NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Wednesday 30 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-30

Market Snapshot

QLD registers 10.2 hours of negative prices

Regional prices ranged from $49.1/MWh in QLD to $87.8/MWh in SA. QLD recorded 10.2 hours of negative prices across 122 intervals, reaching a minimum of -$245.6/MWh at 13:15. AEMO's notice at 13:10 stated prices for the 13:15 interval were subject to review. NSW had 1.2 hours of negative prices, and no region recorded capped intervals.

Demand peaked at 8741 MW in NSW at 18:20 and 7463 MW in QLD at 18:35. SA recorded a peak of 1688 MW at 19:00.

Coal generated 43.9 per cent of NEM energy, followed by wind at 20.1 per cent and rooftop solar at 15.5 per cent. Renewables reached an instantaneous peak of 78.8 per cent at 11:45. Batteries discharged 15,528 MWh with a net position of -2582 MWh.

FCAS costs were highest for the LOWER60SEC service at $98,095, with a peak price of $259/MW in QLD. Total emissions were 270,336 tCO2.

AEMO issued notices between 13:15 and 13:45 stating prices for intervals from 13:20 to 13:50 were subject to review.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts show QLD prices reaching $319.04/MWh at 19:30. SA is forecast to reach $145.0/MWh at 18:30.

In context · The QLD average of $49.1/MWh was below its 7-day average of $62.6/MWh, ranking sixth for the week. The NEM average was lower than the $97.2/MWh recorded on the same weekday last week.

NSW $63VIC $57QLD $49SA $88TAS $56
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $30 $60 $90 $120 -$10 $25 $60 $95 $130 -$40 $0 $40 $80 $120 $0 $35 $70 $105 $140 $0 $30 $60 $90 $120 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $63 $70 -$11 $115 14 0
QLD $49 $56 -$246 $110 122 0
SA $88 $90 $12 $143 0 0
VIC $57 $58 -$1 $135 4 0
TAS $56 $57 -$0 $110 2 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
8,741MW
18:20
Trough
3,900MW
12:50
Energy
313.8GWh
QLD
Peak
7,463MW
18:35
Trough
3,798MW
13:10
Energy
270.9GWh
SA
Peak
1,688MW
19:00
Trough
746MW
11:50
Energy
62.0GWh
VIC
Peak
6,170MW
18:45
Trough
4,114MW
04:15
Energy
251.8GWh
TAS
Peak
1,306MW
18:05
Trough
876MW
04:00
Energy
50.2GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,7010$1630 Sept, 16:05
LOWERREG$1,3780$730 Sept, 15:10
RAISE60SEC$3740$030 Sept, 07:55
RAISE6SEC$2040$030 Sept, 07:55
RAISE5MIN$480$030 Sept, 07:55
LOWER60SEC$270$030 Sept, 15:55
LOWER5MIN$210$030 Sept, 15:20
LOWER6SEC$200$030 Sept, 12:40
Total$9,773

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWER60SEC$97,8560$25930 Sept, 13:15
LOWER6SEC$80,0040$9830 Sept, 14:30
LOWER5MIN$8,5990$730 Sept, 14:30
RAISEREG$7,4050$1630 Sept, 16:05
LOWERREG$4,2590$1030 Sept, 15:15
RAISE6SEC$2930$030 Sept, 18:25
RAISE60SEC$2480$01 Oct, 00:00
RAISE5MIN$290$030 Sept, 20:20
Total$198,693

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$11,6220$1630 Sept, 16:05
LOWERREG$3,1740$730 Sept, 15:10
RAISE60SEC$8160$030 Sept, 07:55
RAISE6SEC$5970$030 Sept, 07:55
RAISE5MIN$1090$030 Sept, 07:55
LOWER60SEC$740$030 Sept, 15:55
LOWER5MIN$310$030 Sept, 15:20
LOWER6SEC$270$030 Sept, 12:40
Total$16,450

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,0880$1630 Sept, 16:05
LOWERREG$4,0320$730 Sept, 15:10
RAISE60SEC$5710$030 Sept, 07:55
RAISE6SEC$4330$030 Sept, 07:55
LOWER60SEC$1030$030 Sept, 15:55
RAISE5MIN$840$030 Sept, 07:55
LOWER5MIN$480$030 Sept, 15:20
LOWER6SEC$440$030 Sept, 12:40
Total$9,404

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,2860$1230 Sept, 12:40
LOWERREG$4,6810$251 Oct, 00:45
RAISE6SEC$5720$030 Sept, 04:05
RAISE60SEC$5490$030 Sept, 04:05
LOWER6SEC$770$230 Sept, 16:35
LOWER60SEC$350$030 Sept, 16:00
RAISE5MIN$70$030 Sept, 16:05
LOWER5MIN$10$030 Sept, 16:05
Total$14,209

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,402 MW at 19:00 as NSW spot hit $105/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,339 MW at 19:00 as QLD spot hit $94/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 574 MW at 18:30 as VIC spot hit $99/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 139 MW at 09:30 as SA spot hit $76/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,300 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $91/MWh.

Discharged
6,233MWh
peak 1,402 MW · 19:00
Charged
7,690MWh
peak 1,215 MW
Net
-1,457MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
81%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,122MWh
peak 1,339 MW · 19:00
Charged
6,367MWh
peak 1,121 MW
Net
-1,245MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
80%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,231MWh
peak 574 MW · 18:30
Charged
3,029MWh
peak 549 MW
Net
+202MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
107%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
942MWh
peak 139 MW · 09:30
Charged
1,025MWh
peak 213 MW
Net
-83MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
92%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
15,528MWh
peak 3,300 MW · 19:00
Charged
18,111MWh
peak 2,534 MW
Net
-2,583MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
86%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
6,233MWh
-1,457
#2QLD
5,122MWh
-1,245
#3VIC
3,231MWh
+202
#4SA
942MWh
-83

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 45.8%
  • Coal45.8% · 93.2 GWh
  • Gas0.6% · 1.3 GWh
  • Hydro3.7% · 7.4 GWh
  • Wind10.0% · 20.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)15.1% · 30.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)21.7% · 44.2 GWh
  • Battery3.1% · 6.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 51.2%
  • Coal51.2% · 102.3 GWh
  • Gas2.2% · 4.4 GWh
  • Hydro2.7% · 5.3 GWh
  • Wind12.4% · 24.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.6% · 23.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.1% · 34.2 GWh
  • Battery2.6% · 5.1 GWh
  • Other0.2% · 0.3 GWh
TOP FUEL 46.0%
  • Coal46.0% · 77.5 GWh
  • Gas0.1% · 0.2 GWh
  • Hydro2.7% · 4.6 GWh
  • Wind38.5% · 64.9 GWh
  • Solar (utility)4.7% · 8.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)6.0% · 10.1 GWh
  • Battery1.9% · 3.2 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.2 GWh
TOP FUEL 33.9%
  • Gas29.3% · 7.6 GWh
  • Wind33.9% · 8.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.8% · 1.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)27.5% · 7.1 GWh
  • Battery3.6% · 0.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 70.8%
  • Gas0.2% · 0.0 GWh
  • Hydro70.8% · 17.3 GWh
  • Wind25.8% · 6.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)3.2% · 0.8 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.6 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:007.9 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.7 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.7 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
48.4%
VIC · Daily renewable share
61.1%
QLD · Daily renewable share
51.6%
SA · Daily renewable share
44.8%
TAS · Daily renewable share
86.6%
Peak instantaneous
78.8%
at 11:45
Daily NEM-wide share
51.2%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    48.4%
  • VIC
    61.1%
  • QLD
    51.6%
  • SA
    44.8%
  • TAS
    86.6%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +33.1 GWh 2 —
NSW1-QLD1 −29.9 GWh 26 —
VIC1-NSW1 +29.4 GWh 8 —
V-SA −25.4 GWh 2 —
T-V-MNSP1 −2.7 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
270.3k tCO₂
▼ 11.8% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 81.9k tCO₂ 0.395 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 92.1k tCO₂ 0.454 tCO₂/MWh
SA 3.9k tCO₂ 0.150 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 92.3k tCO₂ 0.548 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 29 tCO₂ 0.001 tCO₂/MWh