Saturday 19 September 2026
Trading day 2026-09-19
South Australian prices collapse to near zero amid high renewable penetration
Regional pricing showed a significant north-south divide, with New South Wales and Queensland averaging near $48/MWh while southern regions remained below $23/MWh. Negative pricing was prevalent across the market, occurring in 324 intervals in South Australia and 306 in Victoria. Tasmania saw the highest single price peak of $270.10/MWh despite its $22.40/MWh average.
Aggregate demand peaked in the evening, led by New South Wales at 8,104 MW at 18:35 and Queensland at 6,997 MW at 18:05. Total energy consumption for the day reached 825.8 GWh across all regions. South Australia recorded its peak demand of 1,422 MW very late in the day at 00:55.
Renewables contributed 55.6% of the total generation mix, driven by a combined solar share of 30.1% and wind at 21.0%. Coal provided 40.3% of the mix, while gas generation remained minimal at 0.9%. Batteries contributed 3.2% of dispatch, discharging 18,871 MWh throughout the trading day.
FCAS costs were concentrated in Tasmania, which recorded the highest regional prices for both Raise and Lower Regulation services. Lower Regulation was the most expensive service globally, totaling $87,249. Total daily emissions were 228,286 tCO2, marking a sharp decline from the previous week.
Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regions expecting peaks between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.
Why it matters · The daily average of $27.10/MWh sits significantly below the 7-day average of $41.59/MWh, breaking a two-day trend of rising prices. This price suppression coincided with a high 55.6% renewable share and extremely low gas utilisation of 0.9%, resulting in a 16.4% weekly drop in emissions.
Prices
Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average
| Region | Avg | VWAP | Min | Max | Neg | Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSW | $48 | $57 | -$11 | $127 | 218 | 0 |
| QLD | $48 | $58 | -$11 | $131 | 218 | 0 |
| SA | $2 | $24 | -$188 | $101 | 324 | 0 |
| VIC | $13 | $20 | -$57 | $112 | 306 | 0 |
| TAS | $22 | $25 | -$36 | $270 | 272 | 0 |
Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.
Demand
FCAS
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $4,541 | 0 | $8 | 19 Sept, 17:05 |
| LOWERREG | $950 | 0 | $10 | 19 Sept, 16:15 |
| RAISE60SEC | $116 | 0 | $0 | 20 Sept, 00:10 |
| RAISE6SEC | $114 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 23:10 |
| LOWER60SEC | $72 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 13:50 |
| LOWER5MIN | $61 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 16:05 |
| RAISE5MIN | $49 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 22:40 |
| LOWER6SEC | $29 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 13:50 |
| Total | $5,931 | |||
Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $10,905 | 0 | $8 | 19 Sept, 17:05 |
| LOWERREG | $3,654 | 0 | $10 | 19 Sept, 16:15 |
| LOWER60SEC | $361 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 13:50 |
| RAISE6SEC | $326 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 23:10 |
| RAISE60SEC | $284 | 0 | $0 | 20 Sept, 00:10 |
| LOWER5MIN | $225 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 16:05 |
| RAISE5MIN | $92 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 22:40 |
| LOWER6SEC | $74 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 13:50 |
| Total | $15,921 | |||
Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RAISEREG | $11,371 | 0 | $8 | 19 Sept, 17:05 |
| LOWERREG | $1,710 | 0 | $10 | 19 Sept, 16:15 |
| RAISE60SEC | $298 | 0 | $0 | 20 Sept, 00:10 |
| RAISE6SEC | $268 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 23:10 |
| LOWER60SEC | $161 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 13:50 |
| RAISE5MIN | $137 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 22:40 |
| LOWER5MIN | $59 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 16:05 |
| LOWER6SEC | $46 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 13:50 |
| Total | $14,048 | |||
Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOWERREG | $2,212 | 0 | $10 | 19 Sept, 16:15 |
| RAISEREG | $824 | 0 | $8 | 19 Sept, 17:05 |
| RAISE6SEC | $214 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 23:10 |
| LOWER60SEC | $180 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 13:50 |
| RAISE60SEC | $155 | 0 | $0 | 20 Sept, 00:10 |
| LOWER5MIN | $102 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 16:05 |
| LOWER6SEC | $68 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 13:50 |
| RAISE5MIN | $49 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 22:40 |
| Total | $3,804 | |||
Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
| Service | Cost | Spikes | Peak | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LOWERREG | $78,724 | 0 | $213 | 20 Sept, 00:35 |
| RAISEREG | $14,603 | 0 | $298 | 19 Sept, 08:35 |
| RAISE6SEC | $3,268 | 0 | $98 | 19 Sept, 17:40 |
| RAISE60SEC | $982 | 0 | $3 | 19 Sept, 17:40 |
| LOWER6SEC | $802 | 0 | $28 | 20 Sept, 00:25 |
| LOWER60SEC | $61 | 0 | $1 | 19 Sept, 17:35 |
| RAISE5MIN | $35 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 17:40 |
| LOWER5MIN | $3 | 0 | $0 | 19 Sept, 16:05 |
| Total | $98,477 | |||
Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.
Battery dispatch
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,630 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $72/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,295 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $74/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 1,296 MW at 19:00 as VIC spot hit $75/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 639 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $75/MWh.
Peak moment
Fleet discharged 4,602 MW at 19:00 as TAS spot hit $75/MWh.
Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average
Regional dispatch ranking
| Region | Discharged | Net |
|---|---|---|
#1NSW | 7,804MWh | -858 |
#2QLD | 5,474MWh | -758 |
#3VIC | 3,660MWh | -394 |
#4SA | 1,933MWh | -307 |
Generation Mix
- Coal41.4% · 87.8 GWh
- Gas0.5% · 1.0 GWh
- Hydro5.5% · 11.6 GWh
- Wind14.1% · 29.9 GWh
- Solar (utility)15.0% · 31.7 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)19.8% · 42.0 GWh
- Battery3.7% · 7.8 GWh
- Coal55.6% · 99.2 GWh
- Gas1.5% · 2.7 GWh
- Hydro1.8% · 3.3 GWh
- Wind6.2% · 11.0 GWh
- Solar (utility)9.4% · 16.7 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)22.1% · 39.4 GWh
- Battery3.1% · 5.5 GWh
- Other0.4% · 0.7 GWh
- Coal36.9% · 52.8 GWh
- Hydro0.3% · 0.5 GWh
- Wind37.3% · 53.3 GWh
- Solar (utility)7.1% · 10.2 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)15.8% · 22.7 GWh
- Battery2.6% · 3.7 GWh
- Gas4.3% · 1.8 GWh
- Wind55.7% · 22.9 GWh
- Solar (utility)1.4% · 0.6 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)33.8% · 13.9 GWh
- Battery4.7% · 1.9 GWh
- Gas0.2% · 0.0 GWh
- Hydro54.8% · 11.6 GWh
- Wind36.4% · 7.7 GWh
- Solar (rooftop)8.7% · 1.8 GWh
Renewables
- NSW 54.8%
- VIC 66.8%
- QLD 44.4%
- SA 99.6%
- TAS 80.0%
Interconnectors
| Region (proxy) | Net flow | Direction changes | Hours at limit |
|---|---|---|---|
| N-Q-MNSP1 | +5.3 GWh | 49 | — |
| NSW1-QLD1 | −12.4 GWh | 26 | — |
| VIC1-NSW1 | +12.7 GWh | 22 | — |
| V-SA | +7.7 GWh | 14 | — |
| T-V-MNSP1 | −10.3 GWh | 1 | — |
Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).
Emissions
| NSW | 76.8k tCO₂ | 0.354 tCO₂/MWh |
| QLD | 88.1k tCO₂ | 0.485 tCO₂/MWh |
| SA | 833 tCO₂ | 0.020 tCO₂/MWh |
| VIC | 62.5k tCO₂ | 0.435 tCO₂/MWh |
| TAS | 27 tCO₂ | 0.001 tCO₂/MWh |