RESERVE NOTICE MT PASA 29 September 2026

The MT PASA results published on 29 September 2026 identifies annual unserved energy exceeds the reliability standard between:
- September 2027 - September 2028 in Victoria.
- September 2027 - September 2028 in South Australia

AEMO declares Low Reserve Conditions in accordance with clause 4.8.4 of the National Electricity Rules (NER) for the following region(s) and periods:
- July 2028 in Victoria and
- July 2028 in Soutn Australia
when forecast demand exceeds supply under some circumstances.

MT PASA informs the market of potential reliability issues to allow the market to respond in the first instance, potentially avoiding the need for any AEMO intervention.

For further information on MT PASA, please refer to:
https://www.aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data/Market-Management-System-MMS/Projected-Assessment-of-System-Adequacy.

For more information about how AEMO implements the reliability standard, please view the Reliability Standard Implementation Guidelines (RSIG) available on AEMO's website at https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/reliability-standard-implementation-guidelines.

This notice supersedes Market Notice 145307 published on 22 September 2026.

Forecasting