NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 16 August 2026

Trading day 2026-08-16

Market Snapshot

Regional prices soften as Queensland records over one hundred negative intervals

Regional average prices ranged from 42.30 dollars in Queensland to 57.20 dollars in New South Wales. While New South Wales avoided negative pricing entirely, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania each recorded over 80 negative intervals during the day. Maximum prices remained capped below 93 dollars across all regions, indicating a day of low price volatility despite the high frequency of negative bids.

Total system demand peaked in the evening between 18:05 and 19:10, led by New South Wales at 10,162 megawatts. Coal remained the primary generation source at 54% of the mix, while combined solar and wind contributed 35.3%. Hydro generation provided a further 6.7% of the total energy share as the renewable portion averaged 42.6% for the 24-hour period.

Batteries discharged 12,994 megawatt hours into the grid, though the sector remained a net consumer with a negative 6,898 megawatt hour balance. FCAS costs were relatively subdued, with the highest single service cost being 35,285 dollars for Raise Regulation in New South Wales. Total daily emissions were stable, falling by 0.1% compared to the same day last week to 334,041 tonnes of carbon dioxide.

Today · Predispatch forecasts suggest a peak price of 319.04 dollars per megawatt hour in Queensland at 19:30 tonight.

Why it matters · The daily average of 48.70 dollars breaks a three-day run of rising prices and sits significantly below the 67.63 dollar seven-day average. This price softening occurred despite coal maintaining a majority share, as high negative interval counts in four regions coincided with a robust 67.7% peak renewable penetration.

NSW $57VIC $45QLD $42SA $45TAS $44
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $57 $59 $17 $90 0 0
QLD $42 $47 -$5 $86 102 0
SA $45 $54 -$20 $92 86 0
VIC $45 $50 -$38 $91 84 0
TAS $44 $46 -$10 $88 84 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,162MW
18:25
Trough
6,737MW
10:35
Energy
380.0GWh
QLD
Peak
7,321MW
18:20
Trough
3,786MW
11:05
Energy
262.6GWh
SA
Peak
1,886MW
19:10
Trough
489MW
12:40
Energy
59.7GWh
VIC
Peak
7,090MW
18:50
Trough
3,419MW
13:30
Energy
256.5GWh
TAS
Peak
1,316MW
18:05
Trough
878MW
13:05
Energy
52.8GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,3230$1116 Aug, 09:40
LOWERREG$1,1010$716 Aug, 15:50
LOWER60SEC$3060$116 Aug, 14:25
LOWER5MIN$1480$016 Aug, 15:30
RAISE6SEC$1360$016 Aug, 04:45
RAISE60SEC$1090$016 Aug, 04:10
LOWER6SEC$600$116 Aug, 13:45
RAISE5MIN$330$016 Aug, 07:05
Total$9,218

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,0060$1116 Aug, 09:40
LOWERREG$4,6130$716 Aug, 15:50
LOWER60SEC$5010$116 Aug, 14:25
RAISE6SEC$2200$016 Aug, 04:45
LOWER5MIN$1830$016 Aug, 15:30
RAISE60SEC$1720$016 Aug, 04:10
LOWER6SEC$1460$116 Aug, 13:45
RAISE5MIN$220$016 Aug, 07:05
Total$12,862

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,8710$1116 Aug, 09:40
LOWERREG$3,8550$716 Aug, 15:50
RAISE6SEC$2570$016 Aug, 04:45
RAISE60SEC$2350$016 Aug, 04:10
LOWER60SEC$2180$116 Aug, 14:25
RAISE5MIN$740$016 Aug, 07:05
LOWER5MIN$710$016 Aug, 15:30
LOWER6SEC$620$116 Aug, 13:45
Total$12,644

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,3240$1116 Aug, 09:40
LOWERREG$3,1060$716 Aug, 15:50
LOWER60SEC$4140$116 Aug, 14:25
RAISE6SEC$2690$016 Aug, 04:45
RAISE60SEC$2220$016 Aug, 04:10
LOWER5MIN$1500$016 Aug, 15:30
LOWER6SEC$1350$116 Aug, 13:45
RAISE5MIN$440$016 Aug, 07:05
Total$8,664

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,7620$416 Aug, 04:05
LOWERREG$5,0910$5916 Aug, 14:40
RAISE6SEC$6560$217 Aug, 01:50
RAISE60SEC$6440$117 Aug, 01:55
LOWER6SEC$3930$417 Aug, 03:50
LOWER60SEC$1560$116 Aug, 14:25
RAISE5MIN$470$016 Aug, 07:25
LOWER5MIN$170$016 Aug, 16:05
Total$15,766

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,507 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $79/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,082 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $78/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 826 MW at 19:00 as VIC spot hit $81/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 203 MW at 18:30 as SA spot hit $87/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,582 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $76/MWh.

Discharged
4,721MWh
peak 1,507 MW · 18:30
Charged
7,745MWh
peak 1,064 MW
Net
-3,025MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
61%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,049MWh
peak 1,082 MW · 18:30
Charged
5,730MWh
peak 1,005 MW
Net
-1,681MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
71%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,270MWh
peak 826 MW · 19:00
Charged
4,557MWh
peak 1,080 MW
Net
-1,286MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
72%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
954MWh
peak 203 MW · 18:30
Charged
1,860MWh
peak 507 MW
Net
-906MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
51%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
12,994MWh
peak 3,582 MW · 18:30
Charged
19,892MWh
peak 3,229 MW
Net
-6,898MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
65%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$10023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
4,721MWh
-3,025
#2QLD
4,049MWh
-1,681
#3VIC
3,270MWh
-1,286
#4SA
954MWh
-906

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 60.3%
  • Coal60.3% · 124.3 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro4.9% · 10.2 GWh
  • Wind10.2% · 21.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.9% · 24.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.8% · 20.2 GWh
  • Battery2.3% · 4.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 56.8%
  • Coal56.8% · 109.2 GWh
  • Gas1.4% · 2.8 GWh
  • Hydro1.5% · 3.0 GWh
  • Wind12.8% · 24.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.6% · 22.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)13.7% · 26.3 GWh
  • Battery2.1% · 4.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 66.2%
  • Coal66.2% · 104.9 GWh
  • Hydro3.3% · 5.2 GWh
  • Wind11.6% · 18.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.7% · 9.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.1% · 17.6 GWh
  • Battery2.1% · 3.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 64.1%
  • Gas8.1% · 3.2 GWh
  • Wind64.1% · 25.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.5% · 1.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)20.9% · 8.3 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 1.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 79.1%
  • Gas14.1% · 4.3 GWh
  • Hydro79.1% · 23.9 GWh
  • Wind2.8% · 0.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)4.0% · 1.2 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.7 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.8 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:007.7 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.4 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.7 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
35.3%
VIC · Daily renewable share
34.1%
QLD · Daily renewable share
47.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
88.8%
TAS · Daily renewable share
85.0%
Peak instantaneous
67.7%
at 12:45
Daily NEM-wide share
42.6%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    35.3%
  • VIC
    34.1%
  • QLD
    47.5%
  • SA
    88.8%
  • TAS
    85.0%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +37.3 GWh 4
NSW1-QLD1 −35.1 GWh 12
VIC1-NSW1 +3.8 GWh 42
V-SA −284 MWh 31
T-V-MNSP1 −1.4 GWh 2

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
334.0k tCO₂
▼ 0.1% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 108.5k tCO₂ 0.522 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 96.7k tCO₂ 0.499 tCO₂/MWh
SA 1.5k tCO₂ 0.038 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 124.8k tCO₂ 0.786 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 2.5k tCO₂ 0.086 tCO₂/MWh