Sunday 21 June 2026
Trading day 2026-06-21
South Australian and Tasmanian price spikes drive significant NEM market volatility
Regional price outcomes diverged sharply as South Australia averaged $512.10/MWh and Tasmania reached $152.40/MWh, while Queensland remained the lowest at $80.50/MWh. Both South Australia and Tasmania hit the $20,300.00/MWh price ceiling during the trading day, though New South Wales and Victoria remained below $183.00/MWh.
System demand peaked across most regions between 17:55 and 18:25, with New South Wales reaching a maximum load of 9,916 MW. Total emissions rose 11.2% compared to the same day last week, reflecting a generation mix dominated by 59.8% coal and 9.6% gas.
Renewable generation reached an instantaneous peak of 56.6% at 12:05, but the daily share settled at 29.8% with wind contributing only 4.1%. Hydro generation provided a steady 10.9% of the mix, while utility and rooftop solar combined for 14.3% of total energy.
Significant FCAS costs were incurred in Tasmania, where the RAISE6SEC service alone totaled $539,794.00 across four spike intervals. Battery assets recorded a net consumption of 4,633 MWh for the day, balancing 7,484 MWh of discharge against charging requirements.
Today · Forward schedules indicate a Queensland price peak of $319.04/MWh at 19:30, while other regions are forecast to remain below $145.00/MWh.
Why it matters · The daily average price of $174.40/MWh is more than triple the seven-day average, sharply breaking a week of sub-$70.00 pricing. This surge resulted from extreme price volatility in the southern regions coinciding with a low 4.1% wind share and an 11.2% increase in emissions.
Prices
Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average
| Region | Avg | VWAP | Min | Max | Neg | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | $92 | $95 | $42 | $183 | 0 | 0 |
| QLD | $81 | $82 | $36 | $124 | 0 | 0 |
| SA | $512 | $652 | $59 | $20300 | 0 | 0 |
| VIC | $89 | $92 | $38 | $177 | 0 | 0 |
| TAS | $152 | $167 | $27 | $20300 | 0 | 0 |
Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.
Demand
FCAS
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $12,962 | 0 | $20 | 21 June, 08:40 |
| LOWERREG | $1,624 | 0 | $9 | 21 June, 21:10 |
| RAISE60SEC | $390 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 18:15 |
| RAISE6SEC | $323 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 22:30 |
| LOWER60SEC | $98 | 0 | $2 | 21 June, 13:55 |
| RAISE5MIN | $96 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 21:45 |
| LOWER5MIN | $49 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 14:20 |
| LOWER6SEC | $21 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 14:10 |
| Total | $15,563 | |||
Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $17,045 | 0 | $20 | 21 June, 08:40 |
| LOWER6SEC | $11,703 | 0 | $14 | 21 June, 13:25 |
| LOWER60SEC | $10,472 | 0 | $15 | 21 June, 15:10 |
| LOWERREG | $3,480 | 0 | $9 | 21 June, 21:10 |
| LOWER5MIN | $1,021 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 14:45 |
| RAISE6SEC | $434 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 05:55 |
| RAISE60SEC | $237 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 07:15 |
| RAISE5MIN | $111 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 21:45 |
| Total | $44,503 | |||
Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $15,168 | 0 | $20 | 21 June, 08:40 |
| LOWERREG | $2,469 | 0 | $9 | 21 June, 21:10 |
| RAISE60SEC | $620 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 18:15 |
| RAISE6SEC | $517 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 22:30 |
| RAISE5MIN | $164 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 21:45 |
| LOWER60SEC | $105 | 0 | $2 | 21 June, 13:55 |
| LOWER5MIN | $21 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 14:20 |
| LOWER6SEC | $13 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 14:10 |
| Total | $19,077 | |||
Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $8,754 | 0 | $20 | 21 June, 08:40 |
| LOWERREG | $5,146 | 0 | $9 | 21 June, 21:10 |
| RAISE6SEC | $354 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 22:30 |
| RAISE60SEC | $270 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 18:15 |
| LOWER60SEC | $110 | 0 | $2 | 21 June, 13:55 |
| RAISE5MIN | $75 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 21:45 |
| LOWER5MIN | $45 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 14:20 |
| LOWER6SEC | $24 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 14:10 |
| Total | $14,778 | |||
Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISE6SEC | $538,166 | 4 | $20,290 | 21 June, 21:35 |
| RAISE60SEC | $234,723 | 2 | $20,290 | 21 June, 18:00 |
| RAISEREG | $206,790 | 4 | $20,300 | 21 June, 18:00 |
| LOWERREG | $5,091 | 0 | $12 | 21 June, 17:05 |
| LOWER6SEC | $1,735 | 0 | $3 | 21 June, 04:35 |
| LOWER60SEC | $1,401 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 04:05 |
| RAISE5MIN | $282 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 04:05 |
| LOWER5MIN | $2 | 0 | $0 | 21 June, 12:25 |
| Total | $988,190 | |||
Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
Battery dispatch
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 400 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $133/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 782 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $119/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 350 MW at 19:30 as VIC spot hit $143/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 506 MW at 18:30 as SA spot hit $317/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,867 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $128/MWh.
Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average
Regional dispatch ranking
| Region | Discharged | Net |
|---|---|---|
#1QLD | 2,639MWh | -1,721 |
#2SA | 2,187MWh | -102 |
#3VIC | 1,448MWh | -944 |
#4NSW | 1,210MWh | -1,866 |
Generation Mix
- Coal71.5% · 140.7 GWh
- Gas3.4% · 6.6 GWh
- Hydro4.5% · 8.8 GWh
- Wind2.4% · 4.7 GWh
- Solar (utility)7.6% · 15.0 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)10.0% · 19.8 GWh
- Battery0.6% · 1.2 GWh
- Coal65.4% · 117.6 GWh
- Gas10.1% · 18.2 GWh
- Hydro3.2% · 5.7 GWh
- Wind4.5% · 8.1 GWh
- Solar (utility)6.9% · 12.4 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)8.5% · 15.3 GWh
- Battery1.5% · 2.6 GWh
- Coal65.3% · 103.8 GWh
- Gas5.9% · 9.4 GWh
- Hydro12.5% · 19.9 GWh
- Wind6.4% · 10.1 GWh
- Solar (utility)3.3% · 5.3 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)5.8% · 9.2 GWh
- Battery0.9% · 1.4 GWh
- Gas64.7% · 23.9 GWh
- Wind4.6% · 1.7 GWh
- Solar (utility)7.2% · 2.7 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)17.6% · 6.5 GWh
- Battery5.9% · 2.2 GWh
- Hydro96.6% · 31.9 GWh
- Wind1.0% · 0.3 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)2.5% · 0.8 GWh
Renewables
- NSW 23.4%
- VIC 30.9%
- QLD 27.3%
- SA 30.1%
- TAS 102.3%
Interconnectors
| Region (proxy) | Net flow | Direction changes | Hours at limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-Q-MNSP1 | +23.7 GWh | 0 | — |
| NSW1-QLD1 | −25.5 GWh | 2 | — |
| VIC1-NSW1 | +13.3 GWh | 24 | — |
| V-SA | −10.2 GWh | 30 | — |
| T-V-MNSP1 | +1.6 GWh | 0 | — |
Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).
Emissions
| NSW | 127.8k tCO₂ | 0.664 tCO₂/MWh |
| QLD | 110.0k tCO₂ | 0.617 tCO₂/MWh |
| SA | 11.8k tCO₂ | 0.313 tCO₂/MWh |
| VIC | 125.3k tCO₂ | 0.802 tCO₂/MWh |
| TAS | 0 tCO₂ | 0.000 tCO₂/MWh |