NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Sunday 2 August 2026

Trading day 2026-08-02

Market Snapshot

Victoria records negative average price as renewable share peaks at 71 percent

Regional price outcomes showed a sharp north-south divide with New South Wales averaging $46.20/MWh and Queensland $36.10/MWh. In contrast, southern regions saw significantly lower results, including a $15.70/MWh average in South Australia and a negative $3.20/MWh in Victoria.

Demand peaked across all regions between 18:20 and 19:20, with New South Wales reaching a maximum of 10,164 MW. Total daily energy consumption was highest in New South Wales at 373.4 GWh, followed by Queensland at 274.0 GWh.

Renewables contributed 48.6% of the total generation mix, supported by 23.0% wind and 19.3% combined utility and rooftop solar. Coal remained the primary source at 48.9%, while gas generation was limited to 1.5% of the total energy share.

Batteries provided 13,653 MWh of discharge energy, representing 2.1% of the mix, and finished the day with a net load of 5,911 MWh. FCAS costs remained low across all services, with the highest single peak price reaching $50.00/MWh in Tasmania.

Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, while other regions expect maximums between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $20.30/MWh sits 77% below the weekly average, marking the lowest point in a seven-day downward trend. This price collapse coincides with a high 71% renewable peak and negative pricing in over 60% of intervals in Victoria and South Australia.

NSW $46VIC $-3QLD $36SA $16TAS $6
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
-$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$60 -$20 $20 $60 $100 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$60 -$15 $30 $75 $120 -$20 $10 $40 $70 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $46 $50 -$7 $93 68 0
QLD $36 $40 -$8 $79 82 0
SA $16 $25 -$61 $138 282 0
VIC -$3 -$1 -$60 $54 304 0
TAS $6 $7 -$15 $57 208 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,164MW
18:25
Trough
5,453MW
14:10
Energy
373.4GWh
QLD
Peak
7,496MW
18:20
Trough
3,974MW
10:45
Energy
274.0GWh
SA
Peak
2,032MW
18:55
Trough
532MW
14:30
Energy
67.1GWh
VIC
Peak
7,048MW
18:30
Trough
3,523MW
13:15
Energy
252.8GWh
TAS
Peak
1,284MW
19:20
Trough
920MW
02:10
Energy
51.5GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,4170$92 Aug, 07:40
LOWERREG$5140$62 Aug, 13:25
LOWER60SEC$3650$52 Aug, 14:10
LOWER6SEC$1070$12 Aug, 12:55
LOWER5MIN$1030$02 Aug, 13:35
RAISE6SEC$670$02 Aug, 20:35
RAISE60SEC$610$02 Aug, 20:35
RAISE5MIN$290$02 Aug, 04:05
Total$8,663

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,5550$92 Aug, 07:40
LOWERREG$2,2580$62 Aug, 13:25
LOWER60SEC$6130$52 Aug, 14:10
LOWER6SEC$1850$12 Aug, 12:55
LOWER5MIN$1240$02 Aug, 13:35
RAISE6SEC$1030$02 Aug, 20:35
RAISE60SEC$550$02 Aug, 20:35
RAISE5MIN$170$02 Aug, 04:05
Total$12,909

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,0850$92 Aug, 07:40
LOWERREG$1,5030$62 Aug, 13:25
LOWER60SEC$5210$52 Aug, 14:10
LOWER5MIN$1560$02 Aug, 13:35
RAISE60SEC$1350$02 Aug, 20:35
RAISE6SEC$1150$02 Aug, 20:35
LOWER6SEC$1110$12 Aug, 12:55
RAISE5MIN$510$02 Aug, 04:05
Total$9,676

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$3,1170$92 Aug, 07:40
LOWERREG$2,7380$62 Aug, 13:25
LOWER60SEC$5340$52 Aug, 14:10
LOWER6SEC$1820$12 Aug, 12:55
LOWER5MIN$1460$02 Aug, 13:35
RAISE6SEC$1020$02 Aug, 20:35
RAISE60SEC$760$02 Aug, 20:35
RAISE5MIN$250$02 Aug, 04:05
Total$6,920

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,7100$52 Aug, 17:00
LOWERREG$5,9290$502 Aug, 17:05
RAISE6SEC$1,2530$103 Aug, 01:40
RAISE60SEC$9180$32 Aug, 22:45
LOWER6SEC$2820$33 Aug, 02:10
LOWER60SEC$1970$52 Aug, 14:10
RAISE5MIN$250$02 Aug, 07:35
LOWER5MIN$10$02 Aug, 12:55
Total$16,315

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,346 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $74/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,009 MW at 19:00 as QLD spot hit $70/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 464 MW at 18:00 as VIC spot hit $24/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 296 MW at 18:30 as SA spot hit $101/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 2,984 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $38/MWh.

Discharged
7,277MWh
peak 1,346 MW · 18:00
Charged
8,284MWh
peak 1,502 MW
Net
-1,007MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
88%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,888MWh
peak 1,009 MW · 19:00
Charged
5,544MWh
peak 1,295 MW
Net
-1,655MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
70%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,481MWh
peak 464 MW · 18:00
Charged
3,759MWh
peak 858 MW
Net
-2,278MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
39%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,006MWh
peak 296 MW · 18:30
Charged
1,977MWh
peak 466 MW
Net
-971MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
51%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
13,653MWh
peak 2,984 MW · 18:30
Charged
19,564MWh
peak 3,174 MW
Net
-5,911MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
70%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$100-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
7,277MWh
-1,007
#2QLD
3,888MWh
-1,655
#3VIC
1,481MWh
-2,278
#4SA
1,006MWh
-971

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 57.9%
  • Coal57.9% · 115.7 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro3.1% · 6.2 GWh
  • Wind9.4% · 18.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.6% · 25.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.8% · 25.6 GWh
  • Battery3.6% · 7.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 58.1%
  • Coal58.1% · 110.2 GWh
  • Gas2.0% · 3.7 GWh
  • Hydro2.4% · 4.5 GWh
  • Wind14.6% · 27.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)9.5% · 18.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.5% · 21.8 GWh
  • Battery2.0% · 3.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 48.1%
  • Coal48.1% · 85.7 GWh
  • Hydro1.3% · 2.3 GWh
  • Wind37.0% · 65.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.2% · 5.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.6% · 17.0 GWh
  • Battery0.8% · 1.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 71.1%
  • Gas4.7% · 1.9 GWh
  • Wind71.1% · 28.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.8% · 0.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)19.9% · 8.0 GWh
  • Battery2.5% · 1.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 66.3%
  • Gas10.4% · 3.1 GWh
  • Hydro66.3% · 19.4 GWh
  • Wind20.1% · 5.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)3.3% · 1.0 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.5 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.5 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.6 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.2 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.7 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
35.7%
VIC · Daily renewable share
58.5%
QLD · Daily renewable share
44.6%
SA · Daily renewable share
86.0%
TAS · Daily renewable share
87.6%
Peak instantaneous
70.9%
at 12:10
Daily NEM-wide share
48.6%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    35.7%
  • VIC
    58.5%
  • QLD
    44.6%
  • SA
    86.0%
  • TAS
    87.6%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +29.0 GWh 8 —
NSW1-QLD1 −53.0 GWh 6 —
VIC1-NSW1 +44.1 GWh 10 —
V-SA −10.8 GWh 15 —
T-V-MNSP1 −2.9 GWh 3 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
304.3k tCO₂
▼ 18.9% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 100.9k tCO₂ 0.493 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 98.2k tCO₂ 0.513 tCO₂/MWh
SA 917 tCO₂ 0.023 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 102.5k tCO₂ 0.583 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.064 tCO₂/MWh