NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Friday 28 August 2026

Trading day 2026-08-28

Market Snapshot

Queensland price volatility persists as South Australia records highest regional average

Regional average prices ranged from $57.60/MWh in Queensland to $89.70/MWh in South Australia, with Queensland recording 68 negative price intervals and a minimum of -$10.30/MWh. New South Wales also saw 10 negative intervals, while prices in Victoria and Tasmania remained positive throughout the day with maximums reaching $141.60/MWh and $127.20/MWh respectively.

Evening demand peaks occurred between 18:00 and 19:00 across most regions, led by New South Wales at 9,477 MW and Victoria at 7,512 MW. Total system energy consumption was supported by a 39.3% renewable share, comprising 13.6% rooftop solar, 10.6% utility solar, 8.1% wind, and 7.2% hydro generation.

Batteries contributed 2.9% of the generation mix with 18,723 MWh discharged, though the fleet remained a net consumer with -2,998 MWh of net flow. FCAS costs were highest for Regulation services, with Raise Regulation in New South Wales totaling $34,624 and Lower Regulation in Tasmania reaching $16,444.

Total emissions reached 347,667 tonnes of CO2, representing a 1.9% increase compared to the same day last week. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from New South Wales to Queensland via the MNSP1 link, while Tasmania exported a net 12,681 MWh to Victoria.

Today · Predispatch forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, while other regions expect maximums between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $76.80/MWh sits 3% above the 7-day average, breaking a three-day trend of rising prices that peaked at $104.10/MWh. This price correction occurred despite a high 68.8% instantaneous renewable peak and significant negative pricing in Queensland, as coal and gas still provided 57.7% of total energy.

NSW $74VIC $79QLD $58SA $90TAS $70
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $35 $70 $105 $140 $0 $38 $75 $113 $150 -$10 $23 $55 $88 $120 $0 $43 $85 $128 $170 $0 $33 $65 $98 $130 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $74 $80 -$9 $135 10 0
QLD $58 $64 -$10 $119 68 0
SA $90 $100 $11 $198 0 0
VIC $79 $80 $4 $142 0 0
TAS $70 $71 $4 $127 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
9,477MW
18:00
Trough
4,717MW
13:00
Energy
359.9GWh
QLD
Peak
7,317MW
18:25
Trough
3,855MW
11:05
Energy
271.4GWh
SA
Peak
1,716MW
19:00
Trough
263MW
13:05
Energy
59.1GWh
VIC
Peak
7,512MW
18:25
Trough
4,817MW
04:05
Energy
296.2GWh
TAS
Peak
1,255MW
07:45
Trough
824MW
12:50
Energy
49.1GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,4190$1228 Aug, 08:20
LOWERREG$9160$1428 Aug, 15:25
LOWER5MIN$1250$028 Aug, 15:15
RAISE6SEC$1090$028 Aug, 07:15
LOWER60SEC$1080$028 Aug, 14:35
RAISE60SEC$890$028 Aug, 07:20
LOWER6SEC$490$028 Aug, 15:20
RAISE5MIN$300$028 Aug, 07:30
Total$4,845

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,5470$1228 Aug, 08:20
LOWERREG$3,9740$1428 Aug, 15:25
RAISE6SEC$3130$028 Aug, 07:45
LOWER60SEC$2360$028 Aug, 14:35
RAISE60SEC$2220$028 Aug, 19:35
LOWER5MIN$1510$028 Aug, 15:15
LOWER6SEC$810$028 Aug, 15:20
RAISE5MIN$280$028 Aug, 07:45
Total$13,552

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,8060$1228 Aug, 08:20
LOWERREG$3,1240$1428 Aug, 15:25
LOWER60SEC$3280$028 Aug, 14:35
RAISE6SEC$2070$028 Aug, 07:15
RAISE60SEC$2000$028 Aug, 07:20
LOWER6SEC$1020$028 Aug, 15:20
LOWER5MIN$970$028 Aug, 15:15
RAISE5MIN$730$028 Aug, 07:30
Total$10,937

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,5560$1228 Aug, 08:20
LOWERREG$3,5150$1428 Aug, 15:25
RAISE6SEC$2570$028 Aug, 07:15
LOWER60SEC$2450$028 Aug, 14:35
RAISE60SEC$2260$028 Aug, 07:20
LOWER5MIN$1670$028 Aug, 15:15
LOWER6SEC$1280$028 Aug, 15:20
RAISE5MIN$530$028 Aug, 07:30
Total$11,149

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,2960$528 Aug, 08:35
LOWERREG$4,9150$3628 Aug, 13:00
LOWER6SEC$7460$3528 Aug, 13:00
RAISE60SEC$4140$328 Aug, 08:35
RAISE6SEC$3200$328 Aug, 08:35
LOWER60SEC$970$128 Aug, 09:05
LOWER5MIN$180$028 Aug, 14:55
RAISE5MIN$90$028 Aug, 08:35
Total$15,814

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,436 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $121/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,284 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $107/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 789 MW at 18:00 as VIC spot hit $131/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 239 MW at 19:30 as SA spot hit $118/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,651 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $111/MWh.

Discharged
6,898MWh
peak 1,436 MW · 18:30
Charged
8,310MWh
peak 1,233 MW
Net
-1,412MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
83%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,996MWh
peak 1,284 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,836MWh
peak 1,086 MW
Net
-840MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
88%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,531MWh
peak 789 MW · 18:00
Charged
4,781MWh
peak 640 MW
Net
-250MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
95%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,298MWh
peak 239 MW · 19:30
Charged
1,794MWh
peak 457 MW
Net
-496MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
72%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
18,723MWh
peak 3,651 MW · 18:30
Charged
21,721MWh
peak 3,146 MW
Net
-2,998MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
86%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$150$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,898MWh
-1,412
#2QLD
5,996MWh
-840
#3VIC
4,531MWh
-250
#4SA
1,298MWh
-496

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 56.0%
  • Coal56.0% · 123.2 GWh
  • Gas1.4% · 3.0 GWh
  • Hydro6.9% · 15.2 GWh
  • Wind2.9% · 6.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)13.6% · 29.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)16.1% · 35.4 GWh
  • Battery3.1% · 6.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.5%
  • Coal58.5% · 118.9 GWh
  • Gas3.3% · 6.7 GWh
  • Hydro1.4% · 2.7 GWh
  • Wind6.1% · 12.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.7% · 23.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)15.8% · 32.0 GWh
  • Battery3.0% · 6.0 GWh
  • Other0.4% · 0.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 61.8%
  • Coal61.8% · 99.6 GWh
  • Gas4.3% · 7.0 GWh
  • Hydro3.1% · 5.0 GWh
  • Wind13.9% · 22.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)7.5% · 12.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)6.6% · 10.7 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 4.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 47.4%
  • Gas47.4% · 17.3 GWh
  • Wind12.7% · 4.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.0% · 3.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)26.3% · 9.6 GWh
  • Battery3.6% · 1.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 66.7%
  • Gas8.4% · 3.1 GWh
  • Hydro66.7% · 24.2 GWh
  • Wind20.8% · 7.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.0% · 1.5 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.4 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.9 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.6 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.0 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
38.1%
VIC · Daily renewable share
32.5%
QLD · Daily renewable share
43.3%
SA · Daily renewable share
46.1%
TAS · Daily renewable share
110.9%
Peak instantaneous
68.8%
at 10:45
Daily NEM-wide share
39.3%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    38.1%
  • VIC
    32.5%
  • QLD
    43.3%
  • SA
    46.1%
  • TAS
    110.9%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +40.5 GWh 0
NSW1-QLD1 −26.9 GWh 18
VIC1-NSW1 −10.2 GWh 7
V-SA −11.4 GWh 25
T-V-MNSP1 +12.7 GWh 0

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
347.7k tCO₂
▲ 1.9% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 108.3k tCO₂ 0.485 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 107.0k tCO₂ 0.518 tCO₂/MWh
SA 8.2k tCO₂ 0.222 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 122.3k tCO₂ 0.750 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.052 tCO₂/MWh