RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 13 October 2026

The MT PASA results published on 13 October 2026 identifies annual unserved energy exceeds the reliability standard between:
- October 2027 - October 2028 in Victoria.

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER) for the following region(s) and periods:
- July 2028 in Victoria
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

MT PASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO's website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines.

This notice supersedes Market Notice 145486 published on 6 October 2026.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO's website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines.

This notice supersedes Market Notice 145388 published on 29 September 2026.

Forecasting

AEMO