NEM
NEM Daily analysis

Monday 13 July 2026

Trading day 2026-07-13

Market Snapshot

Tasmanian price volatility contrasts with negative average spot prices in South Australia

Regional average prices varied widely across the NEM, ranging from 115.90 dollars in Tasmania to negative 5.80 dollars in South Australia. South Australia saw 454 negative price intervals, while Victoria recorded 306 negative intervals and an average price of 15.70 dollars. Tasmania was the only region to hit the price cap, reaching 23,200 dollars per megawatt hour during two specific intervals.

Aggregate demand peaked in the evening, led by New South Wales at 10,971 megawatts at 18:45 and Victoria at 8,115 megawatts at 18:00. Total renewable energy share for the day was 48.4 percent, with rooftop and utility solar combining for 15.2 percent of the mix. Wind generation was the second largest source of energy at 27.3 percent, while gas contributed only 1.3 percent.

Battery storage systems discharged 15,843 megawatt hours into the grid, though the sector remained a net consumer with 3,069 megawatt hours of net charging. FCAS costs were concentrated in Tasmania, where the Raise Regulation service peaked at 217 dollars and Raise 6 Second reached 382 dollars. Interconnector flows showed 47,748 megawatt hours moving from Victoria to New South Wales to support northern demand.

Total daily emissions were 328,898 tonnes of carbon dioxide, reflecting a substantial decrease from the previous week. Despite the volatility in Tasmania, the broader market saw relatively subdued pricing in the mainland regions during the middle of the day.

Today · Forecasts indicate a peak price of 319.04 dollars in Queensland at 19:30 and 145.00 dollars in South Australia at 18:30.

Why it matters · The daily average price of 45.20 dollars sits 54.2 percent below the weekly average, continuing a three-day trend of declining prices. This low-price environment coincided with a high 68.4 percent renewable peak and negative pricing in 454 intervals in South Australia despite extreme volatility in Tasmania.

NSW $56VIC $16QLD $47SA $-6TAS $116
Numbers-only recap · gemini-3-flash-preview

Prices

Trading day · 04:00 → 04:00 AEST · 30-min average

NSW VIC QLD SA TAS
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 -$110 -$27 $55 $138 $220 -$10 $18 $45 $73 $100 -$80 -$35 $10 $55 $100 -$10 $988 $2.0k $3.0k $4.0k 04:00 10:00 16:00 22:00 04:00
Region Avg VWAP Min Max Neg Cap
NSW $56 $57 -$6 $99 8 0
QLD $47 $52 -$5 $101 78 0
SA -$6 -$4 -$204 $60 454 0
VIC $16 $19 -$757 $284 306 0
TAS $116 $127 -$16 $23200 134 2

Min · Max are 5-minute dispatch extremes; the price chart plots 30-minute averages, so its peak reads lower.

Demand

NSW
Peak
10,971MW
18:45
Trough
6,925MW
12:45
Energy
415.5GWh
QLD
Peak
7,966MW
18:05
Trough
4,090MW
12:30
Energy
293.4GWh
SA
Peak
2,119MW
19:15
Trough
1,366MW
04:00
Energy
79.9GWh
VIC
Peak
8,115MW
18:00
Trough
4,704MW
04:00
Energy
310.2GWh
TAS
Peak
1,382MW
18:05
Trough
949MW
00:45
Energy
56.1GWh

FCAS

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$7,2640$1613 July, 15:40
LOWERREG$6830$513 July, 15:40
LOWER60SEC$1760$113 July, 15:10
RAISE6SEC$1620$013 July, 09:10
RAISE60SEC$1380$013 July, 09:10
RAISE5MIN$600$013 July, 07:30
LOWER5MIN$600$013 July, 15:15
LOWER6SEC$590$013 July, 13:55
Total$8,602

Cost = NSW RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$5,9530$1613 July, 15:40
LOWERREG$2,1550$513 July, 15:40
LOWER60SEC$3880$113 July, 15:10
RAISE6SEC$2920$013 July, 09:10
RAISE60SEC$2010$013 July, 09:10
LOWER6SEC$960$013 July, 13:55
LOWER5MIN$780$013 July, 15:15
RAISE5MIN$440$013 July, 07:30
Total$9,208

Cost = QLD RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$9,6750$1613 July, 15:40
LOWERREG$1,8380$513 July, 15:40
LOWER60SEC$4670$113 July, 15:10
RAISE6SEC$2550$013 July, 09:10
RAISE60SEC$2440$013 July, 09:10
LOWER5MIN$1380$013 July, 15:15
LOWER6SEC$1030$013 July, 13:55
RAISE5MIN$950$013 July, 07:30
Total$12,815

Cost = VIC RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISEREG$4,1360$1613 July, 15:40
LOWERREG$3,3330$513 July, 15:40
LOWER60SEC$2780$113 July, 15:10
RAISE6SEC$2610$013 July, 09:10
RAISE60SEC$1990$013 July, 09:10
LOWER6SEC$930$013 July, 13:55
RAISE5MIN$810$013 July, 07:30
LOWER5MIN$560$013 July, 15:15
Total$8,438

Cost = SA RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

ServiceCostSpikesPeakWhen
RAISE6SEC$17,0190$38213 July, 10:35
RAISEREG$11,8970$21713 July, 10:35
LOWERREG$4,7100$5013 July, 08:55
RAISE60SEC$2,0540$313 July, 09:05
LOWER6SEC$3740$313 July, 09:35
LOWER60SEC$2820$313 July, 09:40
RAISE5MIN$2070$313 July, 09:35
LOWER5MIN$70$013 July, 10:40
Total$36,549

Cost = TAS RRP × cleared MW per 5-min interval.

Battery dispatch

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,287 MW at 18:30 as NSW spot hit $83/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 1,207 MW at 18:30 as QLD spot hit $84/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 558 MW at 20:00 as VIC spot hit $34/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 503 MW at 19:00 as SA spot hit $56/MWh.

Peak moment

Fleet discharged 3,080 MW at 18:30 as TAS spot hit $13/MWh.

Discharged
5,518MWh
peak 1,287 MW · 18:30
Charged
7,328MWh
peak 1,394 MW
Net
-1,811MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
75%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
5,621MWh
peak 1,207 MW · 18:30
Charged
6,603MWh
peak 1,323 MW
Net
-981MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
85%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
3,710MWh
peak 558 MW · 20:00
Charged
3,624MWh
peak 353 MW
Net
+86MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
102%
discharge / charge ratio
Discharged
995MWh
peak 503 MW · 19:00
Charged
1,358MWh
peak 266 MW
Net
-363MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
73%
discharge / charge ratio
NEM-wide
Discharged
15,843MWh
peak 3,080 MW · 18:30
Charged
18,912MWh
peak 2,890 MW
Net
-3,069MWh
discharge − charge
Round-trip
84%
discharge / charge ratio

Fleet net dispatch · spot-price overlay · 30-min average

Net MWdischarge ↑ · charge ↓NSWQLDVICSATAS$/MWh
-4.0 GW-2.0 GW0 MW2.0 GW4.0 GW-$2k$0$2k$4k23:3006:3713:4520:5204:00

Regional dispatch ranking

RegionDischargedNet
#1QLD
5,621MWh
-981
#2NSW
5,518MWh
-1,811
#3VIC
3,710MWh
+86
#4SA
995MWh
-363

Generation Mix

TOP FUEL 56.2%
  • Coal56.2% · 123.4 GWh
  • Gas0.5% · 1.1 GWh
  • Hydro3.6% · 8.0 GWh
  • Wind18.2% · 40.1 GWh
  • Solar (utility)8.8% · 19.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)10.2% · 22.3 GWh
  • Battery2.5% · 5.5 GWh
TOP FUEL 60.4%
  • Coal60.4% · 118.8 GWh
  • Gas2.4% · 4.8 GWh
  • Hydro3.0% · 5.8 GWh
  • Wind7.1% · 14.0 GWh
  • Solar (utility)10.3% · 20.4 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)13.7% · 26.9 GWh
  • Battery2.9% · 5.6 GWh
  • Other0.2% · 0.4 GWh
TOP FUEL 48.3%
  • Coal48.3% · 96.0 GWh
  • Hydro1.6% · 3.1 GWh
  • Wind43.1% · 85.6 GWh
  • Solar (utility)1.5% · 2.9 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)3.7% · 7.3 GWh
  • Battery1.9% · 3.7 GWh
TOP FUEL 83.4%
  • Gas2.4% · 1.1 GWh
  • Wind83.4% · 36.5 GWh
  • Solar (utility)2.4% · 1.1 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)9.5% · 4.2 GWh
  • Battery2.3% · 1.0 GWh
TOP FUEL 54.1%
  • Gas6.7% · 2.1 GWh
  • Hydro54.1% · 16.8 GWh
  • Wind37.9% · 11.7 GWh
  • Solar (rooftop)1.3% · 0.4 GWh
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:0011.8 GW 0
coalgashydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopotherBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.9 GW 0
coalhydrobattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:009.9 GW 0
gasbattery dischargewindsolar utilitysolar rooftopBattery (charge)
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:002.7 GW 0
gashydrowindsolar rooftop
23:3005:3711:4517:5200:001.8 GW 0

Renewables

NSW · Daily renewable share
38.3%
VIC · Daily renewable share
58.0%
QLD · Daily renewable share
39.7%
SA · Daily renewable share
91.7%
TAS · Daily renewable share
88.0%
Peak instantaneous
68.4%
at 12:00
Daily NEM-wide share
48.4%
By region (daily share)
  • NSW
    38.3%
  • VIC
    58.0%
  • QLD
    39.7%
  • SA
    91.7%
  • TAS
    88.0%

Interconnectors

Region (proxy) Net flow Direction changes Hours at limit
N-Q-MNSP1 +13.9 GWh 30
NSW1-QLD1 −48.0 GWh 0
VIC1-NSW1 +47.7 GWh 0
V-SA −8.5 GWh 28
T-V-MNSP1 −498 MWh 1

Per-region net of NETINTERCHANGE proxied to a representative interconnector. Full per-interconnector decomposition + hours-at-limit needs DINTERCONNECTOR parsing (follow-up).

Emissions

Total emissions
328.9k tCO₂
▼ 14.0% vs same day last week
Intensity by region
NSW 107.8k tCO₂ 0.485 tCO₂/MWh
QLD 104.8k tCO₂ 0.524 tCO₂/MWh
SA 417 tCO₂ 0.010 tCO₂/MWh
VIC 114.6k tCO₂ 0.577 tCO₂/MWh
TAS 1.2k tCO₂ 0.040 tCO₂/MWh