NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Friday 10 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-10

Market Snapshot

New South Wales average price leads NEM amid moderate demand peaks

Regional average prices ranged from 81.20 dollars in Tasmania to 100.50 dollars in New South Wales, with Tasmania seeing a brief volatility peak of 450.30 dollars. South Australia and Victoria recorded 32 negative price intervals combined, contrasting with the consistently positive pricing observed in the northern regions.

Coal-fired generation provided 58.1 percent of the total energy mix, while combined solar and wind assets contributed 23.4 percent of daily supply. Hydroelectric generation added a further 9.9 percent, and the renewable share reached an instantaneous peak of 55.4 percent at 11:30.

Battery storage systems discharged 17,097 megawatt hours to the grid, maintaining a net consumption position of 306 megawatt hours for the day. Total emissions were recorded at 408,548 tonnes of carbon dioxide, representing a 29.4 percent increase compared to the same day last week.

FCAS costs were concentrated in Tasmania, where the Raise Regulation service peaked at 368.00 dollars. Interconnector flows showed significant movement from Queensland into New South Wales, while Victoria exported net energy to both South Australia and New South Wales.

Today · Predispatch forecasts indicate a peak price of 319.04 dollars in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions expecting maximums below 150.00 dollars.

Why it matters · The daily average of 100.40 dollars sits 3.3 percent below the seven-day average, breaking a two-day trend of prices exceeding 120.00 dollars. This pricing occurred despite a significant 29.4 percent rise in emissions and a relatively low 34.1 percent renewable share compared to recent peak performance.

NSW $101VIC $85QLD $83SA $89TAS $81
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $40 $80 $120 $160 -$10 $33 $75 $118 $160 $0 $35 $70 $105 $140 -$10 $33 $75 $118 $160 -$10 $35 $80 $125 $170 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $101 $102 $52 $175 0 0
QLD $83 $85 $47 $151 0 0
SA $89 $91 -$6 $159 20 0
VIC $85 $89 -$1 $161 12 0
TAS $81 $84 -$1 $450 2 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
11,102MW
18:00
Trough
7,400MW
04:00
Energy
436.4GWh
QLD
Peak
7,793MW
18:05
Trough
5,275MW
14:10
Energy
306.9GWh
SA
Peak
1,949MW
18:25
Trough
692MW
13:45
Energy
69.5GWh
VIC
Peak
8,601MW
08:25
Trough
4,929MW
04:00
Energy
320.3GWh
TAS
Peak
1,553MW
08:15
Trough
1,050MW
02:15
Energy
60.8GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,3020$1210 July, 09:40
LOWERREG$8840$310 July, 06:30
RAISE6SEC$2140$010 July, 07:40
RAISE60SEC$1560$010 July, 07:45
LOWER60SEC$830$010 July, 13:25
RAISE5MIN$740$010 July, 07:05
LOWER5MIN$530$010 July, 16:00
LOWER6SEC$490$010 July, 13:25
Total$5,815

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,9850$1210 July, 09:40
LOWERREG$2,2920$310 July, 06:30
RAISE6SEC$4060$010 July, 07:45
RAISE60SEC$2250$010 July, 07:45
LOWER60SEC$1740$010 July, 13:25
LOWER6SEC$930$010 July, 13:25
RAISE5MIN$740$010 July, 07:05
LOWER5MIN$590$010 July, 16:00
Total$8,309

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,6470$1210 July, 09:40
LOWERREG$1,8660$310 July, 06:30
RAISE6SEC$4250$010 July, 07:40
RAISE60SEC$3620$010 July, 07:45
RAISE5MIN$1570$010 July, 07:05
LOWER60SEC$1260$010 July, 13:25
LOWER6SEC$630$010 July, 13:25
LOWER5MIN$400$010 July, 16:00
Total$9,687

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,3630$1210 July, 09:40
LOWERREG$2,4250$310 July, 06:30
RAISE6SEC$3940$010 July, 07:40
RAISE60SEC$2850$010 July, 07:45
LOWER60SEC$1660$010 July, 13:25
RAISE5MIN$1100$010 July, 07:05
LOWER6SEC$1040$010 July, 13:25
LOWER5MIN$860$010 July, 16:00
Total$8,934

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$19,4720$36810 July, 10:05
LOWER6SEC$6,2170$10710 July, 23:55
LOWERREG$5,8470$5010 July, 05:05
RAISE6SEC$4,9500$8310 July, 12:35
RAISE60SEC$6800$310 July, 23:35
LOWER60SEC$2490$010 July, 12:35
RAISE5MIN$330$010 July, 12:35
LOWER5MIN$330$010 July, 12:35
Total$37,480

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,559 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $141/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,417 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $126/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 827 MW at 08:30 as VIC spot hit $143/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 253 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $106/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,842 MW at 18:00 as TAS spot hit $119/MWh.

Discharged
5,448MWh
peak 1,559 MW · 18:00
Charged
4,409MWh
peak 756 MW
Net
+1,040MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
124%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,985MWh
peak 1,417 MW · 18:00
Charged
6,727MWh
peak 1,102 MW
Net
-743MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
89%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,340MWh
peak 827 MW · 08:30
Charged
4,737MWh
peak 771 MW
Net
-397MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
92%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,325MWh
peak 253 MW · 19:00
Charged
1,530MWh
peak 309 MW
Net
-206MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
87%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
17,097MWh
peak 3,842 MW · 18:00
Charged
17,403MWh
peak 2,393 MW
Net
-306MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
98%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$150$20023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,985MWh
-743
#2NSW
5,448MWh
+1,040
#3VIC
4,340MWh
-397
#4SA
1,325MWh
-206

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 69.9%
  • Coal69.9% · 155.6 GWh
  • Gas1.7% · 3.7 GWh
  • Hydro5.9% · 13.1 GWh
  • Wind3.4% · 7.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.3% · 18.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)7.5% · 16.8 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 5.4 GWh
  • Other0.9% · 1.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 64.8%
  • Coal64.8% · 136.4 GWh
  • Gas3.6% · 7.5 GWh
  • Hydro2.3% · 4.8 GWh
  • Wind8.2% · 17.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.9% · 18.8 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.3% · 19.5 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 6.0 GWh
  • Other0.2% · 0.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.3%
  • Coal60.3% · 113.1 GWh
  • Gas5.3% · 10.0 GWh
  • Hydro8.0% · 15.0 GWh
  • Wind13.9% · 26.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.7% · 6.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)6.5% · 12.3 GWh
  • Battery2.3% · 4.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 53.8%
  • Gas53.8% · 20.1 GWh
  • Wind19.4% · 7.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.9% · 2.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.2% · 6.4 GWh
  • Battery3.6% · 1.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 91.7%
  • Gas0.5% · 0.2 GWh
  • Hydro91.7% · 36.4 GWh
  • Wind5.8% · 2.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.9% · 0.8 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.4 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.4 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.5 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.1 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.0 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
23.3%
VIC · Daily renewable share
35.0%
QLD · Daily renewable share
35.9%
SA · Daily renewable share
39.9%
TAS · Daily renewable share
116.1%
Peak instantaneous
55.4%
at 11:30
Daily NEM-wide share
34.1%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    23.3%
  • VIC
    35.0%
  • QLD
    35.9%
  • SA
    39.9%
  • TAS
    116.1%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +43.6 GWh 0
NSW1-QLD1 −53.8 GWh 0
VIC1-NSW1 +19.2 GWh 9
V-SA −10.0 GWh 11
T-V-MNSP1 +6.3 GWh 7

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
408.5k tCO₂
▲ 29.4% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 137.4k tCO₂ 0.616 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 121.3k tCO₂ 0.568 tCO₂/MWh
SA 9.5k tCO₂ 0.250 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 140.3k tCO₂ 0.743 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 141 tCO₂ 0.004 tCO₂/MWh