NEM Daily analysis

Wednesday 12 August 2026

Trading day 2026-08-12

Market Snapshot

Significant price divergence as southern regions record frequent negative intervals

Regional average prices showed a sharp north-south divide, ranging from $37.40/MWh in Victoria to $83.20/MWh in New South Wales. South Australia, Victoria, and Tasmania all experienced negative pricing, with South Australia recording the most at 118 intervals. Queensland saw the highest single price spike of the day, reaching $294.40/MWh during the evening peak.

Aggregate demand peaked across all regions between 18:00 and 18:50, led by New South Wales at 10,825 MW. Coal remained the primary generation source at 51.2%, while wind contributed a significant 24.3% to the total fuel mix. Rooftop and utility solar combined for 16.0% of daily generation, supporting a total renewable share of 45.9%.

Battery storage systems discharged 14,355 MWh into the grid, though the fleet remained a net consumer with -3,059 MWh total net flow. FCAS costs were relatively subdued, with the highest single peak price of $89.00/MWh occurring in the Tasmanian Lower Regulation service. Interconnector flows were most active between New South Wales and Queensland, moving a net 46,894 MWh southward.

Today · Forward projections indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regional peaks ranging from $61.84/MWh to $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $53.30/MWh continues a four-day trend of prices sitting well below the weekly average of $73.07/MWh. This sustained lower pricing coincides with a 14.7% weekly drop in emissions and frequent negative intervals in southern regions despite coal maintaining a majority share.

NSW $83VIC $37QLD $73SA $46TAS $44

Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS

Region	Avg	VWAP	Min	Max	Neg
NSW	$83	$86	$24	$184	0
QLD	$73	$77	$7	$294	0
SA	$46	$52	-$6	$108	118
VIC	$37	$40	-$7	$102	100
TAS	$44	$45	-$7	$95	64

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW

Peak

10,825MW

18:05

Trough

6,692MW

13:30

Energy

409.1GWh

QLD

Peak

7,741MW

18:00

Trough

4,030MW

12:05

Energy

289.1GWh

Peak

2,082MW

18:35

Trough

913MW

12:05

Energy

74.0GWh

VIC

Peak

7,841MW

18:50

Trough

4,812MW

03:30

Energy

301.0GWh

TAS

Peak

1,316MW

18:00

Trough

963MW

04:05

Energy

52.7GWh

FCAS

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$4,630	0	$11	13 Aug, 00:50
LOWERREG	$836	0	$4	12 Aug, 17:05
LOWER60SEC	$249	0	$0	12 Aug, 13:55
RAISE6SEC	$239	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:45
RAISE60SEC	$150	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:30
RAISE5MIN	$62	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:45
LOWER6SEC	$62	0	$0	12 Aug, 14:25
LOWER5MIN	$61	0	$0	12 Aug, 13:45
Total	$6,289

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$6,179	0	$11	13 Aug, 00:50
LOWERREG	$3,103	0	$4	12 Aug, 17:05
LOWER60SEC	$456	0	$0	12 Aug, 13:55
RAISE6SEC	$250	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:45
RAISE60SEC	$156	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:30
LOWER6SEC	$93	0	$0	12 Aug, 14:25
LOWER5MIN	$89	0	$0	12 Aug, 13:45
RAISE5MIN	$37	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:45
Total	$10,365

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$10,324	0	$11	13 Aug, 00:50
LOWERREG	$2,299	0	$4	12 Aug, 17:05
RAISE6SEC	$841	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:45
RAISE60SEC	$659	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:30
LOWER60SEC	$395	0	$0	12 Aug, 13:55
RAISE5MIN	$244	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:45
LOWER5MIN	$55	0	$0	12 Aug, 13:45
LOWER6SEC	$54	0	$0	12 Aug, 14:25
Total	$14,870

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
RAISEREG	$4,511	0	$11	13 Aug, 00:50
LOWERREG	$3,207	0	$4	12 Aug, 17:05
RAISE6SEC	$517	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:45
LOWER60SEC	$381	0	$0	12 Aug, 13:55
RAISE60SEC	$374	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:30
RAISE5MIN	$155	0	$0	12 Aug, 18:45
LOWER6SEC	$93	0	$0	12 Aug, 14:25
LOWER5MIN	$76	0	$0	12 Aug, 13:45
Total	$9,313

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Service	Cost	Spikes	Peak	When
LOWERREG	$14,198	0	$89	12 Aug, 04:05
RAISEREG	$9,624	0	$11	12 Aug, 17:00
RAISE6SEC	$711	0	$9	12 Aug, 17:00
RAISE60SEC	$691	0	$3	12 Aug, 17:10
LOWER6SEC	$272	0	$8	12 Aug, 08:55
LOWER60SEC	$122	0	$0	12 Aug, 07:25
RAISE5MIN	$19	0	$0	12 Aug, 17:05
LOWER5MIN	$1	0	$0	12 Aug, 13:45
Total	$25,638

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,057 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $105/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,028 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $91/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,024 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $93/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 595 MW at 08:30 as SA spot hit $85/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,320 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $84/MWh.

Discharged

4,067MWh

peak 1,057 MW · 18:30

Charged

4,065MWh

peak 765 MW

Net

+2MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

100%

discharge / charge ratio

Discharged

3,783MWh

peak 1,028 MW · 18:00

Charged

4,932MWh

peak 1,358 MW

Net

-1,150MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

77%

discharge / charge ratio

Discharged

4,535MWh

peak 1,024 MW · 18:30

Charged

5,585MWh

peak 902 MW

Net

-1,050MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

81%

discharge / charge ratio

Discharged

1,970MWh

peak 595 MW · 08:30

Charged

2,831MWh

peak 421 MW

Net

-862MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

70%

discharge / charge ratio

NEM-wide

Discharged

14,355MWh

peak 3,320 MW · 18:30

Charged

17,414MWh

peak 2,669 MW

Net

-3,059MWh

discharge − charge

Round-trip

82%

discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh

Regional dispatch ranking

Region	Discharged	Peak MW	Peak time	Net
#1VIC	4,535MWh	1,024	18:30	-1,050
#2NSW	4,067MWh	1,057	18:30	+2
#3QLD	3,783MWh	1,028	18:00	-1,150
#4SA	1,970MWh	595	08:30	-862

Generation Mix

Coal61.3% · 133.6 GWh
Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
Hydro3.8% · 8.2 GWh
Wind14.5% · 31.5 GWh
Solar (utility)7.1% · 15.4 GWh
Solar (rooftop)10.6% · 23.1 GWh
Battery1.9% · 4.1 GWh
Other0.4% · 0.8 GWh

Coal64.8% · 126.2 GWh
Gas2.6% · 5.1 GWh
Hydro1.6% · 3.0 GWh
Wind5.1% · 10.0 GWh
Solar (utility)9.8% · 19.1 GWh
Solar (rooftop)14.1% · 27.4 GWh
Battery1.9% · 3.8 GWh
Other0.1% · 0.2 GWh

Coal47.1% · 88.1 GWh
Hydro2.9% · 5.4 GWh
Wind40.5% · 75.9 GWh
Solar (utility)2.0% · 3.7 GWh
Solar (rooftop)5.1% · 9.6 GWh
Battery2.4% · 4.5 GWh

Gas5.8% · 3.0 GWh
Wind71.8% · 36.7 GWh
Solar (utility)5.2% · 2.6 GWh
Solar (rooftop)13.4% · 6.8 GWh
Battery3.9% · 2.0 GWh

Gas11.5% · 3.5 GWh
Hydro48.5% · 14.5 GWh
Wind37.1% · 11.1 GWh
Solar (rooftop)2.8% · 0.9 GWh

coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)

coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)

gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)

gashydrowindsolar rooftop

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share

34.2%

VIC · Daily renewable share

56.3%

QLD · Daily renewable share

35.0%

SA · Daily renewable share

101.2%

TAS · Daily renewable share

84.2%

Peak instantaneous

70.3%

at 11:40

Daily NEM-wide share

45.9%

By region (daily share)

NSW

34.2%
VIC

56.3%
QLD

35.0%
SA

101.2%
TAS

84.2%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy)	Net flow	Direction changes	Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1	+26.6 GWh	17	—
NSW1-QLD1	−46.9 GWh	0	—
VIC1-NSW1	+22.4 GWh	8	—
V-SA	+2.3 GWh	1	—
T-V-MNSP1	+394 MWh	0	—

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions

338.8k tCO₂

▼ 14.7% vs same day last week

Intensity by region

NSW	117.3k tCO₂	0.538 tCO₂/MWh
QLD	113.4k tCO₂	0.577 tCO₂/MWh
SA	1.4k tCO₂	0.027 tCO₂/MWh
VIC	104.7k tCO₂	0.556 tCO₂/MWh
TAS	2.1k tCO₂	0.070 tCO₂/MWh