NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 4 October 2026

Trading day 2026-10-04

Market Snapshot

SA averages $130.3/MWh to record the highest regional price

Regional average prices ranged from $55.5/MWh in QLD to $130.3/MWh in SA, with QLD recording 208 negative intervals totalling 17.3 hours. VIC and TAS recorded 7.5 and 6.5 hours of negative prices respectively.

NSW recorded the highest demand peak of 7824 MW at 18:30, and coal accounted for 47.4 per cent of the generation mix. Rooftop and utility solar contributed 19.2 per cent and 11.3 per cent respectively, while batteries discharged 13,595 MWh with a net position of -4804 MWh.

FCAS costs were highest for the regulation raise service at $41,041, with no price spikes recorded across any markets. Total emissions were 280,078 tonnes of carbon dioxide, 6.5 per cent higher than the same weekday last week.

AEMO issued six market notices between 09:25 and 09:50, with AEMO's notice at 09:25 stating prices for the 09:30 interval were subject to review. Subsequent notices at 09:30, 09:35, 09:40, 09:45 and 09:50 stated prices for the corresponding intervals were also subject to review.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts show QLD reaching a peak price of $319.04/MWh at 19:30, while SA is forecast to reach $145.0/MWh at 18:30.

In context · The NEM average price of $76.8/MWh was the second highest of the past seven days, which ranged from $25.8/MWh to $103.2/MWh. The SA average of $130.3/MWh was the highest of the week for the region, comparing with -$3.83/MWh on the same weekday last week.

NSW $81VIC $79QLD $56SA $130TAS $73
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $43 $85 $128 $170 -$40 $23 $85 $148 $210 -$20 $18 $55 $93 $130 $0 $65 $130 $195 $260 -$30 $25 $80 $135 $190 05:00 11:00 17:00 23:00 05:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $81 $91 -$6 $168 4 0
QLD $56 $67 -$20 $129 208 0
SA $130 $132 $0 $390 0 0
VIC $79 $89 -$44 $232 90 0
TAS $73 $75 -$46 $208 78 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
7,824MW
19:30
Trough
3,258MW
12:35
Energy
280.1GWh
QLD
Peak
7,122MW
19:15
Trough
2,869MW
13:05
Energy
248.1GWh
SA
Peak
1,478MW
20:10
Trough
612MW
14:15
Energy
54.2GWh
VIC
Peak
6,153MW
20:00
Trough
2,551MW
14:35
Energy
217.4GWh
TAS
Peak
1,195MW
19:55
Trough
832MW
13:55
Energy
49.2GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,7000$205 Oct, 03:50
LOWERREG$1,8890$44 Oct, 20:45
LOWER60SEC$3510$14 Oct, 16:15
LOWER6SEC$3430$14 Oct, 16:55
RAISE6SEC$1570$04 Oct, 07:20
RAISE60SEC$1360$04 Oct, 05:20
LOWER5MIN$980$04 Oct, 16:25
RAISE5MIN$380$04 Oct, 05:05
Total$10,711

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$11,4210$205 Oct, 03:50
LOWERREG$2,8520$44 Oct, 20:45
LOWER60SEC$4140$14 Oct, 16:15
LOWER6SEC$3990$14 Oct, 16:55
RAISE6SEC$1760$04 Oct, 07:20
RAISE60SEC$1390$04 Oct, 05:20
LOWER5MIN$570$04 Oct, 16:25
RAISE5MIN$210$04 Oct, 05:05
Total$15,480

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,8520$205 Oct, 03:50
LOWERREG$2,0150$44 Oct, 20:45
RAISE6SEC$1920$04 Oct, 07:20
RAISE60SEC$1830$04 Oct, 05:20
LOWER60SEC$1560$14 Oct, 16:15
LOWER6SEC$1170$14 Oct, 16:55
RAISE5MIN$530$04 Oct, 05:05
LOWER5MIN$270$04 Oct, 16:25
Total$11,596

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$3,0320$44 Oct, 20:45
RAISEREG$2,4420$205 Oct, 03:50
LOWER60SEC$7160$14 Oct, 16:15
LOWER6SEC$6790$14 Oct, 16:55
RAISE6SEC$2040$04 Oct, 07:20
RAISE60SEC$1760$04 Oct, 05:20
LOWER5MIN$1610$04 Oct, 16:25
RAISE5MIN$360$04 Oct, 05:05
Total$7,447

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,6250$405 Oct, 01:35
LOWERREG$3,9860$224 Oct, 07:40
RAISE6SEC$3,3860$4804 Oct, 17:35
RAISE60SEC$5740$04 Oct, 05:05
LOWER6SEC$2050$34 Oct, 06:35
LOWER60SEC$1650$14 Oct, 16:15
RAISE5MIN$40$04 Oct, 18:20
LOWER5MIN$10$04 Oct, 16:45
Total$18,947

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,052 MW at 19:30 as NSW spot hit $122/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,399 MW at 19:30 as QLD spot hit $109/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 632 MW at 20:30 as VIC spot hit $125/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet peaked at 191 MW around 00:30.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,892 MW at 19:30 as TAS spot hit $116/MWh.

Discharged
4,180MWh
peak 1,052 MW · 19:30
Charged
6,047MWh
peak 1,292 MW
Net
-1,867MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
69%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,932MWh
peak 1,399 MW · 19:30
Charged
6,073MWh
peak 1,177 MW
Net
-1,141MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
81%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,537MWh
peak 632 MW · 20:30
Charged
4,720MWh
peak 1,290 MW
Net
-1,182MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
75%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
946MWh
peak 191 MW · 00:30
Charged
1,560MWh
peak 297 MW
Net
-614MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
61%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
13,595MWh
peak 2,892 MW · 19:30
Charged
18,399MWh
peak 3,407 MW
Net
-4,805MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
74%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100$0$100$200$30023:3007:3714:4521:5205:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
4,932MWh
-1,141
#2NSW
4,180MWh
-1,867
#3VIC
3,537MWh
-1,182
#4SA
946MWh
-614

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 46.1%
  • Coal46.1% · 85.9 GWh
  • Gas2.0% · 3.6 GWh
  • Hydro7.6% · 14.1 GWh
  • Wind4.5% · 8.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)15.0% · 28.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)22.6% · 42.2 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 4.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 53.8%
  • Coal53.8% · 108.4 GWh
  • Gas1.4% · 2.8 GWh
  • Hydro2.7% · 5.4 GWh
  • Wind9.0% · 18.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.8% · 23.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)19.0% · 38.3 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 4.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 56.9%
  • Coal56.9% · 86.0 GWh
  • Gas0.3% · 0.5 GWh
  • Hydro3.5% · 5.2 GWh
  • Wind11.5% · 17.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.8% · 13.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)16.7% · 25.2 GWh
  • Battery2.3% · 3.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 37.3%
  • Gas37.3% · 9.6 GWh
  • Wind26.1% · 6.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)6.6% · 1.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)26.2% · 6.7 GWh
  • Battery3.7% · 0.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 86.1%
  • Gas1.3% · 0.3 GWh
  • Hydro86.1% · 22.4 GWh
  • Wind7.6% · 2.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.9% · 1.3 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3006:3712:4518:5201:0010.2 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3006:3712:4518:5201:009.7 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3006:3712:4518:5201:007.1 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3006:3712:4518:5201:001.5 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3006:3712:4518:5201:001.7 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
45.5%
VIC · Daily renewable share
45.0%
QLD · Daily renewable share
52.1%
SA · Daily renewable share
43.2%
TAS · Daily renewable share
90.9%
Peak instantaneous
76.6%
at 13:15
Daily NEM-wide share
46.3%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    45.5%
  • VIC
    45.0%
  • QLD
    52.1%
  • SA
    43.2%
  • TAS
    90.9%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +47.4 GWh 0 —
NSW1-QLD1 −30.3 GWh 8 —
VIC1-NSW1 +12.6 GWh 27 —
V-SA −21.9 GWh 0 —
T-V-MNSP1 −1.3 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
280.1k tCO₂
▲ 6.5% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 76.3k tCO₂ 0.405 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 96.8k tCO₂ 0.475 tCO₂/MWh
SA 4.7k tCO₂ 0.181 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 102.0k tCO₂ 0.673 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 229 tCO₂ 0.009 tCO₂/MWh