Sunday 16 August 2026
Trading day 2026-08-16
Regional prices soften as Queensland records over one hundred negative intervals
Regional average prices ranged from 42.30 dollars in Queensland to 57.20 dollars in New South Wales. While New South Wales avoided negative pricing entirely, South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania each recorded over 80 negative intervals during the day. Maximum prices remained capped below 93 dollars across all regions, indicating a day of low price volatility despite the high frequency of negative bids.
Total system demand peaked in the evening between 18:05 and 19:10, led by New South Wales at 10,162 megawatts. Coal remained the primary generation source at 54% of the mix, while combined solar and wind contributed 35.3%. Hydro generation provided a further 6.7% of the total energy share as the renewable portion averaged 42.6% for the 24-hour period.
Batteries discharged 12,994 megawatt hours into the grid, though the sector remained a net consumer with a negative 6,898 megawatt hour balance. FCAS costs were relatively subdued, with the highest single service cost being 35,285 dollars for Raise Regulation in New South Wales. Total daily emissions were stable, falling by 0.1% compared to the same day last week to 334,041 tonnes of carbon dioxide.
Today · Predispatch forecasts suggest a peak price of 319.04 dollars per megawatt hour in Queensland at 19:30 tonight.
Why it matters · The daily average of 48.70 dollars breaks a three-day run of rising prices and sits significantly below the 67.63 dollar seven-day average. This price softening occurred despite coal maintaining a majority share, as high negative interval counts in four regions coincided with a robust 67.7% peak renewable penetration.
Prices
Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average
| Region | Avg | VWAP | Min | Max | Neg | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | $57 | $59 | $17 | $90 | 0 | 0 |
| QLD | $42 | $47 | -$5 | $86 | 102 | 0 |
| SA | $45 | $54 | -$20 | $92 | 86 | 0 |
| VIC | $45 | $50 | -$38 | $91 | 84 | 0 |
| TAS | $44 | $46 | -$10 | $88 | 84 | 0 |
Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.
Demand
FCAS
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $7,323 | 0 | $11 | 16 Aug, 09:40 |
| LOWERREG | $1,101 | 0 | $7 | 16 Aug, 15:50 |
| LOWER60SEC | $306 | 0 | $1 | 16 Aug, 14:25 |
| LOWER5MIN | $148 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 15:30 |
| RAISE6SEC | $136 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 04:45 |
| RAISE60SEC | $109 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 04:10 |
| LOWER6SEC | $60 | 0 | $1 | 16 Aug, 13:45 |
| RAISE5MIN | $33 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 07:05 |
| Total | $9,218 | |||
Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $7,006 | 0 | $11 | 16 Aug, 09:40 |
| LOWERREG | $4,613 | 0 | $7 | 16 Aug, 15:50 |
| LOWER60SEC | $501 | 0 | $1 | 16 Aug, 14:25 |
| RAISE6SEC | $220 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 04:45 |
| LOWER5MIN | $183 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 15:30 |
| RAISE60SEC | $172 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 04:10 |
| LOWER6SEC | $146 | 0 | $1 | 16 Aug, 13:45 |
| RAISE5MIN | $22 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 07:05 |
| Total | $12,862 | |||
Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $7,871 | 0 | $11 | 16 Aug, 09:40 |
| LOWERREG | $3,855 | 0 | $7 | 16 Aug, 15:50 |
| RAISE6SEC | $257 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 04:45 |
| RAISE60SEC | $235 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 04:10 |
| LOWER60SEC | $218 | 0 | $1 | 16 Aug, 14:25 |
| RAISE5MIN | $74 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 07:05 |
| LOWER5MIN | $71 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 15:30 |
| LOWER6SEC | $62 | 0 | $1 | 16 Aug, 13:45 |
| Total | $12,644 | |||
Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $4,324 | 0 | $11 | 16 Aug, 09:40 |
| LOWERREG | $3,106 | 0 | $7 | 16 Aug, 15:50 |
| LOWER60SEC | $414 | 0 | $1 | 16 Aug, 14:25 |
| RAISE6SEC | $269 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 04:45 |
| RAISE60SEC | $222 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 04:10 |
| LOWER5MIN | $150 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 15:30 |
| LOWER6SEC | $135 | 0 | $1 | 16 Aug, 13:45 |
| RAISE5MIN | $44 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 07:05 |
| Total | $8,664 | |||
Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $8,762 | 0 | $4 | 16 Aug, 04:05 |
| LOWERREG | $5,091 | 0 | $59 | 16 Aug, 14:40 |
| RAISE6SEC | $656 | 0 | $2 | 17 Aug, 01:50 |
| RAISE60SEC | $644 | 0 | $1 | 17 Aug, 01:55 |
| LOWER6SEC | $393 | 0 | $4 | 17 Aug, 03:50 |
| LOWER60SEC | $156 | 0 | $1 | 16 Aug, 14:25 |
| RAISE5MIN | $47 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 07:25 |
| LOWER5MIN | $17 | 0 | $0 | 16 Aug, 16:05 |
| Total | $15,766 | |||
Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
Battery dispatch
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,507 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $79/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,082 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $78/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 826 MW at 19:00 as VIC spot hit $81/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 203 MW at 18:30 as SA spot hit $87/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 3,582 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $76/MWh.
Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average
Regional dispatch ranking
| Region | Discharged | Net |
|---|---|---|
#1NSW | 4,721MWh | -3,025 |
#2QLD | 4,049MWh | -1,681 |
#3VIC | 3,270MWh | -1,286 |
#4SA | 954MWh | -906 |
Generation Mix
- Coal60.3% · 124.3 GWh
- Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
- Hydro4.9% · 10.2 GWh
- Wind10.2% · 21.1 GWh
- Solar (utility)11.9% · 24.5 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)9.8% · 20.2 GWh
- Battery2.3% · 4.7 GWh
- Coal56.8% · 109.2 GWh
- Gas1.4% · 2.8 GWh
- Hydro1.5% · 3.0 GWh
- Wind12.8% · 24.5 GWh
- Solar (utility)11.6% · 22.3 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)13.7% · 26.3 GWh
- Battery2.1% · 4.0 GWh
- Coal66.2% · 104.9 GWh
- Hydro3.3% · 5.2 GWh
- Wind11.6% · 18.4 GWh
- Solar (utility)5.7% · 9.1 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)11.1% · 17.6 GWh
- Battery2.1% · 3.3 GWh
- Gas8.1% · 3.2 GWh
- Wind64.1% · 25.4 GWh
- Solar (utility)4.5% · 1.8 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)20.9% · 8.3 GWh
- Battery2.4% · 1.0 GWh
- Gas14.1% · 4.3 GWh
- Hydro79.1% · 23.9 GWh
- Wind2.8% · 0.8 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)4.0% · 1.2 GWh
Renewables
- NSW 35.3%
- VIC 34.1%
- QLD 47.5%
- SA 88.8%
- TAS 85.0%
Interconnectors
| Region (proxy) | Net flow | Direction changes | Hours at limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-Q-MNSP1 | +37.3 GWh | 4 | — |
| NSW1-QLD1 | −35.1 GWh | 12 | — |
| VIC1-NSW1 | +3.8 GWh | 42 | — |
| V-SA | −284 MWh | 31 | — |
| T-V-MNSP1 | −1.4 GWh | 2 | — |
Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).
Emissions
| NSW | 108.5k tCO₂ | 0.522 tCO₂/MWh |
| QLD | 96.7k tCO₂ | 0.499 tCO₂/MWh |
| SA | 1.5k tCO₂ | 0.038 tCO₂/MWh |
| VIC | 124.8k tCO₂ | 0.786 tCO₂/MWh |
| TAS | 2.5k tCO₂ | 0.086 tCO₂/MWh |