NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Friday 31 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-31

Market Snapshot

South Australian prices surge as NEM emissions rise seventeen per cent

Regional price dispersion was significant, ranging from a low average of $74.60/MWh in Queensland to $187.90/MWh in South Australia. South Australia also saw the highest price volatility, with a daily maximum of $844.00/MWh, while New South Wales and Victoria peaked above $529.00/MWh.

Renewable generation provided 35.9% of total energy, reaching an instantaneous peak of 62.5% at 11:40. Solar utility and rooftop sources contributed a combined 19.2%, while wind generation remained lower at 5.4% of the total mix.

Batteries discharged 20,564 MWh to the grid, though the technology remained a net consumer with a balance of -3,514 MWh. Hydro generation supported the mix at 10.0%, while coal remained the primary source at 55.6%.

FCAS costs were highest in the Regulation Raise service, totaling $35,169 with Tasmania recording the peak price of $81.00/MWh. Total daily emissions reached 409,146 tonnes of CO2, a sharp increase compared to the same day last week.

Today · Forward schedules indicate a peak price of $319.04/MWh in Queensland at 19:30, with other regional peaks forecast between $61.84/MWh and $145.00/MWh.

Why it matters · The daily average of $154.60/MWh is more than double the 7-day average, extending a two-day trend of sharply rising prices. This price escalation coincided with a 17% rise in emissions and a low 5.4% wind contribution, despite batteries providing nearly 3% of total dispatch.

NSW $106VIC $135QLD $75SA $188TAS $121
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $95 $190 $285 $380 $0 $103 $205 $308 $410 $0 $58 $115 $173 $230 $0 $145 $290 $435 $580 $0 $90 $180 $270 $360 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $106 $112 $8 $532 0 0
QLD $75 $80 $3 $294 0 0
SA $188 $193 $66 $844 0 0
VIC $135 $140 $65 $530 0 0
TAS $121 $125 $40 $478 0 0

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
11,433MW
07:30
Trough
6,589MW
13:20
Energy
432.1GWh
QLD
Peak
7,542MW
18:00
Trough
4,345MW
10:50
Energy
291.1GWh
SA
Peak
2,138MW
08:15
Trough
983MW
14:55
Energy
75.5GWh
VIC
Peak
8,557MW
08:15
Trough
5,484MW
04:00
Energy
329.8GWh
TAS
Peak
1,500MW
07:50
Trough
1,046MW
15:05
Energy
57.0GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,2400$2031 July, 21:35
LOWERREG$7110$531 July, 15:20
RAISE6SEC$2050$031 July, 07:30
RAISE60SEC$1420$031 July, 06:30
LOWER60SEC$810$031 July, 14:50
LOWER5MIN$700$031 July, 15:50
RAISE5MIN$590$031 July, 06:30
LOWER6SEC$560$031 July, 14:50
Total$6,564

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$8,2860$2031 July, 21:35
LOWERREG$2,2580$531 July, 15:20
RAISE6SEC$4250$031 July, 07:30
RAISE60SEC$2440$031 July, 06:30
LOWER60SEC$2160$031 July, 14:50
LOWER6SEC$1160$031 July, 14:50
LOWER5MIN$890$031 July, 15:50
RAISE5MIN$730$031 July, 06:30
Total$11,707

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,4210$2031 July, 21:35
LOWERREG$1,7550$531 July, 15:20
RAISE6SEC$3630$031 July, 07:30
RAISE60SEC$2940$031 July, 06:30
RAISE5MIN$1190$031 July, 06:30
LOWER60SEC$1180$031 July, 14:50
LOWER6SEC$850$031 July, 14:50
LOWER5MIN$540$031 July, 15:50
Total$8,209

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,7010$2031 July, 21:35
LOWERREG$2,5280$531 July, 15:20
RAISE6SEC$8480$131 July, 08:35
RAISE60SEC$5350$031 July, 07:45
RAISE5MIN$2280$031 July, 08:35
LOWER60SEC$1510$031 July, 14:50
LOWER6SEC$1040$031 July, 14:50
LOWER5MIN$880$031 July, 15:50
Total$10,182

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$10,5210$8131 July, 08:05
LOWERREG$2,4170$231 July, 16:35
LOWER5MIN$60$031 July, 15:50
RAISE6SEC$00$031 July, 07:30
RAISE60SEC$00$031 July, 06:30
RAISE5MIN$00$031 July, 06:30
LOWER6SEC$00$031 July, 14:50
LOWER60SEC$00$031 July, 14:50
Total$12,944

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,572 MW at 18:00 as NSW spot hit $139/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,376 MW at 18:00 as QLD spot hit $118/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 964 MW at 07:30 as VIC spot hit $375/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 332 MW at 20:00 as SA spot hit $138/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,761 MW at 18:00 as TAS spot hit $174/MWh.

Discharged
7,881MWh
peak 1,572 MW · 18:00
Charged
9,304MWh
peak 1,323 MW
Net
-1,423MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
85%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,796MWh
peak 1,376 MW · 18:00
Charged
7,279MWh
peak 1,238 MW
Net
-1,484MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
80%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,020MWh
peak 964 MW · 07:30
Charged
5,690MWh
peak 692 MW
Net
-671MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
88%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
1,867MWh
peak 332 MW · 20:00
Charged
1,805MWh
peak 345 MW
Net
+63MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
103%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
20,564MWh
peak 3,761 MW · 18:00
Charged
24,078MWh
peak 3,122 MW
Net
-3,514MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
85%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW$0$200$400$60023:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1NSW
7,881MWh
-1,423
#2QLD
5,796MWh
-1,484
#3VIC
5,020MWh
-671
#4SA
1,867MWh
+63

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 64.9%
  • Coal64.9% · 157.5 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.3 GWh
  • Hydro3.0% · 7.4 GWh
  • Wind5.6% · 13.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)11.7% · 28.5 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.9% · 26.5 GWh
  • Battery3.2% · 7.9 GWh
TOP FUEL 59.6%
  • Coal59.6% · 125.0 GWh
  • Gas3.3% · 6.8 GWh
  • Hydro2.3% · 4.7 GWh
  • Wind8.2% · 17.2 GWh
  • Solar (utility)12.0% · 25.2 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)11.8% · 24.7 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 5.8 GWh
TOP FUEL 64.6%
  • Coal64.6% · 114.9 GWh
  • Gas6.1% · 10.8 GWh
  • Hydro13.0% · 23.1 GWh
  • Wind1.3% · 2.3 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.0% · 9.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)7.2% · 12.8 GWh
  • Battery2.8% · 5.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 62.3%
  • Gas62.3% · 26.4 GWh
  • Wind10.3% · 4.4 GWh
  • Solar (utility)5.5% · 2.3 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)17.4% · 7.4 GWh
  • Battery4.4% · 1.9 GWh
  • Other0.1% · 0.1 GWh
TOP FUEL 85.3%
  • Gas9.8% · 4.1 GWh
  • Hydro85.3% · 36.1 GWh
  • Wind2.4% · 1.0 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)2.4% · 1.0 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0010.2 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:008.9 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.3 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.0 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
32.3%
VIC · Daily renewable share
27.8%
QLD · Daily renewable share
42.5%
SA · Daily renewable share
33.8%
TAS · Daily renewable share
117.6%
Peak instantaneous
62.5%
at 11:40
Daily NEM-wide share
35.9%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    32.3%
  • VIC
    27.8%
  • QLD
    42.5%
  • SA
    33.8%
  • TAS
    117.6%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +46.8 GWh 0 —
NSW1-QLD1 −29.5 GWh 16 —
VIC1-NSW1 −21.7 GWh 5 —
V-SA −10.2 GWh 10 —
T-V-MNSP1 +20.1 GWh 0 —

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
409.1k tCO₂
▲ 17.0% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 137.9k tCO₂ 0.557 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 112.7k tCO₂ 0.529 tCO₂/MWh
SA 13.2k tCO₂ 0.304 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 142.8k tCO₂ 0.796 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 2.5k tCO₂ 0.060 tCO₂/MWh