Tuesday 1 September 2026
Trading day 2026-09-01
Renewable generation share exceeds fifty percent as Victorian prices collapse
Average regional prices showed a sharp north-south divide with New South Wales and Queensland averaging 44.90 and 42.80 dollars per megawatt hour respectively. South Australia recorded the most volatile pricing with 278 negative intervals and a maximum price of 220.70 dollars per megawatt hour. In contrast, Victoria and Tasmania saw significantly lower averages of 4.90 and 14.30 dollars per megawatt hour.
Renewable generation reached an instantaneous peak of 75.8 percent at 11:30, with wind contributing 25.4 percent of the total daily energy mix. Solar sources combined for 22.7 percent of generation, while coal provided 45 percent and gas was limited to 1 percent. Batteries discharged 10,735 megawatt hours throughout the day to support the evening peaks.
Evening demand peaked across most mainland regions between 18:05 and 18:50, led by New South Wales at 8,905 megawatts. Interconnector flows were dominated by 36,858 megawatt hours moving from Victoria into New South Wales to balance regional demand. FCAS costs were highest in the Raise 6 Second and Lower Regulation services, with Tasmania recording the highest local prices.
Total system emissions were 273,419 tonnes of carbon dioxide, reflecting the high renewable contribution and low gas utilisation. The market operated without major price caps or reserve shortfalls despite the high frequency of negative pricing intervals in southern regions.
Today · Forward projections indicate a Queensland price peak of 319.04 dollars at 19:30 and a New South Wales peak of 98.25 dollars.
Why it matters · The daily average price of 22.20 dollars represents a 70.9 percent decrease from the seven-day average, breaking a week-long trend of higher pricing. This collapse occurred as the renewable share exceeded 50 percent and emissions dropped by over 20 percent, creating a significant price decoupling between the northern and southern regions.
Prices
Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average
| Region | Avg | VWAP | Min | Max | Neg | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | $45 | $51 | -$19 | $93 | 108 | 0 |
| QLD | $43 | $47 | -$6 | $88 | 76 | 0 |
| SA | $36 | $39 | -$120 | $221 | 278 | 0 |
| VIC | $5 | $7 | -$60 | $76 | 194 | 0 |
| TAS | $14 | $14 | -$59 | $88 | 178 | 0 |
Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.
Demand
FCAS
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $3,615 | 0 | $16 | 1 Sept, 09:30 |
| LOWERREG | $562 | 0 | $5 | 1 Sept, 17:05 |
| RAISE6SEC | $91 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 06:45 |
| LOWER60SEC | $90 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 12:35 |
| RAISE60SEC | $85 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 06:50 |
| LOWER5MIN | $57 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 14:45 |
| LOWER6SEC | $39 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 12:45 |
| RAISE5MIN | $34 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 19:55 |
| Total | $4,573 | |||
Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $14,135 | 0 | $16 | 1 Sept, 09:30 |
| LOWERREG | $3,235 | 0 | $5 | 1 Sept, 17:05 |
| LOWER60SEC | $378 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 12:35 |
| RAISE6SEC | $308 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 17:35 |
| RAISE60SEC | $277 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 06:20 |
| LOWER5MIN | $113 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 14:45 |
| LOWER6SEC | $91 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 12:45 |
| RAISE5MIN | $64 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 19:55 |
| Total | $18,602 | |||
Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $12,099 | 0 | $16 | 1 Sept, 09:30 |
| LOWERREG | $2,532 | 0 | $5 | 1 Sept, 17:05 |
| RAISE60SEC | $309 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 06:50 |
| RAISE6SEC | $285 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 06:45 |
| LOWER60SEC | $236 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 12:35 |
| RAISE5MIN | $124 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 19:55 |
| LOWER5MIN | $70 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 14:45 |
| LOWER6SEC | $60 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 12:45 |
| Total | $15,715 | |||
Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $5,507 | 0 | $16 | 1 Sept, 09:30 |
| LOWERREG | $3,807 | 0 | $5 | 1 Sept, 17:05 |
| RAISE6SEC | $266 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 06:45 |
| LOWER60SEC | $227 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 12:35 |
| RAISE60SEC | $225 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 06:50 |
| LOWER6SEC | $80 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 12:45 |
| LOWER5MIN | $75 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 14:45 |
| RAISE5MIN | $73 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 19:55 |
| Total | $10,259 | |||
Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOWERREG | $19,356 | 0 | $96 | 1 Sept, 08:20 |
| RAISE6SEC | $16,388 | 0 | $106 | 1 Sept, 18:20 |
| RAISEREG | $10,360 | 0 | $11 | 1 Sept, 17:45 |
| RAISE60SEC | $1,392 | 0 | $3 | 1 Sept, 17:45 |
| LOWER6SEC | $1,284 | 0 | $28 | 1 Sept, 19:25 |
| LOWER60SEC | $80 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 17:35 |
| RAISE5MIN | $53 | 0 | $3 | 1 Sept, 18:20 |
| LOWER5MIN | $0 | 0 | $0 | 1 Sept, 14:45 |
| Total | $48,913 | |||
Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
Battery dispatch
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 731 MW at 19:00 as NSW spot hit $84/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,384 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $82/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 192 MW at 07:00 as VIC spot hit $31/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 285 MW at 19:30 as SA spot hit $106/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 2,264 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $39/MWh.
Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average
Regional dispatch ranking
| Region | Discharged | Net |
|---|---|---|
#1QLD | 5,765MWh | -1,003 |
#2NSW | 3,087MWh | -829 |
#3VIC | 947MWh | -4,418 |
#4SA | 936MWh | -1,353 |
Generation Mix
- Coal49.4% · 101.4 GWh
- Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
- Hydro3.7% · 7.5 GWh
- Wind12.7% · 26.1 GWh
- Solar (utility)14.3% · 29.3 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)17.8% · 36.6 GWh
- Battery1.5% · 3.1 GWh
- Other0.1% · 0.1 GWh
- Coal58.3% · 109.8 GWh
- Gas1.4% · 2.6 GWh
- Hydro2.2% · 4.2 GWh
- Wind11.8% · 22.2 GWh
- Solar (utility)9.6% · 18.2 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)13.5% · 25.4 GWh
- Battery3.1% · 5.8 GWh
- Other0.1% · 0.2 GWh
- Coal41.8% · 72.6 GWh
- Hydro0.4% · 0.8 GWh
- Wind42.0% · 73.0 GWh
- Solar (utility)3.6% · 6.2 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)11.7% · 20.3 GWh
- Battery0.5% · 0.9 GWh
- Gas5.9% · 2.4 GWh
- Wind75.9% · 30.6 GWh
- Solar (utility)1.2% · 0.5 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)14.6% · 5.9 GWh
- Battery2.3% · 0.9 GWh
- Hydro60.9% · 14.4 GWh
- Wind35.5% · 8.4 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)3.6% · 0.8 GWh
Renewables
- NSW 45.6%
- VIC 65.7%
- QLD 43.2%
- SA 84.8%
- TAS 80.6%
Interconnectors
| Region (proxy) | Net flow | Direction changes | Hours at limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-Q-MNSP1 | +10.5 GWh | 12 | — |
| NSW1-QLD1 | −21.7 GWh | 6 | — |
| VIC1-NSW1 | +36.9 GWh | 0 | — |
| V-SA | −14.8 GWh | 5 | — |
| T-V-MNSP1 | −6.3 GWh | 0 | — |
Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).
Emissions
| NSW | 88.7k tCO₂ | 0.430 tCO₂/MWh |
| QLD | 97.5k tCO₂ | 0.508 tCO₂/MWh |
| SA | 1.1k tCO₂ | 0.028 tCO₂/MWh |
| VIC | 86.1k tCO₂ | 0.502 tCO₂/MWh |
| TAS | 0 tCO₂ | 0.000 tCO₂/MWh |