NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 25 October 2026

Trading day 2026-10-25

Market Snapshot

TAS records $23,200/MW FCAS spikes alongside 6.8 negative hours in SA

Average prices settled at $82.4/MWh in TAS, $82.2/MWh in NSW, $77.0/MWh in QLD, $75.0/MWh in VIC and $65.4/MWh in SA. SA recorded 6.8 hours of negative prices, representing 28.5 per cent of its trading day. The highest regional price was $204.2/MWh in TAS at 16:25.

NSW recorded the highest demand peak of 9199 MW at 16:45. Coal accounted for 50.8 per cent of generation, followed by wind at 20.8 per cent and rooftop solar at 12.1 per cent. Batteries discharged 12,608 MWh with a net load of -8347 MWh.

Raise regulation FCAS costs totalled $221,367, with prices peaking at $23,200/MW in TAS. Lower regulation FCAS costs reached $210,295, also peaking at $23,200/MW in TAS. Total emissions were 299,682 tCO2.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts indicate SA prices will reach $625.89/MWh at 08:30. NSW is forecast to peak at $299.99/MWh at 22:00.

In context · The NEM average price was below the seven-day average of $89.1/MWh, ranking sixth for the week. SA's average of $65.4/MWh was below its seven-day average of $71.2/MWh.

NSW $82VIC $75QLD $77SA $65TAS $82
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $30 $60 $90 $120 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 $0 $28 $55 $83 $110 -$10 $25 $60 $95 $130 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 05:00 11:00 17:00 23:00 05:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $82 $85 $38 $119 0 0
QLD $77 $78 $30 $106 0 0
SA $65 $73 -$9 $130 82 0
VIC $75 $74 $0 $127 0 0
TAS $82 $82 $27 $204 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
9,199MW
17:45
Trough
5,041MW
11:50
Energy
328.9GWh
QLD
Peak
7,579MW
19:00
Trough
5,024MW
13:40
Energy
290.8GWh
SA
Peak
1,389MW
20:55
Trough
201MW
16:40
Energy
51.1GWh
VIC
Peak
5,938MW
20:15
Trough
4,237MW
05:30
Energy
244.6GWh
TAS
Peak
1,195MW
17:25
Trough
874MW
02:15
Energy
49.5GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,6870$1225 Oct, 08:20
LOWERREG$1,1750$725 Oct, 17:55
LOWER60SEC$1450$025 Oct, 14:00
RAISE60SEC$750$025 Oct, 05:45
RAISE6SEC$740$025 Oct, 23:05
LOWER6SEC$480$025 Oct, 16:35
LOWER5MIN$480$025 Oct, 14:40
RAISE5MIN$310$025 Oct, 17:10
Total$7,283

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,1730$1225 Oct, 08:20
LOWERREG$3,0300$725 Oct, 17:55
LOWER60SEC$1980$025 Oct, 14:00
RAISE60SEC$1460$025 Oct, 05:45
RAISE6SEC$1440$025 Oct, 23:05
LOWER5MIN$560$025 Oct, 14:40
LOWER6SEC$460$025 Oct, 16:35
RAISE5MIN$360$025 Oct, 17:10
Total$12,829

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,7160$1225 Oct, 08:20
LOWERREG$3,1040$725 Oct, 17:55
LOWER60SEC$2320$025 Oct, 14:00
RAISE60SEC$1510$025 Oct, 05:45
RAISE6SEC$1360$025 Oct, 23:05
RAISE5MIN$750$025 Oct, 17:10
LOWER6SEC$610$025 Oct, 16:35
LOWER5MIN$500$025 Oct, 14:40
Total$12,525

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$4,0660$725 Oct, 17:55
RAISEREG$3,8410$1225 Oct, 08:20
LOWER60SEC$2310$025 Oct, 14:00
RAISE6SEC$1780$025 Oct, 23:05
RAISE60SEC$1680$025 Oct, 05:45
LOWER6SEC$860$025 Oct, 16:35
RAISE5MIN$460$025 Oct, 17:10
LOWER5MIN$410$025 Oct, 14:40
Total$8,658

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$198,9212$23,20025 Oct, 15:45
RAISEREG$193,9502$23,20025 Oct, 15:45
RAISE6SEC$1,6460$3825 Oct, 12:20
RAISE60SEC$1,2090$025 Oct, 05:05
LOWER6SEC$1810$325 Oct, 05:45
LOWER60SEC$1190$125 Oct, 06:20
RAISE5MIN$420$025 Oct, 09:05
LOWER5MIN$40$025 Oct, 05:40
Total$396,072

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,156 MW at 20:30 as NSW spot hit $94/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 928 MW at 20:30 as QLD spot hit $93/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 830 MW at 21:00 as VIC spot hit $80/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet peaked at 134 MW around 01:30.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,713 MW at 20:30 as TAS spot hit $96/MWh.

Discharged
5,685MWh
peak 1,156 MW · 20:30
Charged
8,195MWh
peak 1,349 MW
Net
-2,510MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
69%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,494MWh
peak 928 MW · 20:30
Charged
5,373MWh
peak 1,049 MW
Net
-1,879MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
65%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,885MWh
peak 830 MW · 21:00
Charged
5,111MWh
peak 1,606 MW
Net
-2,225MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
56%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
544MWh
peak 134 MW · 01:30
Charged
2,277MWh
peak 562 MW
Net
-1,733MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
24%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
12,608MWh
peak 2,713 MW · 20:30
Charged
20,955MWh
peak 2,830 MW
Net
-8,347MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
60%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$15000:3007:3714:4521:5205:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
5,685MWh
-2,510
#2QLD
3,494MWh
-1,879
#3VIC
2,885MWh
-2,225
#4SA
544MWh
-1,733

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 46.3%
  • Coal46.3% · 95.5 GWh
  • Gas0.7% · 1.4 GWh
  • Hydro3.4% · 6.9 GWh
  • Wind18.4% · 37.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.1% · 20.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)18.4% · 38.0 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 5.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 62.8%
  • Coal62.8% · 121.6 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 0.9 GWh
  • Hydro3.1% · 5.9 GWh
  • Wind11.2% · 21.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.1% · 17.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.6% · 22.4 GWh
  • Battery1.8% · 3.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.3%
  • Coal60.3% · 90.5 GWh
  • Hydro3.0% · 4.5 GWh
  • Wind28.9% · 43.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.5% · 3.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)3.3% · 4.9 GWh
  • Battery1.9% · 2.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.9%
  • Gas12.7% · 4.5 GWh
  • Wind58.9% · 20.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.5% · 1.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)21.4% · 7.6 GWh
  • Battery1.5% · 0.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 87.2%
  • Hydro87.2% · 17.9 GWh
  • Wind10.4% · 2.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.4% · 0.5 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0011.1 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.0 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:008.2 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:002.5 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
00:3006:3712:4518:5201:001.3 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
50.7%
VIC · Daily renewable share
42.8%
QLD · Daily renewable share
39.9%
SA · Daily renewable share
86.5%
TAS · Daily renewable share
73.4%
Peak instantaneous
70.1%
at 13:35
Daily NEM-wide share
46.2%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    50.7%
  • VIC
    42.8%
  • QLD
    39.9%
  • SA
    86.5%
  • TAS
    73.4%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +19.1 GWh 14 —
NSW1-QLD1 −25.9 GWh 12 —
VIC1-NSW1 +28.8 GWh 12 —
V-SA −580 MWh 8 —
T-V-MNSP1 −17.4 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
299.7k tCO₂
▲ 18.9% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 83.4k tCO₂ 0.398 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 107.0k tCO₂ 0.551 tCO₂/MWh
SA 2.1k tCO₂ 0.059 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 107.1k tCO₂ 0.713 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh