NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Monday 3 August 2026

Trading day 2026-08-03

Market Snapshot

Victoria and Tasmania prices fall amid widespread negative intervals and renewables

Regional price dispersion was significant, with New South Wales averaging $77.40/MWh compared to the $30.70/MWh seen in Victoria. Negative pricing was prevalent across the southern regions, occurring in 186 intervals in Victoria and over 100 intervals in both South Australia and Tasmania.

Coal maintained a 51.5% share of the generation mix, while wind contributed 21.0% and combined solar reached 16.4%. Batteries discharged 17,036 MWh to the grid, though the fleet remained a net consumer with -1,018 MWh total net flow.

Evening demand peaks were concentrated between 18:00 and 18:50 across the mainland, led by 10,668 MW in New South Wales. FCAS costs were highest for the Raise Regulation service at $34,527, with the peak price of $60.00/MWh for Raise 6 Second occurring in Tasmania.

Interconnector flows saw 38,222 MWh move from Victoria to New South Wales, while 40,464 MWh flowed from New South Wales to Queensland. Total emissions for the day were 345,330 tCO2, reflecting a substantial decrease from the same day in the previous week.

Today · Predispatch forecasts a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions expected to remain below $150.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $48.80/MWh sits 39.2% below the 7-day average, continuing a volatile trend where prices have fluctuated between $20 and $171. This low-price outcome coincided with a 44.9% renewable share and 392 negative intervals across three regions, successfully suppressing the impact of the 10.6 GW evening demand peak.

NSW $77VIC $31QLD $72SA $60TAS $36
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $33 $65 $98 $130 -$10 $20 $50 $80 $110 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 -$10 $23 $55 $88 $120 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $77 $79 $32 $123 0 0
QLD $72 $75 $27 $116 0 0
SA $60 $67 -$6 $145 102 0
VIC $31 $34 -$7 $108 186 0
TAS $36 $37 -$7 $98 104 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,668MW
18:00
Trough
7,092MW
12:55
Energy
419.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,866MW
18:00
Trough
4,134MW
10:50
Energy
290.1GWh
SA
Peak
2,186MW
18:50
Trough
920MW
13:15
Energy
75.5GWh
VIC
Peak
8,078MW
18:20
Trough
4,747MW
04:15
Energy
300.7GWh
TAS
Peak
1,354MW
08:05
Trough
958MW
04:10
Energy
56.2GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,4980$173 Aug, 18:30
LOWERREG$7140$73 Aug, 14:45
RAISE6SEC$1080$03 Aug, 17:25
LOWER60SEC$1020$03 Aug, 05:30
RAISE60SEC$820$03 Aug, 20:50
LOWER5MIN$460$03 Aug, 04:15
RAISE5MIN$380$03 Aug, 07:50
LOWER6SEC$310$03 Aug, 04:15
Total$7,619

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,4280$173 Aug, 18:30
LOWERREG$2,1720$73 Aug, 14:45
LOWER60SEC$2970$03 Aug, 05:30
RAISE6SEC$2220$03 Aug, 17:25
RAISE60SEC$1130$03 Aug, 20:50
LOWER5MIN$810$03 Aug, 04:15
LOWER6SEC$570$03 Aug, 04:15
RAISE5MIN$290$03 Aug, 07:50
Total$12,398

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,8520$173 Aug, 18:30
LOWERREG$2,4240$73 Aug, 14:45
RAISE60SEC$1980$03 Aug, 20:50
RAISE6SEC$1810$03 Aug, 17:25
LOWER60SEC$1240$03 Aug, 05:30
RAISE5MIN$720$03 Aug, 07:50
LOWER5MIN$250$03 Aug, 04:15
LOWER6SEC$240$03 Aug, 04:15
Total$8,900

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISE60SEC$5,2150$253 Aug, 08:35
RAISEREG$4,5180$173 Aug, 18:30
RAISE6SEC$3,5240$73 Aug, 08:50
LOWERREG$2,6390$73 Aug, 14:45
RAISE5MIN$7620$53 Aug, 08:05
LOWER60SEC$1690$03 Aug, 05:30
LOWER6SEC$600$03 Aug, 04:15
LOWER5MIN$480$03 Aug, 04:15
Total$16,934

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,2310$133 Aug, 16:25
LOWERREG$6,0740$503 Aug, 04:25
RAISE6SEC$2,4970$603 Aug, 16:25
RAISE60SEC$5370$33 Aug, 09:10
LOWER6SEC$930$23 Aug, 04:10
LOWER60SEC$720$03 Aug, 04:05
RAISE5MIN$150$03 Aug, 04:15
LOWER5MIN$00$03 Aug, 10:35
Total$17,520

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,138 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $111/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,267 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $107/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 816 MW at 18:00 as VIC spot hit $95/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 462 MW at 08:00 as SA spot hit $56/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,339 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $89/MWh.

Discharged
5,822MWh
peak 1,138 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,506MWh
peak 1,260 MW
Net
-684MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
89%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,548MWh
peak 1,267 MW · 18:30
Charged
5,339MWh
peak 1,012 MW
Net
+209MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
104%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,953MWh
peak 816 MW · 18:00
Charged
3,662MWh
peak 457 MW
Net
+291MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
108%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,713MWh
peak 462 MW · 08:00
Charged
2,547MWh
peak 515 MW
Net
-834MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
67%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
17,036MWh
peak 3,339 MW · 18:30
Charged
18,054MWh
peak 3,026 MW
Net
-1,018MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
94%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
5,822MWh
-684
#2QLD
5,548MWh
+209
#3VIC
3,953MWh
+291
#4SA
1,713MWh
-834

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 62.1%
  • Coal62.1% · 136.1 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro3.7% · 8.2 GWh
  • Wind12.9% · 28.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.1% · 19.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.0% · 19.7 GWh
  • Battery2.7% · 5.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 62.5%
  • Coal62.5% · 122.3 GWh
  • Gas2.7% · 5.2 GWh
  • Hydro1.9% · 3.7 GWh
  • Wind7.8% · 15.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.6% · 16.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)13.0% · 25.4 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 5.5 GWh
  • Other0.7% · 1.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 47.1%
  • Coal47.1% · 92.5 GWh
  • Hydro2.9% · 5.7 GWh
  • Wind37.7% · 74.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.0% · 7.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)6.2% · 12.2 GWh
  • Battery2.0% · 4.0 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 53.9%
  • Gas17.8% · 7.0 GWh
  • Wind53.9% · 21.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)6.8% · 2.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.2% · 6.8 GWh
  • Battery4.4% · 1.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 74.4%
  • Gas9.6% · 3.0 GWh
  • Hydro74.4% · 23.6 GWh
  • Wind14.2% · 4.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.8% · 0.6 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.0 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.0 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.2 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
33.6%
VIC · Daily renewable share
59.2%
QLD · Daily renewable share
37.1%
SA · Daily renewable share
67.2%
TAS · Daily renewable share
90.4%
Peak instantaneous
67.3%
at 11:25
Daily NEM-wide share
44.9%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    33.6%
  • VIC
    59.2%
  • QLD
    37.1%
  • SA
    67.2%
  • TAS
    90.4%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +22.1 GWh 10
NSW1-QLD1 −40.5 GWh 10
VIC1-NSW1 +38.2 GWh 2
V-SA −18.9 GWh 2
T-V-MNSP1 +3.5 GWh 1

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
345.3k tCO₂
▼ 9.6% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 119.3k tCO₂ 0.537 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 109.9k tCO₂ 0.556 tCO₂/MWh
SA 3.4k tCO₂ 0.085 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 110.9k tCO₂ 0.564 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.059 tCO₂/MWh