Monday 3 August 2026
Trading day 2026-08-03
Victoria and Tasmania prices fall amid widespread negative intervals and renewables
Regional price dispersion was significant, with New South Wales averaging $77.40/MWh compared to the $30.70/MWh seen in Victoria. Negative pricing was prevalent across the southern regions, occurring in 186 intervals in Victoria and over 100 intervals in both South Australia and Tasmania.
Coal maintained a 51.5% share of the generation mix, while wind contributed 21.0% and combined solar reached 16.4%. Batteries discharged 17,036 MWh to the grid, though the fleet remained a net consumer with -1,018 MWh total net flow.
Evening demand peaks were concentrated between 18:00 and 18:50 across the mainland, led by 10,668 MW in New South Wales. FCAS costs were highest for the Raise Regulation service at $34,527, with the peak price of $60.00/MWh for Raise 6 Second occurring in Tasmania.
Interconnector flows saw 38,222 MWh move from Victoria to New South Wales, while 40,464 MWh flowed from New South Wales to Queensland. Total emissions for the day were 345,330 tCO2, reflecting a substantial decrease from the same day in the previous week.
Today · Predispatch forecasts a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions expected to remain below $150.00/MWh.
Why it matters · The daily average of $48.80/MWh sits 39.2% below the 7-day average, continuing a volatile trend where prices have fluctuated between $20 and $171. This low-price outcome coincided with a 44.9% renewable share and 392 negative intervals across three regions, successfully suppressing the impact of the 10.6 GW evening demand peak.
Prices
Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average
| Region | Avg | VWAP | Min | Max | Neg | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | $77 | $79 | $32 | $123 | 0 | 0 |
| QLD | $72 | $75 | $27 | $116 | 0 | 0 |
| SA | $60 | $67 | -$6 | $145 | 102 | 0 |
| VIC | $31 | $34 | -$7 | $108 | 186 | 0 |
| TAS | $36 | $37 | -$7 | $98 | 104 | 0 |
Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.
Demand
FCAS
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $6,498 | 0 | $17 | 3 Aug, 18:30 |
| LOWERREG | $714 | 0 | $7 | 3 Aug, 14:45 |
| RAISE6SEC | $108 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 17:25 |
| LOWER60SEC | $102 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 05:30 |
| RAISE60SEC | $82 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 20:50 |
| LOWER5MIN | $46 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:15 |
| RAISE5MIN | $38 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 07:50 |
| LOWER6SEC | $31 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:15 |
| Total | $7,619 | |||
Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $9,428 | 0 | $17 | 3 Aug, 18:30 |
| LOWERREG | $2,172 | 0 | $7 | 3 Aug, 14:45 |
| LOWER60SEC | $297 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 05:30 |
| RAISE6SEC | $222 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 17:25 |
| RAISE60SEC | $113 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 20:50 |
| LOWER5MIN | $81 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:15 |
| LOWER6SEC | $57 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:15 |
| RAISE5MIN | $29 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 07:50 |
| Total | $12,398 | |||
Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $5,852 | 0 | $17 | 3 Aug, 18:30 |
| LOWERREG | $2,424 | 0 | $7 | 3 Aug, 14:45 |
| RAISE60SEC | $198 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 20:50 |
| RAISE6SEC | $181 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 17:25 |
| LOWER60SEC | $124 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 05:30 |
| RAISE5MIN | $72 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 07:50 |
| LOWER5MIN | $25 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:15 |
| LOWER6SEC | $24 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:15 |
| Total | $8,900 | |||
Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISE60SEC | $5,215 | 0 | $25 | 3 Aug, 08:35 |
| RAISEREG | $4,518 | 0 | $17 | 3 Aug, 18:30 |
| RAISE6SEC | $3,524 | 0 | $7 | 3 Aug, 08:50 |
| LOWERREG | $2,639 | 0 | $7 | 3 Aug, 14:45 |
| RAISE5MIN | $762 | 0 | $5 | 3 Aug, 08:05 |
| LOWER60SEC | $169 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 05:30 |
| LOWER6SEC | $60 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:15 |
| LOWER5MIN | $48 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:15 |
| Total | $16,934 | |||
Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $8,231 | 0 | $13 | 3 Aug, 16:25 |
| LOWERREG | $6,074 | 0 | $50 | 3 Aug, 04:25 |
| RAISE6SEC | $2,497 | 0 | $60 | 3 Aug, 16:25 |
| RAISE60SEC | $537 | 0 | $3 | 3 Aug, 09:10 |
| LOWER6SEC | $93 | 0 | $2 | 3 Aug, 04:10 |
| LOWER60SEC | $72 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:05 |
| RAISE5MIN | $15 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 04:15 |
| LOWER5MIN | $0 | 0 | $0 | 3 Aug, 10:35 |
| Total | $17,520 | |||
Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
Battery dispatch
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,138 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $111/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,267 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $107/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 816 MW at 18:00 as VIC spot hit $95/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 462 MW at 08:00 as SA spot hit $56/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 3,339 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $89/MWh.
Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average
Regional dispatch ranking
| Region | Discharged | Net |
|---|---|---|
#1NSW | 5,822MWh | -684 |
#2QLD | 5,548MWh | +209 |
#3VIC | 3,953MWh | +291 |
#4SA | 1,713MWh | -834 |
Generation Mix
- Coal62.1% · 136.1 GWh
- Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
- Hydro3.7% · 8.2 GWh
- Wind12.9% · 28.2 GWh
- Solar (utility)9.1% · 19.9 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)9.0% · 19.7 GWh
- Battery2.7% · 5.8 GWh
- Coal62.5% · 122.3 GWh
- Gas2.7% · 5.2 GWh
- Hydro1.9% · 3.7 GWh
- Wind7.8% · 15.3 GWh
- Solar (utility)8.6% · 16.8 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)13.0% · 25.4 GWh
- Battery2.8% · 5.5 GWh
- Other0.7% · 1.3 GWh
- Coal47.1% · 92.5 GWh
- Hydro2.9% · 5.7 GWh
- Wind37.7% · 74.0 GWh
- Solar (utility)4.0% · 7.8 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)6.2% · 12.2 GWh
- Battery2.0% · 4.0 GWh
- Other0.1% · 0.3 GWh
- Gas17.8% · 7.0 GWh
- Wind53.9% · 21.2 GWh
- Solar (utility)6.8% · 2.7 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)17.2% · 6.8 GWh
- Battery4.4% · 1.7 GWh
- Gas9.6% · 3.0 GWh
- Hydro74.4% · 23.6 GWh
- Wind14.2% · 4.5 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)1.8% · 0.6 GWh
Renewables
- NSW 33.6%
- VIC 59.2%
- QLD 37.1%
- SA 67.2%
- TAS 90.4%
Interconnectors
| Region (proxy) | Net flow | Direction changes | Hours at limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-Q-MNSP1 | +22.1 GWh | 10 | — |
| NSW1-QLD1 | −40.5 GWh | 10 | — |
| VIC1-NSW1 | +38.2 GWh | 2 | — |
| V-SA | −18.9 GWh | 2 | — |
| T-V-MNSP1 | +3.5 GWh | 1 | — |
Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).
Emissions
| NSW | 119.3k tCO₂ | 0.537 tCO₂/MWh |
| QLD | 109.9k tCO₂ | 0.556 tCO₂/MWh |
| SA | 3.4k tCO₂ | 0.085 tCO₂/MWh |
| VIC | 110.9k tCO₂ | 0.564 tCO₂/MWh |
| TAS | 1.8k tCO₂ | 0.059 tCO₂/MWh |