NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Monday 28 September 2026

Trading day 2026-09-28

Market Snapshot

SA records 12.7 hours of negative prices as NEM averages $51.70

NSW recorded the highest average price at $72.80/MWh, followed by QLD at $67.90/MWh. SA averaged $34.50/MWh and reached a maximum of $358.60/MWh at 08:40. VIC averaged $33.70/MWh with 6.5 hours of negative prices, while TAS averaged $38.30/MWh with 5.2 negative hours.

NSW demand peaked at 9232 MW at 18:35, and QLD reached 7717 MW at 18:30. Coal contributed 46.6 per cent of the generation mix, wind provided 18.5 per cent, and rooftop solar added 15.2 per cent. Batteries discharged 16,004 MWh with a net output of 1055 MWh.

FCAS costs were highest for regulation services, with raise regulation costing $36,940 and lower regulation costing $21,847. Total emissions were 284,936 tonnes of carbon dioxide, up 7.5 per cent from the same weekday last week.

AEMO's notice at 14:23 stated a foreseeable intervention under clause 4.8.5A (a) of the NER in the SA region.

Today · Pre-dispatch forecasts show QLD reaching $319.04/MWh at 19:30 and SA reaching $145.00/MWh at 18:30.

In context · The NEM average of $51.70/MWh was below the seven-day average of $61.80/MWh, ranking fifth for the week. The SA average of $34.50/MWh was below its seven-day average of $53.60/MWh and lower than the $41.94/MWh recorded last Monday.

NSW $73VIC $34QLD $68SA $34TAS $38
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3.1-pro-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$10 $20 $50 $80 $110 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$40 $5 $50 $95 $140 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $73 $74 $15 $100 0 0
QLD $68 $69 $15 $103 0 0
SA $34 $47 -$58 $359 152 0
VIC $34 $39 -$21 $97 78 0
TAS $38 $41 -$22 $92 62 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
9,232MW
18:35
Trough
6,413MW
04:05
Energy
357.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,717MW
18:30
Trough
4,910MW
09:20
Energy
285.1GWh
SA
Peak
1,618MW
19:15
Trough
198MW
13:40
Energy
52.0GWh
VIC
Peak
6,548MW
18:45
Trough
2,839MW
13:10
Energy
231.2GWh
TAS
Peak
1,324MW
19:15
Trough
851MW
13:30
Energy
51.7GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,1200$1128 Sept, 23:40
LOWERREG$1,8000$428 Sept, 04:15
RAISE6SEC$1450$028 Sept, 05:35
RAISE60SEC$1290$028 Sept, 05:35
LOWER60SEC$960$028 Sept, 15:30
LOWER5MIN$410$028 Sept, 11:30
RAISE5MIN$400$028 Sept, 09:00
LOWER6SEC$380$028 Sept, 15:30
Total$7,409

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$6,9480$1128 Sept, 23:40
LOWERREG$2,7310$428 Sept, 04:15
RAISE6SEC$3130$028 Sept, 05:35
LOWER60SEC$2920$028 Sept, 15:30
RAISE60SEC$2340$028 Sept, 05:35
LOWER5MIN$660$028 Sept, 11:30
LOWER6SEC$490$028 Sept, 15:30
RAISE5MIN$470$028 Sept, 09:00
Total$10,679

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,6950$1128 Sept, 23:40
LOWERREG$1,9290$428 Sept, 04:15
RAISE60SEC$3660$028 Sept, 05:35
RAISE6SEC$3570$028 Sept, 05:35
LOWER60SEC$1110$028 Sept, 15:30
RAISE5MIN$1080$028 Sept, 09:00
LOWER6SEC$350$028 Sept, 15:30
LOWER5MIN$300$028 Sept, 11:30
Total$13,632

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,8330$1128 Sept, 23:40
LOWERREG$3,4540$428 Sept, 04:15
RAISE6SEC$2860$028 Sept, 05:35
RAISE60SEC$2480$028 Sept, 05:35
LOWER60SEC$1510$028 Sept, 15:30
LOWER6SEC$680$028 Sept, 15:30
LOWER5MIN$530$028 Sept, 11:30
RAISE5MIN$520$028 Sept, 09:00
Total$9,144

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
LOWERREG$11,9330$7528 Sept, 09:30
RAISEREG$9,3440$3628 Sept, 15:50
RAISE6SEC$8360$128 Sept, 17:25
RAISE60SEC$8270$028 Sept, 04:05
LOWER6SEC$2260$328 Sept, 23:05
LOWER60SEC$2070$128 Sept, 17:10
RAISE5MIN$100$028 Sept, 18:15
LOWER5MIN$00$028 Sept, 11:30
Total$23,383

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,378 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $88/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 994 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $85/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 977 MW at 19:00 as VIC spot hit $86/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 452 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $81/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,744 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $83/MWh.

Discharged
4,853MWh
peak 1,378 MW · 18:30
Charged
4,110MWh
peak 489 MW
Net
+743MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
118%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
4,070MWh
peak 994 MW · 18:30
Charged
4,460MWh
peak 802 MW
Net
-391MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
91%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,198MWh
peak 977 MW · 19:00
Charged
4,548MWh
peak 962 MW
Net
+649MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
114%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,885MWh
peak 452 MW · 19:00
Charged
1,831MWh
peak 491 MW
Net
+53MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
103%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
16,005MWh
peak 3,744 MW · 18:30
Charged
14,950MWh
peak 2,097 MW
Net
+1,055MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
107%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$50$0$50$100$15023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1VIC
5,198MWh
+649
#2NSW
4,853MWh
+743
#3QLD
4,070MWh
-391
#4SA
1,885MWh
+53

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 50.7%
  • Coal50.7% · 100.8 GWh
  • Gas0.9% · 1.8 GWh
  • Hydro3.8% · 7.5 GWh
  • Wind15.0% · 29.7 GWh
  • Solar (utility)13.8% · 27.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)12.4% · 24.7 GWh
  • Battery2.4% · 4.9 GWh
  • Other0.9% · 1.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 55.8%
  • Coal55.8% · 105.6 GWh
  • Gas2.3% · 4.4 GWh
  • Hydro1.1% · 2.0 GWh
  • Wind13.1% · 24.8 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.1% · 21.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)14.1% · 26.7 GWh
  • Battery2.2% · 4.1 GWh
  • Other0.3% · 0.6 GWh
TOP FUEL 50.7%
  • Coal50.7% · 82.6 GWh
  • Hydro0.5% · 0.8 GWh
  • Wind19.4% · 31.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.4% · 13.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.5% · 28.4 GWh
  • Battery3.2% · 5.2 GWh
  • Other0.4% · 0.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 59.1%
  • Gas6.0% · 2.8 GWh
  • Wind59.1% · 27.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)3.3% · 1.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)27.5% · 12.7 GWh
  • Battery4.1% · 1.9 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 72.8%
  • Gas13.1% · 3.1 GWh
  • Hydro72.8% · 17.0 GWh
  • Wind5.4% · 1.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)8.7% · 2.0 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.4 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.3 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:007.6 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.3 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.5 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
43.8%
VIC · Daily renewable share
51.4%
QLD · Daily renewable share
44.7%
SA · Daily renewable share
104.4%
TAS · Daily renewable share
68.1%
Peak instantaneous
70.2%
at 09:25
Daily NEM-wide share
49.5%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    43.8%
  • VIC
    51.4%
  • QLD
    44.7%
  • SA
    104.4%
  • TAS
    68.1%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +23.2 GWh 2 —
NSW1-QLD1 −32.0 GWh 16 —
VIC1-NSW1 +12.8 GWh 26 —
V-SA +11.7 GWh 10 —
T-V-MNSP1 −12.3 GWh 2 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
284.9k tCO₂
▲ 7.5% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 88.9k tCO₂ 0.446 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 94.9k tCO₂ 0.499 tCO₂/MWh
SA 1.4k tCO₂ 0.030 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 97.9k tCO₂ 0.596 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.8k tCO₂ 0.080 tCO₂/MWh