RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 25 August 2026

The MT PASA results published on 25 August 2026 identifies annual unserved energy exceeds the reliability standard between:
- August 2027 - August 2028 in Victoria.

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER) for the following region(s) and periods:
- July 2028 in Victoria
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

This MT PASA result incorporates updated inputs and assumptions also used in the 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), published on 25 August 2026. Including updated demand forecasts, solar and wind traces, unplanned outage rates, and commissioning assumptions for new generation and storage projects.

MT PASA and the ESOO are separate reliability assessments. While they use many common inputs, some assumptions and modelling treatments differ, including the magnitude and timeframe over which generation energy limits are applied, the timing and duration of planned and maintenance outages. These differences can affect generation availability during periods of system stress and result in different expected unserved energy outcomes.  

MT PASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO's website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines.

This notice supersedes Market Notice 144808 published on 18 August 2026.

Forecasting