NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Saturday 3 October 2026

Trading day 2026-10-03

Market Snapshot

New South Wales averages $97.0/MWh while South Australia records negative hours

Regional prices ranged from $36.8/MWh in South Australia to $97.0/MWh in New South Wales. South Australia recorded 20.7 negative hours, Queensland recorded 16.0 negative hours, and Victoria recorded 12.2 negative hours. New South Wales recorded zero negative intervals, and no region recorded cap intervals during the trading day.

New South Wales demand peaked at 8206 MW at 18:40, while Queensland demand reached 7031 MW at 18:30. Victoria recorded a peak demand of 6322 MW at 18:55, and South Australia reached 1511 MW at 18:25.

Coal supplied 45.8 per cent of NEM generation, wind contributed 23.1 per cent, and gas provided 1.2 per cent. Rooftop solar supplied 13.8 per cent of generation, and utility solar contributed 9.2 per cent. Batteries discharged 12.7 GWh across the NEM, finishing the day with a net position of -4.8 GWh.

Total FCAS costs remained low across all eight services, with regulation raise recording the highest cost at $34,572. Total emissions were 264,564 tonnes, 5.9 per cent below the same weekday last week.

Today · Pre-dispatch figures forecast a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30.

In context · The NEM average price of $45.0/MWh ranked fourth across the previous seven days, which ranged from $23.4/MWh to $103.2/MWh. The New South Wales average of $97.0/MWh was the highest recorded in that region over the past week.

NSW $97VIC $38QLD $54SA $37TAS $42
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $33 $65 $98 $130 -$30 $10 $50 $90 $130 -$10 $23 $55 $88 $120 -$80 -$25 $30 $85 $140 -$30 $10 $50 $90 $130 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 05:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $97 $98 $43 $131 0 0
QLD $54 $66 -$13 $109 192 0
SA $37 $51 -$100 $133 248 0
VIC $38 $39 -$45 $122 146 0
TAS $42 $43 -$47 $115 64 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,206MW
18:40
Trough
5,733MW
14:30
Energy
332.6GWh
QLD
Peak
7,031MW
18:30
Trough
2,688MW
11:05
Energy
245.3GWh
SA
Peak
1,511MW
18:25
Trough
480MW
15:10
Energy
53.0GWh
VIC
Peak
6,322MW
18:55
Trough
4,221MW
05:00
Energy
250.3GWh
TAS
Peak
1,136MW
20:55
Trough
819MW
01:45
Energy
47.4GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,4980$123 Oct, 17:25
LOWERREG$2,1480$43 Oct, 17:25
LOWER60SEC$2000$03 Oct, 11:50
RAISE60SEC$1250$04 Oct, 01:15
RAISE6SEC$1240$03 Oct, 21:20
LOWER6SEC$620$03 Oct, 15:20
LOWER5MIN$600$03 Oct, 15:35
RAISE5MIN$390$03 Oct, 21:35
Total$9,255

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,5650$123 Oct, 17:25
LOWERREG$2,9530$43 Oct, 17:25
LOWER60SEC$2030$03 Oct, 11:50
RAISE6SEC$1330$03 Oct, 21:20
RAISE60SEC$1140$03 Oct, 17:55
LOWER6SEC$350$03 Oct, 15:20
LOWER5MIN$330$03 Oct, 15:35
RAISE5MIN$250$03 Oct, 21:35
Total$10,061

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,7460$123 Oct, 17:25
LOWERREG$1,9230$43 Oct, 17:25
RAISE60SEC$1890$04 Oct, 01:15
RAISE6SEC$1770$03 Oct, 21:20
LOWER60SEC$1390$03 Oct, 11:50
RAISE5MIN$580$03 Oct, 21:35
LOWER6SEC$340$03 Oct, 15:20
LOWER5MIN$230$03 Oct, 15:35
Total$12,290

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$2,5720$123 Oct, 17:25
LOWERREG$2,2290$43 Oct, 17:25
LOWER60SEC$2160$03 Oct, 11:50
RAISE6SEC$1720$03 Oct, 21:20
RAISE60SEC$1600$04 Oct, 01:15
LOWER6SEC$610$03 Oct, 15:20
LOWER5MIN$470$03 Oct, 15:35
RAISE5MIN$360$03 Oct, 21:35
Total$5,494

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,1910$64 Oct, 04:10
LOWERREG$5,6930$483 Oct, 15:45
RAISE6SEC$3,2560$414 Oct, 04:40
RAISE60SEC$1,1500$03 Oct, 04:05
LOWER6SEC$3000$33 Oct, 23:05
LOWER60SEC$1330$13 Oct, 23:05
RAISE5MIN$110$03 Oct, 07:55
LOWER5MIN$10$03 Oct, 23:05
Total$19,736

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 852 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $113/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,481 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $99/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 814 MW at 23:00 as VIC spot hit $105/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 324 MW at 19:30 as SA spot hit $98/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,531 MW at 19:30 as TAS spot hit $87/MWh.

Discharged
3,110MWh
peak 852 MW · 18:30
Charged
4,571MWh
peak 938 MW
Net
-1,461MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
68%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,212MWh
peak 1,481 MW · 18:30
Charged
5,992MWh
peak 1,119 MW
Net
-780MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
87%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,081MWh
peak 814 MW · 23:00
Charged
4,789MWh
peak 1,015 MW
Net
-1,708MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
64%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,363MWh
peak 324 MW · 19:30
Charged
2,282MWh
peak 434 MW
Net
-919MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
60%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
12,767MWh
peak 2,531 MW · 19:30
Charged
17,634MWh
peak 2,954 MW
Net
-4,868MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
72%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5205:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,212MWh
-780
#2NSW
3,110MWh
-1,461
#3VIC
3,081MWh
-1,708
#4SA
1,363MWh
-919

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 56.3%
  • Coal56.3% · 93.6 GWh
  • Gas0.6% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro6.3% · 10.5 GWh
  • Wind8.3% · 13.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)13.1% · 21.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)13.6% · 22.6 GWh
  • Battery1.9% · 3.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 52.8%
  • Coal52.8% · 107.6 GWh
  • Gas1.3% · 2.7 GWh
  • Hydro2.3% · 4.7 GWh
  • Wind8.7% · 17.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.3% · 25.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)19.7% · 40.2 GWh
  • Battery2.6% · 5.2 GWh
  • Other0.2% · 0.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 47.4%
  • Coal40.9% · 71.5 GWh
  • Hydro0.3% · 0.6 GWh
  • Wind47.4% · 82.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.4% · 7.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)5.2% · 9.0 GWh
  • Battery1.8% · 3.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 57.4%
  • Gas9.6% · 3.1 GWh
  • Wind57.4% · 18.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.4% · 0.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)27.4% · 8.8 GWh
  • Battery4.3% · 1.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 66.8%
  • Hydro66.8% · 12.9 GWh
  • Wind24.6% · 4.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)8.6% · 1.7 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.1 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.3 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.0 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.7 GW 0
hydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.2 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
34.8%
VIC · Daily renewable share
68.9%
QLD · Daily renewable share
53.3%
SA · Daily renewable share
75.0%
TAS · Daily renewable share
69.2%
Peak instantaneous
72.9%
at 12:55
Daily NEM-wide share
51.2%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    34.8%
  • VIC
    68.9%
  • QLD
    53.3%
  • SA
    75.0%
  • TAS
    69.2%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +51.7 GWh 0 —
NSW1-QLD1 −58.4 GWh 0 —
VIC1-NSW1 +40.5 GWh 6 —
V-SA −14.0 GWh 14 —
T-V-MNSP1 −12.8 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
264.6k tCO₂
▼ 5.9% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 82.1k tCO₂ 0.490 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 95.9k tCO₂ 0.465 tCO₂/MWh
SA 1.5k tCO₂ 0.045 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 85.2k tCO₂ 0.488 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 0 tCO₂ 0.000 tCO₂/MWh