLD1 −53.4 GWh 0 —
VIC1-NSW1 +38.0 GWh 0 —
V-SA +485 MWh 34 —
T-V-MNSP1 −831 MWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
319.4k tCO₂
▲ 0.7% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 109.8k tCO₂ 0.578 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 96.1k tCO₂ 0.503 tCO₂/MWh
SA 818 tCO₂ 0.018 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 112.7k tCO₂ 0.641 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh