NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Saturday 29 August 2026

Trading day 2026-08-29

Market Snapshot

Renewable generation peaks at seventy-one percent amid widespread negative pricing intervals

Regional average prices ranged from $45.20/MWh in Queensland to $62.50/MWh in New South Wales. Negative pricing was prevalent across the southern regions, with Tasmania, Victoria, and South Australia all exceeding 100 negative intervals. Despite these lows, South Australia recorded the highest single interval price of $129.20/MWh during the evening peak.

Coal remained the primary generation source at 52.8%, followed by rooftop solar at 14.8% and utility solar at 10.8%. The combined renewable share averaged 41.6% for the day, supported by 16,005 MWh of battery discharge. Hydro and wind contributed 6.6% and 9.1% respectively, while gas generation was limited to 3.3%.

Aggregate demand was highest in New South Wales, peaking at 8,951 MW at 18:30. Queensland and Victoria followed with peaks of 7,005 MW and 6,565 MW respectively. Total emissions for the period reached 320,309 tonnes of CO2, representing a 2.3% increase compared to the same day last week.

FCAS costs were dominated by regulation services, with Lower Regulation in Tasmania reaching a peak price of $64.00/MWh. Raise Regulation costs in New South Wales totalled $32,459 for the day. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into South Australia and from Queensland into New South Wales via the Terranora interconnector.

Today · Queensland is forecast to reach a peak price of $319.04/MWh at 19:30, while other regions expect peaks between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average price sits 25.4% below the 7-day mean, breaking a three-day trend of rising prices. This decline occurred despite a year-on-year emissions increase, driven by the coincidence of high solar availability and over 400 total negative price intervals across the NEM.

NSW $62VIC $54QLD $45SA $59TAS $48
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $30 $60 $90 $120 -$20 $15 $50 $85 $120 -$10 $20 $50 $80 $110 -$20 $18 $55 $93 $130 -$20 $13 $45 $78 $110 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $62 $66 -$8 $119 26 0
QLD $45 $51 -$8 $105 82 0
SA $59 $80 -$32 $129 110 0
VIC $54 $60 -$34 $119 108 0
TAS $48 $50 -$35 $107 106 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,951MW
18:30
Trough
4,749MW
14:15
Energy
337.9GWh
QLD
Peak
7,005MW
18:25
Trough
3,850MW
11:05
Energy
259.4GWh
SA
Peak
1,572MW
19:45
Trough
8MW
13:30
Energy
49.3GWh
VIC
Peak
6,565MW
18:50
Trough
3,169MW
14:30
Energy
243.9GWh
TAS
Peak
1,136MW
18:20
Trough
775MW
13:05
Energy
45.4GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,1660$1029 Aug, 16:20
LOWERREG$1,4090$729 Aug, 14:35
LOWER60SEC$2060$029 Aug, 13:35
LOWER6SEC$1120$029 Aug, 13:35
LOWER5MIN$980$029 Aug, 15:55
RAISE60SEC$910$029 Aug, 04:30
RAISE6SEC$890$029 Aug, 06:50
RAISE5MIN$270$029 Aug, 06:50
Total$5,197

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,3090$1029 Aug, 16:20
LOWERREG$4,4910$729 Aug, 14:35
LOWER60SEC$3250$029 Aug, 13:35
RAISE6SEC$3240$029 Aug, 06:50
RAISE60SEC$2700$029 Aug, 04:30
LOWER6SEC$1430$029 Aug, 13:35
LOWER5MIN$820$029 Aug, 15:55
RAISE5MIN$320$029 Aug, 06:50
Total$11,976

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,2520$1029 Aug, 16:20
LOWERREG$4,4270$729 Aug, 14:35
LOWER60SEC$2920$029 Aug, 13:35
RAISE60SEC$2710$029 Aug, 04:30
RAISE6SEC$2190$029 Aug, 06:50
LOWER6SEC$1590$029 Aug, 13:35
LOWER5MIN$1030$029 Aug, 15:55
RAISE5MIN$880$029 Aug, 06:50
Total$14,809

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,8690$1029 Aug, 16:20
LOWERREG$3,4370$729 Aug, 14:35
RAISE6SEC$2630$029 Aug, 06:50
LOWER60SEC$2600$029 Aug, 13:35
RAISE60SEC$2590$029 Aug, 04:30
LOWER6SEC$1550$029 Aug, 13:35
LOWER5MIN$1080$029 Aug, 15:55
RAISE5MIN$580$029 Aug, 06:50
Total$8,408

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$20,8670$6429 Aug, 15:05
RAISEREG$9,8640$629 Aug, 11:10
RAISE6SEC$5310$329 Aug, 08:00
LOWER6SEC$3880$1729 Aug, 16:50
RAISE60SEC$2880$029 Aug, 08:00
LOWER60SEC$670$129 Aug, 08:15
RAISE5MIN$160$029 Aug, 08:00
LOWER5MIN$10$029 Aug, 15:55
Total$32,021

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,476 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $89/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,296 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $80/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 821 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $91/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 341 MW at 18:30 as SA spot hit $97/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,933 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $82/MWh.

Discharged
6,382MWh
peak 1,476 MW · 18:30
Charged
7,214MWh
peak 1,284 MW
Net
-832MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
88%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,982MWh
peak 1,296 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,205MWh
peak 1,164 MW
Net
-1,222MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
80%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,139MWh
peak 821 MW · 18:30
Charged
3,928MWh
peak 975 MW
Net
-789MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
80%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,502MWh
peak 341 MW · 18:30
Charged
1,734MWh
peak 540 MW
Net
-232MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
87%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
16,005MWh
peak 3,933 MW · 18:30
Charged
19,081MWh
peak 3,561 MW
Net
-3,076MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
84%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,382MWh
-832
#2QLD
4,982MWh
-1,222
#3VIC
3,139MWh
-789
#4SA
1,502MWh
-232

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 55.3%
  • Coal55.3% · 113.7 GWh
  • Gas1.8% · 3.7 GWh
  • Hydro7.0% · 14.4 GWh
  • Wind3.2% · 6.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)14.2% · 29.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.4% · 31.6 GWh
  • Battery3.1% · 6.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.3%
  • Coal58.3% · 113.0 GWh
  • Gas1.6% · 3.1 GWh
  • Hydro1.6% · 3.1 GWh
  • Wind9.3% · 18.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.0% · 23.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.6% · 28.2 GWh
  • Battery2.6% · 5.0 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 66.0%
  • Coal66.0% · 96.1 GWh
  • Gas0.8% · 1.2 GWh
  • Hydro2.3% · 3.4 GWh
  • Wind8.6% · 12.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.6% · 11.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.6% · 18.3 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 3.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 32.3%
  • Gas26.0% · 8.9 GWh
  • Wind29.5% · 10.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.8% · 2.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)32.3% · 11.1 GWh
  • Battery4.4% · 1.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.6%
  • Gas9.5% · 3.1 GWh
  • Hydro60.6% · 19.4 GWh
  • Wind25.4% · 8.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.5% · 1.4 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.9 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.3 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:007.0 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.2 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.7 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
38.7%
VIC · Daily renewable share
32.8%
QLD · Daily renewable share
46.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
66.8%
TAS · Daily renewable share
103.0%
Peak instantaneous
71.3%
at 13:30
Daily NEM-wide share
41.6%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    38.7%
  • VIC
    32.8%
  • QLD
    46.5%
  • SA
    66.8%
  • TAS
    103.0%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +44.8 GWh 0
NSW1-QLD1 −32.7 GWh 0
VIC1-NSW1 −4.8 GWh 30
V-SA −9.9 GWh 16
T-V-MNSP1 +7.7 GWh 1

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
320.3k tCO₂
▲ 2.3% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 100.4k tCO₂ 0.481 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 99.9k tCO₂ 0.508 tCO₂/MWh
SA 4.1k tCO₂ 0.115 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 114.1k tCO₂ 0.781 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.059 tCO₂/MWh