NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Thursday 20 August 2026

Trading day 2026-08-20

Market Snapshot

Queensland prices decouple as regional averages rise across the National Electricity Market

Regional price averages ranged from $47.70/MWh in Queensland to $77.30/MWh in South Australia. Victoria and Tasmania saw brief price spikes exceeding $370/MWh during the evening peak, while New South Wales remained the most stable with a maximum of $97.60/MWh. Total system demand peaked at 18:30, led by New South Wales at 9,765 MW and Queensland at 7,723 MW.

Renewable generation was dominated by wind at 18.6% and combined solar at 17.9% of the total mix. Hydro contributed 6.3%, while gas and battery discharge provided 2.3% and 2.7% respectively. Batteries discharged 17,896 MWh to the grid, resulting in a net consumption of 2,929 MWh after charging cycles.

FCAS costs were concentrated in the Raise Regulation service, totaling $38,530 with peak prices occurring in Tasmania. Total emissions fell by 5.2% compared to the same day last week, reaching 338,297 tonnes of CO2. Interconnector flows showed significant exports from Queensland to New South Wales totaling 51,266 MWh.

Today · Predispatch forecasts indicate a price peak of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions peaking between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $64.40/MWh sits 8.4% above the 7-day average, breaking a three-day trend of sub-$52 prices. This shift occurred as Queensland decoupled from the southern regions through persistent negative pricing, even as high battery dispatch and a 67.1% instantaneous renewable peak failed to suppress the broader NEM price lift.

NSW $62VIC $67QLD $48SA $77TAS $64
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $28 $55 $83 $110 $0 $85 $170 $255 $340 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 $0 $80 $160 $240 $320 $0 $70 $140 $210 $280 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $62 $64 $13 $98 0 0
QLD $48 $52 -$5 $91 56 0
SA $77 $84 -$1 $375 6 0
VIC $67 $70 $0 $406 0 0
TAS $64 $66 $0 $374 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
9,765MW
18:30
Trough
6,626MW
12:55
Energy
381.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,723MW
18:40
Trough
4,490MW
13:00
Energy
289.7GWh
SA
Peak
1,913MW
19:10
Trough
364MW
13:20
Energy
63.2GWh
VIC
Peak
7,362MW
18:35
Trough
4,703MW
14:15
Energy
285.8GWh
TAS
Peak
1,309MW
18:30
Trough
908MW
13:30
Energy
53.2GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,1630$1420 Aug, 15:45
LOWERREG$4060$520 Aug, 09:50
RAISE60SEC$1980$020 Aug, 07:35
LOWER60SEC$1550$120 Aug, 13:20
RAISE6SEC$1510$020 Aug, 07:30
LOWER5MIN$640$020 Aug, 15:55
RAISE5MIN$630$020 Aug, 07:10
LOWER6SEC$470$020 Aug, 11:10
Total$6,247

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,6510$1420 Aug, 15:45
LOWERREG$2,0530$520 Aug, 09:50
LOWER60SEC$4540$120 Aug, 13:20
RAISE60SEC$4070$020 Aug, 07:05
RAISE6SEC$3960$020 Aug, 07:30
LOWER6SEC$1440$020 Aug, 11:10
LOWER5MIN$1130$020 Aug, 15:55
RAISE5MIN$570$020 Aug, 07:10
Total$11,276

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,5680$1420 Aug, 15:45
LOWERREG$1,8850$520 Aug, 09:50
RAISE60SEC$4400$020 Aug, 07:35
RAISE6SEC$3710$020 Aug, 07:30
LOWER60SEC$3700$120 Aug, 13:20
RAISE5MIN$1180$020 Aug, 07:10
LOWER6SEC$1120$020 Aug, 11:10
LOWER5MIN$1000$020 Aug, 15:55
Total$12,965

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,1270$1420 Aug, 15:45
LOWERREG$3,2540$520 Aug, 09:50
LOWER60SEC$1,4120$1320 Aug, 13:30
RAISE6SEC$1,0550$120 Aug, 07:25
RAISE60SEC$1,0270$120 Aug, 07:25
LOWER6SEC$2940$120 Aug, 13:25
RAISE5MIN$2510$120 Aug, 10:45
LOWER5MIN$1430$020 Aug, 09:30
Total$13,563

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,0200$2420 Aug, 08:15
LOWERREG$3,6910$820 Aug, 14:05
RAISE6SEC$3670$320 Aug, 10:35
RAISE60SEC$3650$320 Aug, 10:35
LOWER6SEC$2430$820 Aug, 16:05
LOWER60SEC$910$120 Aug, 13:20
RAISE5MIN$200$020 Aug, 10:35
LOWER5MIN$50$020 Aug, 11:00
Total$14,804

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,042 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $82/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,058 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $79/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,082 MW at 19:30 as VIC spot hit $78/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 412 MW at 08:00 as SA spot hit $113/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,116 MW at 19:30 as TAS spot hit $74/MWh.

Discharged
5,292MWh
peak 1,042 MW · 18:30
Charged
7,482MWh
peak 1,576 MW
Net
-2,190MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
71%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,570MWh
peak 1,058 MW · 18:30
Charged
5,741MWh
peak 1,289 MW
Net
-171MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
97%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,323MWh
peak 1,082 MW · 19:30
Charged
5,475MWh
peak 1,119 MW
Net
-152MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
97%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,710MWh
peak 412 MW · 08:00
Charged
2,126MWh
peak 482 MW
Net
-416MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
80%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
17,896MWh
peak 3,116 MW · 19:30
Charged
20,825MWh
peak 3,866 MW
Net
-2,929MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
86%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100$0$100$200$300$40023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,570MWh
-171
#2VIC
5,323MWh
-152
#3NSW
5,292MWh
-2,190
#4SA
1,710MWh
-416

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 62.1%
  • Coal62.1% · 125.8 GWh
  • Gas0.6% · 1.2 GWh
  • Hydro2.8% · 5.6 GWh
  • Wind12.4% · 25.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.3% · 16.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.2% · 22.8 GWh
  • Battery2.6% · 5.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 57.1%
  • Coal57.1% · 116.5 GWh
  • Gas1.3% · 2.7 GWh
  • Hydro1.7% · 3.5 GWh
  • Wind12.3% · 25.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.1% · 24.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.3% · 25.0 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.6 GWh
  • Other0.5% · 1.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 55.6%
  • Coal55.6% · 99.9 GWh
  • Gas0.1% · 0.1 GWh
  • Hydro4.0% · 7.2 GWh
  • Wind28.5% · 51.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.2% · 3.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)6.7% · 12.0 GWh
  • Battery3.0% · 5.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 37.2%
  • Gas27.8% · 9.9 GWh
  • Wind37.2% · 13.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)6.8% · 2.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)23.4% · 8.4 GWh
  • Battery4.8% · 1.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 73.5%
  • Gas2.9% · 1.0 GWh
  • Hydro73.5% · 24.8 GWh
  • Wind20.9% · 7.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.7% · 0.9 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.1 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.0 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.4 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.3 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.7 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
32.6%
VIC · Daily renewable share
47.5%
QLD · Daily renewable share
46.7%
SA · Daily renewable share
60.5%
TAS · Daily renewable share
107.3%
Peak instantaneous
67.1%
at 13:00
Daily NEM-wide share
43.9%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    32.6%
  • VIC
    47.5%
  • QLD
    46.7%
  • SA
    60.5%
  • TAS
    107.3%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +36.7 GWh 0 —
NSW1-QLD1 −51.3 GWh 0 —
VIC1-NSW1 +27.7 GWh 10 —
V-SA −14.1 GWh 16 —
T-V-MNSP1 +6.2 GWh 3 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
338.3k tCO₂
▼ 5.2% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 109.9k tCO₂ 0.536 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 103.4k tCO₂ 0.501 tCO₂/MWh
SA 4.6k tCO₂ 0.125 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 119.7k tCO₂ 0.659 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 578 tCO₂ 0.017 tCO₂/MWh