NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Tuesday 18 August 2026

Trading day 2026-08-18

Market Snapshot

Southern regions record deep negative pricing as renewable share reaches seventy percent

Average prices across the southern states remained subdued, with Victoria and South Australia recording averages of $9.40/MWh and $11.20/MWh respectively. These regions saw extensive negative pricing, with South Australia clearing below zero for 254 intervals. In contrast, New South Wales maintained the highest regional average of $51.60/MWh and a peak demand of 10,495 MW at 18:35.

Renewables contributed 47.8% of the total energy mix, supported by a combined solar contribution of 18.3% and wind at 24.6%. Coal provided 49.5% of generation while gas remained minimal at 1.3%. Batteries discharged 15,157 MWh throughout the day, representing 2.3% of the total generation mix.

FCAS costs were led by regulation services, with Raise Regulation totaling $34,405 and Lower Regulation reaching $23,416. No price cap intervals or significant FCAS spikes were recorded across the five regions. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Victoria into New South Wales and South Australia to balance regional demand variations.

Today · Predispatch forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions peaking between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $30.70/MWh sits 53.4% below the weekly average, breaking a five-day run of prices above $50/MWh. This sharp decline coincides with a high renewable penetration and significant battery activity, resulting in over 230 negative intervals in both Victoria and South Australia.

NSW $52VIC $9QLD $43SA $11TAS $12
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $52 $53 -$1 $99 6 0
QLD $43 $46 -$1 $85 6 0
SA $11 $13 -$10 $56 254 0
VIC $9 $11 -$8 $58 234 0
TAS $12 $14 -$8 $58 182 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,495MW
18:35
Trough
7,108MW
03:40
Energy
405.2GWh
QLD
Peak
7,907MW
18:30
Trough
4,702MW
10:40
Energy
294.2GWh
SA
Peak
1,820MW
19:05
Trough
861MW
14:15
Energy
67.1GWh
VIC
Peak
7,385MW
07:35
Trough
4,090MW
14:00
Energy
267.0GWh
TAS
Peak
1,306MW
07:40
Trough
817MW
12:25
Energy
50.5GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,6360$1918 Aug, 16:15
LOWERREG$8590$718 Aug, 14:10
RAISE60SEC$3150$018 Aug, 08:15
RAISE6SEC$2440$018 Aug, 07:35
LOWER60SEC$2030$118 Aug, 14:35
LOWER5MIN$880$018 Aug, 14:40
RAISE5MIN$830$018 Aug, 20:05
LOWER6SEC$400$018 Aug, 14:40
Total$7,469

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,0030$1918 Aug, 16:15
LOWERREG$3,2650$718 Aug, 14:10
LOWER60SEC$3290$118 Aug, 14:35
RAISE60SEC$2060$018 Aug, 08:15
RAISE6SEC$1800$018 Aug, 07:35
LOWER5MIN$820$018 Aug, 14:40
LOWER6SEC$390$018 Aug, 14:40
RAISE5MIN$330$018 Aug, 20:05
Total$11,136

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,4600$1918 Aug, 16:15
LOWERREG$2,9930$718 Aug, 14:10
RAISE60SEC$7880$018 Aug, 08:15
RAISE6SEC$5530$018 Aug, 07:35
LOWER60SEC$4200$118 Aug, 14:35
RAISE5MIN$2350$018 Aug, 20:05
LOWER5MIN$1160$018 Aug, 14:40
LOWER6SEC$540$018 Aug, 14:40
Total$12,620

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,0850$1918 Aug, 16:15
LOWERREG$4,7070$718 Aug, 14:10
LOWER60SEC$5010$118 Aug, 14:35
RAISE60SEC$4830$018 Aug, 08:15
RAISE6SEC$4440$018 Aug, 07:35
LOWER5MIN$1910$018 Aug, 14:40
RAISE5MIN$1170$018 Aug, 20:05
LOWER6SEC$760$018 Aug, 14:40
Total$12,603

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$11,5910$2818 Aug, 16:35
RAISEREG$8,2210$518 Aug, 09:40
RAISE6SEC$8700$118 Aug, 06:35
RAISE60SEC$8590$018 Aug, 04:05
LOWER6SEC$1700$118 Aug, 17:25
LOWER60SEC$1630$118 Aug, 14:35
RAISE5MIN$310$018 Aug, 06:20
LOWER5MIN$180$018 Aug, 15:35
Total$21,923

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,384 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $69/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,246 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $74/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 764 MW at 08:00 as VIC spot hit $41/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 414 MW at 18:30 as SA spot hit $33/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,610 MW at 18:00 as TAS spot hit $40/MWh.

Discharged
5,820MWh
peak 1,384 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,649MWh
peak 1,308 MW
Net
-829MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
88%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,931MWh
peak 1,246 MW · 18:00
Charged
5,687MWh
peak 1,147 MW
Net
-755MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
87%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
2,798MWh
peak 764 MW · 08:00
Charged
5,396MWh
peak 870 MW
Net
-2,598MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
52%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,608MWh
peak 414 MW · 18:30
Charged
2,065MWh
peak 477 MW
Net
-457MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
78%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
15,157MWh
peak 3,610 MW · 18:00
Charged
19,796MWh
peak 3,126 MW
Net
-4,639MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
77%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$10023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
5,820MWh
-829
#2QLD
4,931MWh
-755
#3VIC
2,798MWh
-2,598
#4SA
1,608MWh
-457

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 59.1%
  • Coal59.1% · 125.2 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro3.1% · 6.6 GWh
  • Wind12.8% · 27.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.0% · 23.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.7% · 22.7 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 56.7%
  • Coal56.7% · 112.6 GWh
  • Gas1.7% · 3.3 GWh
  • Hydro1.9% · 3.7 GWh
  • Wind14.1% · 28.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.0% · 21.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.2% · 24.2 GWh
  • Battery2.5% · 4.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 50.1%
  • Coal50.1% · 92.4 GWh
  • Hydro0.2% · 0.4 GWh
  • Wind36.5% · 67.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.8% · 5.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)8.8% · 16.2 GWh
  • Battery1.5% · 2.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 76.5%
  • Gas2.3% · 1.1 GWh
  • Wind76.5% · 35.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.8% · 1.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.9% · 6.8 GWh
  • Battery3.5% · 1.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 59.5%
  • Gas11.6% · 3.1 GWh
  • Hydro59.5% · 15.6 GWh
  • Wind25.0% · 6.6 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)3.8% · 1.0 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.1 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.0 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.0 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.5 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.6 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
35.6%
VIC · Daily renewable share
55.1%
QLD · Daily renewable share
45.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
102.9%
TAS · Daily renewable share
76.0%
Peak instantaneous
70.2%
at 11:20
Daily NEM-wide share
47.8%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    35.6%
  • VIC
    55.1%
  • QLD
    45.5%
  • SA
    102.9%
  • TAS
    76.0%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +26.1 GWh 14 —
NSW1-QLD1 −51.6 GWh 0 —
VIC1-NSW1 +32.6 GWh 0 —
V-SA +10.1 GWh 13 —
T-V-MNSP1 −11.9 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
322.3k tCO₂
▼ 2.6% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 109.5k tCO₂ 0.510 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 100.4k tCO₂ 0.500 tCO₂/MWh
SA 421 tCO₂ 0.009 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 110.1k tCO₂ 0.599 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.071 tCO₂/MWh